Chances of Getting into UC with low gpa?

I have a very low GPA for UC standards but my SAT scores are relatively okay,
and my EC’s are decent. I’m wondering what are my chances for getting accepted to a UC.
Going to a UC is pretty much my goal and if i have to do community and transfer then I would do that if im not accepted.
The only school I would not go to would be Merced. Other than that, what are my chances? (P.S i am in state student and applying for psych / neurosciences major if that makes any difference.)

High school UC GPA: 3.33
SAT (New out of 1600): 1400
EC: Volunteered in local school events for fundraisers as well as nearby park events. President of debate team at my school and participated/ won a couple of debate tournaments outside of school. member of a few extra clubs in school as well such as a business club and film club.

Ive also taken a few AP courses: AP psych( Score: 4 ) and AP English Lang ( Score: 3 ) the rest being honors courses as well.
I’ve also a few things that affected me during school which led to a low gpa, and are a topic to write about in my personal statements, but I’m not sure if that will help much.

UC’s are very GPA focused so unless you have a good explanation for your low grades but good tests scores, you need to consider UCR and UCSC as the most realistic choices. If you can address the low grades in the essay prompts, then there is always a chance at some of the other UC’s. If in-state consider some the Cal states for solid match/ safety schools.

For 2015, admit rate for applicants with a UC GPA of 3.0-3.39 at UCR was 25%. For UCSC, it was 10% and UCI was 2%.

http://universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/freshman-admissions-summary

Alright thank you so much, I do have valid reasons to explain, and for obvious reasons I wouldn’t post them here on the forum. And one last thing, would you recommend taking the ACT in addition to my SAT? would it help my chances at all or should i just end up taking SAT subject tests?

You have a competitive SAT, it is the your GPA which is the issue so definitely address it in the essay prompts. Depending upon your major, I would spend time on the Subject Tests but if you could fit in the ACT, it could not hurt.

Good Luck.