Chances/ top 10%

just got my grades from junior year back and i am class rank 46 out of 446. Would this include me in the top 10%? I am a California resident and got that letter promising acceptance to one UC if in the top 10%. Local to CP SLO
CSU GPA- 3.73
Sat-1130 (retaking)
ACT- probably gonna be a 27
Cheer 4 years
Senior class VP
(low 3.3 gpa sophomore year due to celiac diease)
Do i have good chances at CSU’s? Applying to SDSU, SJSU CP SLO and Fullerton. For UC’s I am applying to UCSC (dream school) and several lower ones. Also applying to U of Arizona, U of Oregon and George Fox University (scholarship offer)

Actually it is the top 9% of your HS class or in-state that makes you ELC eligible. ELC eligibility only guarantees you a spot a UC Merced if you do not accepted into your choice UC.

Cal Poly SLO uses 9-11th grades unlike the rest of the UC’s and CSU’s. What is your intended major?
Being local to SLO gives a slight boost for your MCA score points (500).

Other than SLO which uses MCA points, the rest of the CSU’s use eligibility index.
(CSU GPAx800) + (SAT Math+CR) or (CSU GPAx200) + (ACT compx10).
EI for SAT is 4124 and for ACT it is 1106.

For SDSU, just due to the huge number of applicants, I would strive for an EI of 4200 SAT or 1100. I would say 50/50 chance presently (High Match).
SJSU, other than CS, it should be a Match school.
SLO will depend upon major, but anywhere from a 50/50- High Match to Reach
Fullerton looks like a Match school.

UCSC: High Match
UCR: Match-High Match
UCM: Match

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79:

UCB: 2%
UCLA: 3%
UCSD: 6%
UCD: 15%
UCSB: 14%
UCI: 13%
UCSC: 59%
UCR: 78%
UCM: 92%

Cannot comment on the rest but good luck.

You wouldn’t be included under the UC statewide top 9%. There is an online calculator that you can use- but I’m pretty sure you would need a ACT of about 33 or above to be in the top 9% statewide with a 3.73.

How would I calculate my MCA? For cal poly my major would be business administration

https://admissions.calpoly.edu/prospective/profile.html

MCA information:

Academic MCA:

The maximum GPA they will use is 4.2, even though you can have a higher calculated CP GPA. A 4.2 is worth 2250 MCA points. Thus, multiply your CP GPA by 535.7 and you’ll get your MCA points for GPA.

The next biggest thing is test scores. The odd thing, likely because they wanted it to total a nice round number, is that the max score is 1650, even though the max SAT score is 1600. Multiply the total of your best SAT CR and your best SAT math by 1.03125 to get your MCA test points. If you took the ACT, they convert and vice versa.

The third largest section is the class rigor score, worth 750 points. In this section you get zero points for meeting the minimum admission requirements and adders for more than the minimum. The bonuses in order of power are (min semesters/max total semesters/bonus per extra semester/total possible bonus): math 6/10/125/500 (note: stats and finite do not count), lab science 4/8/50/200, English 8/10/50/100, foreign language 4/8/25/100, visual performance 2/4/25/50, no bonus points for social sciences or electives. As with GPA, you can actually score higher than the maximum, but 750 is the most they will count.

Finally, work and ECs, worth 350 points. Work (hours per week/bonus): 0/0, 1-5/20, 6-10/40, 11-15/60, 16-20/80, 21+/100, add 50 points if work is major related. ECs (hours per week/bonus): 0/0, 1-5/30, 6-10/60, 11-15/90, ‪16-20/120‬, 21+/150, add 60 points for leadership role.

There are also other Non-Academic Bonus Points:

CA vet/701, Hayden Partner School/700, faculty/staff dependent/700, service area of CP/500, either parent with some or no HS, but who DIDN’T GRADUATE FROM HS/300 (per parent).

Lastly,

Cal Poly ACT/SAT Concordance Chart in case you took ACT (use only Math and English and figure out the two equivalent SAT scores)

ACT CR M

‪36 800 800‬
‪35 770 790‬
‪34 760 780‬
‪33 750 760‬
‪32 720 730‬
‪31 700 700‬
‪30 680 680‬
‪29 650 660‬
‪28 630 640‬
‪27 610 620‬
‪26 590 600‬
‪25 570 580‬
‪24 550 560‬
‪23 540 540‬
‪22 520 520‬
‪21 500 500‬
‪20 490 480‬
‪19 470 460‬
‪18 450 440‬
‪17 440 410‬
‪16 420 390‬
‪15 400 360‬
‪14 380 330‬
‪13 360 300‬
‪12 330 280‬
‪11 300 260‬

http://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/freshman/california-residents/local-path/

http://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/freshman/california-residents/admissions-index/index.html

all the CSUs except SLO are really likely to take you, as are AZ and OR. UCSC, probably not but, a compelling application could get you in so, it is worth an ap. UCR and UCM are more likely admits.
Good luck