<p>First of all you did not say this in the first place. You simply said no they won’t retire, at least for another 20 years. Secondly, there are a lot of baby boomers age 55 to 65 so your argument doesn’t really hold up. Yes, it is feasable to think that a 46 year old might work another 20 years (age 66 at retirement) but this is the youngest age according to your source for a baby boomer. Someone who is currently 50 would be 70 when they retire if they work another 20 years. This is pretty unlikely for many people. Anyone currently older than 50 will probably not work another 20 years. Many baby boomers are in their late 50s and early 60s as we speak. The point is in the next ten years, there will be many people retiring in the engineering industry. I’ve worked with many people in this 55 to 65 range in the engineering field and trust me they are not going to work until they are 75 or 85.</p>
<p>Please, for the love of God, please don’t cite Wikipedia as a source. Some of the articles are well policed, but still anyone can cite anything and the people who police each article don’t always know what they are talking about either.</p>
<p>Rheidzan loses this argument simply <em>because</em> he cited Wikipedia as a source, I think.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I’ll just offer myself as a data point, although I am a software engineer, not a civil engineer. I am a baby boomer who will turn 50 next year. I anticipate that I will probably have to work at least until I’m 70 because of diminishing Social Security and Medicare benefits, increased healthcare expenses due to age, not to mention three years of salary I have to earn to make up for past unemployment (assuming I continue to be employed).</p>
<p>You have to take into account that things have changed, even for the boomers who might have otherwise retired in the next few years. To work off their debts, get their kids through college, and so forth, they have to work longer, and are subject to the same types of concerns about benefits and healthcare that I am. Assuming the rate of people who graduate with engineering degrees does not slow greatly, but the ability for US citizens to pay taxes to support infrastructure (or other) projects continues to be what it is, we should see continued increased competition for engineering jobs. I haven’t even mentioned the effect of outsourcing, bringing in non-US citizens on work visas, etc.</p>
<p>Even our political and economic leaders are starting to be cautious about predicting the future for employment. They just don’t know because they don’t have enough information – in particular they can’t predict how US citizens (or citizens of other countries, even) will feel about spending, etc.</p>
<p>So at least, there is a good possibility of continued increased competition for jobs, which means a lot of qualified engineering graduates could go jobless, or at least underemployed (doing whatever is necessary to pay down debt).</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I’ll go out on a limb here and say that there might be a need for more civil engineers but not enough money to pay all of the civil engineers who want employment because it couldn’t be raised through taxes or bonds. There are (and have been) throughout history plenty of societies that got by as best they could on a crumbling infrastructure when their governments couldn’t raise enough money to fix said infrastructure.</p>
<p>Still, 50 is towards the younger end of the baby boomers. There are so many variables, every person invests differently, plans for retirement differently, has different retirement plans, etc… I’m not going to argue that some baby-boomers won’t work until they are 70. What about the baby boomer age 55-65? They will very likely not work another 20 years. Many will retire within the next few years. I stand by my assertion that within the next 10 years there will be many engineers retiring. I’ve seen that in my field (mechanical), there are many engineers that are age 50 or older. I don’t think anyone can dispute this. Perhaps computer science and software engineering is a bit different, seeing as how it is more of a new field compared to say mechanical or civil.</p>
<p>I don’t think America’s infrastructure is going to crumble either. There will always be funding for certain infrastructre essentials like bridges, water distribution, etc. The fact is that the economy will improve sooner or later and the recession will be a thing of the past. Construction will turn around along with countless other industries. I think some of the posts on this thread that paint a picture of doom and gloom for all engineers are nothing but a big overreaction. In the coming years, I am confident that there will be plenty of demand for engineers as well as plenty of opportunities as the aging workforce retires.</p>
<p>The job reports for last month just came out, and things have only gotten worse.</p>
<p>From:</p>
<p>[Unemployment</a> holds, 36,000 jobs lost in February jobs report - Mar. 5, 2010](<a href=“http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/05/news/economy/jobs_february/]Unemployment”>http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/05/news/economy/jobs_february/)</p>
<p>“Unemployment in the construction industry rose to a rate of 27.1%, up from 24.7% in the previous month and by far the highest rate of any sector.” (the national unemployment rate for all jobs remained at 9.7%)</p>
<p>That 19% unemployment stat quoted in the newspaper article on my first post looks pretty good right now. For comparison, today’s article says that “Retail, construction and factory workers were the most likely to be impacted by inclement weather, and all three sectors took a hit in February”.</p>
<p>Retailers lost just 400 jobs.
Manufacturing actually gained 1000 jobs.
Construction? 64,000 jobs lost!
Since 36,000 jobs were lost throughout the whole economy, we actually GAINED jobs last month if you don’t include construction.</p>
<p>The issue here isn’t whether civil engineering will be good ten years from now (it probably will be); it’s whether civil engineering will be good in the near future. Today’s graduates and those graduating a year or two from now cannot afford to wait ten years, and by the time civil engineering does recover, employers would be more likely to hire new grads than hire people who’ve graduated many years ago and have taken jobs in other industries since then.</p>
<p>
Interesting reference point: The unemployment rate during the Great Depression peaked in 1933. That rate was 24.9%, which is lower than today’s unemployment rate for the construction industry. Source:</p>
<p>[Compensation</a> from before World War I through the Great Depression](<a href=“http://www.bls.gov/opub/cwc/cm20030124ar03p1.htm]Compensation”>http://www.bls.gov/opub/cwc/cm20030124ar03p1.htm)</p>
<p>The thing about it is, the CONSTRUCTION industry, the actual <em>building</em> part of it, lags way behind economic downturns because it takes about a year for most large projects to get underway. YES, we’re going to see an overall job loss for about another year in the INDUSTRY.</p>
<p>Things will turn around for engineers shortly; we’re already starting to see recovery. Bleeding in civil/structural engineering and architecture has stopped, and we’re starting to see a ton of projects kick off. They’ll be hiring shortly. Then those projects will be coming down the pipeline in design for about a year, then we’re going to see recovery overall. It’s already happening.</p>
<p>This is not a surprise. Things are going to be bad for a while if you’re a mudder or a rodbuster or a welder or a carpenter or a glazier or whatever, and that’s what the majority of the industry is. Things aren’t going to be bad for much longer if you’re an engineer.</p>
<p>You really do need to take the context into account with these sorts of things, otherwise you’re not going to understand the entire picture.</p>
<p>I find it funny how people with jobs keep saying how the economy isn’t all that bad. Sure, there are jobs for experienced people, but the number of entry level jobs is painfully low. Hardly anyone I know in CE has a job offer waiting for them upon graduation. Many people who graduated in Decemeber have nothing. I’m a top student and I have internship experience as well as research experience. Apparently, this is still not enough. I’ve had a few interviews but no offers. Maybe I interview terribly, I don’t know, but I have been told by a few interviewers that I interviewed very well. That being said, if any one of you with jobs knows of an entry level position in your office, here’s my resume.</p>
<p>PROFILE </p>
<p>A high achieving, civil engineering graduate with laboratory and corporate experience looking to apply analytical thinking skills to real world situations.</p>
<p>EDUCATION </p>
<p>Texas A&M University at College Station
Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering, GPA 3.77/4.00
Projected graduation: May, 2010</p>
<p>EXPERIENCE </p>
<p>El Paso Exploration and Production, Houston, TX
Environmental Intern. Analyzed equipment in order to reduce fugitive emissions and increase efficiency. Developed strategies for environmental field sampling. Assisted in spill/release prevention and cleanup. Developed new ideas for how to respond to pending Cap-and-Trade legislation.
Summer 2009</p>
<p>High Bay Structural and Materials Testing Laboratory, College Station, TX
Student Worker. Assisted in test setup of various research projects. Performed general maintenance and cleanup of laboratory equipment. Drafted technical drawings and analyzed data for various projects.
February - May 2009</p>
<p>Texas Transportation Institute, College Station, TX
Student Worker. Assisted graduate students in bridge specimen construction. Drafted technical drawings of various specimens. Assisted in testing operations of bridge and connection specimens. Performed grout mixing and testing.
January - August 2008</p>
<p>CVS Pharmacy, Houston, TX
Store Clerk. Developed film, cashiered, stocked shelves, and performed day to day maintenance of the store.
November 2005 – July 2006, December 2006 – January 2007, December 2007 – January 2008</p>
<p>HONORS </p>
<p>Dean’s Honor Roll, Fall 2007, Spring 2008, Spring 2009
Chi Epsilon Honor Society Member
Bob Mace Scholarship
James R. ’45 & Billie S. Nichols Scholarship</p>
<p>SKILLS </p>
<p>AutoCAD
SolidWorks
Microsoft Office Suite</p>
<p>^^</p>
<p>Sorry to hear about your luck. I’m just throwing ideas out there, but have you thought about trying to stick with the oil industry? You have some relevant experience, TAMU has a lot of recruiting for it, and CEs are usually welcome for a lot of the upstream positions. </p>
<p>I’m sure you’ve thought of this yourself, but just in case…</p>
<p>My take, look outside of building/construction - engineering degrees are pretty versitile so you should be able to find something in an industry that hasn’t been hit so hard.</p>
<p>Aggie, no one here is disputing the fact that the job market is bad right now. What I am disputing is people on this thread with no experience and no perspective on the economy who are preaching that engineering is a not worth while just as a knee jerk reaction to current economic conditions. My responses have been that every profession is hurting right now and in the long run, engineering will be a great industry to be in. Trust me, in the coming years there will be many opportunities in the engineering field as current engineers retire. In the meantime, good luck in the job hunt.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>You guys who are saying that there will be a recovery in a year or so, I’d like to ask where you bought your crystal balls from.</p></li>
<li><p>Those saying that we gotta look at the big picture, what are the economic fundamentals that will lead us to recovery? How can there be recovery in the near future if we have destroyed the engine of our economy? [The</a> Plight of American Manufacturing | The American Prospect](<a href=“http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_plight_of_american_manufacturing&source=patrick.net]The”>http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_plight_of_american_manufacturing&source=patrick.net)</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Maybe you smart youngins can enlighten me…</p>
<p>Not sure who you are calling a youngin but if sarcasm is going to be the theme here, I guess it is only a matter of time before we are living in caves and hunting with bows and arrows because the economy is going to crash and it is practically the end of the world. We will all be sent back to the stone age so there is no point in even going to college. </p>
<p>Look, the economy is already turning around. If you look at the history of the stock market it looks like a sine wave. It goes up and it goes down. This is just how it goes. The economy goes in cycles. My point on this thread is that everyone should not abandon engineering because the job market is tough right now. I can tell you that 5 years from now the recession will be a thing of the past and there will be high demand for engineers. Look at how far the stock market has come since last spring. We are getting there.</p>
<p>rheidzan’s ‘youngen’ comments remind me…</p>
<p>I think our perspective towards the recession is limited in the sense that none of us have been through one before…this is our first experience with a recession (including rheidzan), i mean no one here was looking for a job or graduated in the midst of the last recession…I value my parents perspective because they went through it you know…then my kids will look to me for perspective if there should be (and of course there will) another recession in 30 yrs.</p>
<p>
I agree.</p>
<p>However, so far no one has been able to answer my question: what are the economic fundamentals that will lead us to recovery? How can there be recovery in the near future if we have destroyed the engine of our economy?</p>
<p>rheidzan, I’m curious as to what you believe the construction industry will be like in 10 years. It sounds to me that you think everything will just crumble and nothing will be rebuilt.</p>
<p>
Well ken,
If it crumbles and if they are essentials, they will be rebuilt – today, next year or 10 years from now. However, the question is: what else are essentials?
I can tell you that I’m pretty busy with my water and wastewater projects. However, water/wastewater only represents a small fraction of the whole industry.</p>
<p>Thanks to outsourcing, the good jobs we had are never coming back (at least not in the near future). How do you expect consumers to spend the money they don’t have? By taking more debt? And that’s good, how?
Now that we have a glut of housing inventories and a consumerless recovery, it’s gonna effect the construction industry as a whole.
Now that the property prices are depressed and municipals and states don’t have enough tax $ coming in, who and how do you think they’re gonna finance these projects?</p>
<p>I, too, have lots of positive points regarding the state of the industry, but I don’t feel the need to share em because there are many optimistic people here already.
But here’s the bottom line, I’m not trying to spread doom and gloom. God knows if 10 years from today construction will be as it was during the housing boom.
It’s just these are some unanswered questions that are mind boggling to me.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Obviously there will be fluctuations, but I think youd have to admit that there are more than a few troubling signs that go beyond a typical recession. </p>
<p>America, despite its resiliency, has never overcome anything close to a national debt equaling the GDP. About three and a half years ago I took an econ class with a prof who told me the national debt is a problem, but not a problem as serious as people make it out to be. So, I asked why this was… He responded that as a percentage of GDP the debt wasnt that large, it was around 6-7 trillion at that time. Meaning, since I took that class its nearly doubled, leaving a yet to be seen inflationary period that may very well be unlike anything weve ever seen. </p>
<p>Service industry accounts for some 80% of GDP, meaning, the majority of what we produce isnt tangible. Why is this a problem, in my view at least? Because we are now reliant upon foreign markets for the goods we consume, leaving little bargaining chips on the table when determining foreign policy. Indebted so heavily that if the current spending rate persists, China and others may demand higher interests rates or stakes of ownership in tangible goods. This, all the while ignores the major national security problems that arise if, in all hopes that it wont, relationships with these countries deteriorate into a war front.</p>
<p>A military stretched too thin for its own good, a people so diverse they cant organize, bank breaking state tax shortfalls, dwindling employer benefits, debt ridden citizens, a rapidly widening income gap, party-line politics that fail to accomplish anything, trade deficits that are grotesque, the list goes on </p>
<p>Cyclical swings are expected, but many of these are long term problems not caused by the recession. The construction industry is but a small part, what will drive the U.S. economy in the future? Banking, healthcare? </p>
<p>Rant? lol</p>
<p>Oh stop your fear mongering purduefrank. I really don’t think those social problems are as serious as you’re making them out to be…</p>
<p>But I have to admit, I’m only saying that because I’m scared to believe it.</p>