<p>anyone know the cutoff for CA?</p>
<p>Hi All. Nobody can tell you exactly what the cutoffs are going to be. You can compare this year’s numbers to years past & make an educated guess, but no one will know for sure until August. My gut says that the cutoffs will make a correction and bump up a little higher this year, but I’ve only looked at 1 state and the national profile. Best of luck to all who are waiting!</p>
<p>Anyone know if I will make the cutoff? Last year it was 211, 2 years ago it was 214. I got a 212.</p>
<p>neesay - you haven’t posted enough info for anyone to help you out (your state and the info about scores for the past few years) but in general the cutoff scores for this year will probably be closer to the cutoffs from 2 years ago. You will be on the bubble until September.</p>
<p>So when I register for the May SATs, should I have my score sent to National Merit? Will it count against me if they’re not over 2000 and my retakes are? I haven’t taken the SATs before. I got a 223, so I’m pretty sure I’ll be a semifinalist.</p>
<p>Yes, have your score sent. If it’s not high enough, you’ll have to take it again and send it again, but it won’t hurt you.</p>
<p>How likely am i to make national merit semifinalist?
the data necessary is there in post # 240 but i will put it here again.
I got a 217 and I live in Oregon.
The cutoff was 216(highest ever in the state) for the class of 2012 and 213 for the class of 2013.
I am kind of scared because the percentage of people in the 70-75 and 75-80 ranges for each section seems artificially high this year.
Here are the state summary reports.
Class of 2012-<a href=“http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/OR_2010_05_02_01.pdf”>http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/OR_2010_05_02_01.pdf</a>
Class of 2013-<a href=“http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/OR_12_05_02_01.pdf”>http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/OR_12_05_02_01.pdf</a>
Class of 2014-<a href=“http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/OR_13_05_02_01.pdf”>http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/OR_13_05_02_01.pdf</a></p>
<p>If you’re above the highest ever, it seems a good chance. Reading anything on collegeconfidential is going to make the percentages seem artificially high. Remember that the mean scores are like 47s*3=141. Congrats for being above average!</p>
<p>I have read many of the posts in this forum with great interest, and appreciate the information and opinions shared. Here are a couple of observations about NMSF cutoff scores and a prediction for Illinois’ class of 2014 cutoffs. I collected data from NMSC’s website, and [PSAT-</a> National Merit Scholarships and Semifinalist State Cutoff Scores](<a href=“http://bigdogacb.hubpages.com/hub/National-Merit]PSAT-”>http://bigdogacb.hubpages.com/hub/National-Merit), and I am open to corrections or comments about these observations.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>All cutoff scores dropped except Lousiana (which stayed the same) from class of 2012 to class of 2013</p></li>
<li><p>Cutoff scores between class of 2011 and class of 2012 went up or stayed the same in all but 5 states [PA (-1), AK (-2), ME (-1), LA (-1), NE (-1)]</p></li>
<li><p>Alaska had the biggest drop in scores from year-to-year since 2009 – 8-point drop between class of 2012 and class of 2013 </p></li>
<li><p>Nevada had the biggest increase in cutoff scores from year-to-year since 2009 – 6-point gain between class of 2010 and class of 2011</p></li>
<li><p>Since 2009, there have been two 5-point increases in cutoff scores from year-to-year (UT and VT)</p></li>
<li><p>Since 2009, there have been eight 4-point increases in cutoff scores from year-to-year (TX, RI, FL, AZ, KY, ID, NM, MT) </p></li>
<li><p>I will agree that the class of 2012 cutoff scores were unexpectedly high, but not as much as the class of 2013 cutoff scores were low. My point is that I believe the class of 2013 cutoff scores are more of an anomaly than the class of 2012 cutoff scores.</p></li>
<li><p>My belief is similar to many already expressed that the class of 2014 cutoff scores will be very close to the class of 2012 cutoff scores (probably ± 1 or 2 points)</p></li>
<li><p>For Illinois --I compared class of 2012 state results with class of 2014 state results, and the number of students who scored in the upper ranges (summed for all 3 areas) like this:
grad yr. (# NMSF)
2012 (715) 2,172 students who scored in 75-80 range (summed for all three sections)<br>
2012 (715) 5,520 students who scored in 70-80 range (summed for all three sections)</p>
<h2>2012 (715) 13,984 students who scored in 65-80 range (summed for all three sections)</h2>
<p>2013 (716) 1,563 students who scored in 75-80 range (summed for all three sections)<br>
2013 (716) 5,174 students who scored in 70-80 range (summed for all three sections)</p>
<h2>2013 (716) 13,208 students who scored in 65-80 range (summed for all three sections)</h2>
<p>2014 (TBD) 2,062 students who scored in 75-80 range (summed for all three sections)<br>
2014 (TBD) 6,150 students who scored in 70-80 range (summed for all three sections)
2014 (TBD) 13,884 students who scored in 65-80 range (summed for all three sections)</p></li>
<li><p>For Illinois --Compared to the class of 2012, this year’s class of 2014 students scored much better in reading, worse in math, and better in writing</p></li>
</ul>
<p>So, my prediction for Illinois class of 2014 NMSF cutoff score on the PSAT is: 217
(highest it has ever been, one point higher than class of 2012 cutoff score, and four points higher than the class of 2013 cutoff score)</p>
<p>As I said at the beginning of the message, corrections or comments are welcomed. I am interested in reading any other prognostications, and would love to see a list of projections compiled ala <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/14479926-post261.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/14479926-post261.html</a></p>
<p>Anyone have similar statistics for other states?</p>
<p>IlFather:
I have done this analysis as well. The only contrary thought is that some believe that for the larger states (such as Illinois) the category more closely related to driving the cutoff is the top range of 75-80. In that category, 2014 is actually a little lower than 2012. That might indicate a cutoff of 216 or even 215. The unknown is the level of high school graduates compared to prior years. I believe there was a change in the last year or two in how those numbers are calculated which could really throw projections. It is definitely too close to call for us.</p>
<p>harvester,</p>
<p>Thanks for commenting. I agree that our speculation is just that – speculation. It’s something to while the time away until August. :)</p>
<p>Regarding the number of graduates, we can speculate a little based on the number of Juniors taking the PSAT, which for Illinois is possibly more accurate because I believe all HS Juniors in Illinois take the PSAT for the majority of schools. </p>
<p>Here are the numbers for the last several years:</p>
<p>Class of 2014 (# of NMSF in IL: TBD)
Jrs. Nationwide: 1,495,306
Jrs. Illinois: 37,913</p>
<p>Class of 2013 (# of NMSF in IL: 716)
Jrs. Nationwide: 1,480,770
Jrs. Illinois: 38,764</p>
<p>Class of 2012 (# of NMSF in IL: 715)
Jrs. Nationwide: 1,516,494
Jrs. Illinois: 41,798</p>
<p>Class of 2011 (# of NMSF in IL: 688)
Jrs. Nationwide: 1,488,062
Jrs. Illinois: 44,815 </p>
<p>Class of 2010 (# of NMSF in IL: ???)
Jrs. Nationwide: 1,532,433
Jrs. Illinois: 47,451</p>
<p>It seems as if the number of Juniors is trending downward for Illinois at least. As you point out, it’s impossible to guess at the number of graduating seniors (especially if the rules for calculating this number have changed). My guess is that there will be fewer graduating students in 2013 than in 2012, but the number of National Merit Semi Finalists in Illinois has gone up each of the past three years, so all of this is suspect. Still, keeps me busy while waiting…</p>
<p>Actually I think many illinois high schools are now recommending that only high potential students take the psat and the rest take the practice act. That may account for the declining numbers. </p>
<p>Definitely something to think about between now and Aug/Sept!</p>
<p>REPOST:</p>
<p>Is there any chance at all the cutoff will be 213? I really need this.
2012 Stats
Math 75-80: 199 70-74: 366 65-69: 1090
Writing 75-80: 260 70-74: 511 65-69: 888
Reading 75-80: 197 70-74: 628 65-69: 746
2011 Stats (210 cutoff)
Math 75-80: 161 70-74: 499 65-69: 1155
Writing 75-80: 227 70-74: 270 65-69: 748
Reading 75-80: 127 70-74: 422 65-69: 876
2010 Stats (214 cutoff)
Math 75-80: 257 70-74: 389 65-69: 1131
Writing 75-80: 301 70-74:299 65-69: 780
Reading 75-80: 192 70-74: 398 65-69: 827
2008 Stats (213 cutoff)
Math 75-80: 155 70-74: 358 65-69: 1130
Writing 75-80: 201 70-74:438 65-69: 704
Reading 75-80: 191 70-74: 423 65-69: 823
2007 Stats (213 cutoff)
Math 75-80: 223 70-74: 388 65-69: 1082
Writing 75-80: 287 70-74:328 65-69: 800
Reading 75-80: 175 70-74: 467 65-69: 882</p>
<p>There’s always a chance. Just wait! I understand the anticipation…220 in California</p>
<p>Can anyone predict what Arizona’s cutoff will be like? I’ve done a lot of calculations the past hour and I’ve come to these conclusions:
-For this year, the percentages of the top categories (75-80 and 70-74) is higher overall than previous years, even from Class of 2012. However…
-For the top category percentages, this is the only year when Arizona did worse than the nation overall. The nation’s performance declined from 2010 to 2011 and then went up from 2011 to 2012, even exceeding 2012. Again, this is not overall average, I’m averaging the percentages from the top two categories for each section.
What I don’t get is if the average percentages for the top categories in the nation rose from last year to this year, then how are the scores that correspond to percentiles the same? For the past three years, the minimum score for 99+ percentile was 222 and the min score for 99 percentile was 211. If the nation’s percentage went up, then shouldn’t the percentile requirements go up as well? But then again, the difference in average percentile is just around .2%. Okay and for my expectations for Arizona’s cutoff, should I expect an increase or decrease if it did better than the nation’s average percents for the top categories last year but it did worse this year? And for some aid, I got a 212 and the paper said that that was in the 99th percentile but it’s for the nation. So if Arizona did worse for the top categories compared to the nation, then should I expect that the minimum score to get in the 99th percentile should be lower than that of the nation?</p>
<p>Got a 222 in the state of New Jersey, is it likely that I made it seeing the data this year? Also, whenever the Collegeboard shows the PSAT somposite score percentiles, the lower end of the 99+ percentile always seems to be the maximum NMF cutoff for any state, like in 2010 the lower end was a 224, a year when MA & NJ had cutoffs of 223 and in 2011 when the lower end was a 222 and MA & NJ had cutoffs of 221. The lower end of 99+ percentile is a 222 this year, would this mean the highest cutoff is probably a 221 or 222 for any state this year?</p>
<p>Have not seen anyone on this thread from Arkansas. Anyone in the CC universe got a score for the Natural State? I’m praying my 209 will be good enough!</p>
<p>arkie…I believe last year’s cutoff for Arkansas was a 202, and although cutoff scores may vary by a few points from year to year I don’t think any state has ever jumped 7 points in a year. You won’t know for sure that you’ve been named a NMSF until September, but I think you can expect it to happen barring any unforseseen issues.</p>
<p>Thanks Wolverine86! I’m fairly confident too; I just won’t be completely confident until my guidance counselor officially tells me in September. Also, does the NMSC have a specific date they notify high-scorers in April?</p>