<p>I used the % initially. Math up 0.5- balanced out exactly by CR and Math. In terms of real test takers I think it went up 52 ( but I don’t have it in front of me at the moment). </p>
<p>Several questions:
- What is the likely cut-off range for Texas’s semi-finalist?
- How do they choose the finalists out of the finalists? My PSAT is 218 but my SAT score is 2290. Do they choose scholars/finalist from the PSAT score or overall?
Thanks! </p>
<p>Yeah, I have 50 on my sheet…the totals are very close. I hope it drops for your sake, but am starting to lean slightly toward staying the same. Check out the 2009 data. It is similar in many ways, and had a 216 cut.</p>
<p>In Washington DC there were 280 more testtakers this year, but if you add up the 3 sections for 75-80 last year and this year, the real test taker number total (vs. %) went down by 81. Do you think that we have a chance of going down a point based on that? </p>
<p>I was REALLY hoping that these summaries would have helped to predict the cutoff changes. This one seems too close to call. Anyone else in PA,want to weigh in? I hope you get your 1 point drop!</p>
<p>Fairyfantasy – SAT score is irrelevant for going from semi-finalist to finalist except that you apparently have to have a 1960 (not including essay) as confirmation. The other requirements are decent grades (don’t really know what that means for NMSC but probably no semester D’s of F’s and fewer than a couple semester C’s), a respectable (respectful) essay, and school recommendation. Approximately 15000 of the 16000 or so semi-finalists make finalist.</p>
<p>@ProcrastiDad – we’re in the exact same boat, and I hope your prediction turns into reality. I was hoping the numbers would look like they were going down so that we had a bit of wiggle room. Oh well, I figured all along that this was going to be a long wait.</p>
<p>CC peeps, I’m raising my hand to say I have no idea how you’re analyzing the state summaries! If anyone would be willing to walk me thru your process, I’d greatly appreciate it. We are in KS and hoping for a 3 pt drop…which I’m guessing is probably unrealistic at this point, just given the general tone of recent posts. It will be OK either way. DS did his personal best & I’m very proud of him. But I’m completely clueless about how to analyze the data for KS and would welcome tips on how to do so. </p>
<p>@PAMom21: Yes, I agree 2009 is very similar. However, that year the % of PA test takers was higher than 2013. (5.06% vs 4.77%; 45 more students of the 16K semifinalists). That would suggest they had to fulfill a higher number of students (namely 45) and it would lower the cutoff slightly…another reason to suspect a 217 this year. However, this makes a big assumption that the % of test takers historically translates linearly to the % of graduating students in PA and in the nation. Maybe that’s a bad assumption.</p>
<p>@STEMFamily Does that mean PSAT score only opens the door to NMSF and is not weigh heavily in considerations for NM Finalist/Scholar? </p>
<p>@GoAskDad - I know it’s frustrating but I don’t think there’s enough data available to analyze with reasonable accuracy. I guess you can do trending analysis for fun but I don’t know how useful that is. Once you account for all the uncertainties, assumptions, and rounding errors, I don’t think the results mean much other than guessing “+/- x pt”… And even with that, you still have to wait until September to confirm. So, try not to think about it. It is what it is at this point. Good luck to your S. </p>
<p>You’re looking at numbers I really haven’t even played with 4to, so I value your insight there. So long as no one expects more radical jumps all around, I can bear to wait. I’m really hoping we get the commended cut in April.</p>
<p>Do you have NMSF totals for PA historically? I only have the one number there from last year. I’m not sure I get where your 5.06 and 4.77 are coming from.</p>
<p>Simplistically, I added the 2012 CR, M & W means for KS and they equaled 153. The 2013 means equal 152.8, so that indicates to me there will not be a significant drop, if any. But this is sooooo not my area of expertise. There were 730 more test-takers in 2012 than 2013, so that’s a factor I assume. Overall, I don’t get a good feeling for DS, but it’s not like he/we can be sad because he got the 5th-highest score at his HS, which typically has a very good number of NMS. And he will definitely be Commended, which his HS will recognize - so that’s nice. Can’t complain because he did much better than we thought he would, and also improved his SAT over his PSAT recently. Was holding out hope for free tuition at our state flagship, but maybe it’s for the best - so we don’t feel like DS <em>has</em> to take that option.</p>
<p>@FromMD, thanks & you’re right - and even if we had enough data available to analyze…I would not be capable enough to do it! :(( </p>
<p>
</p>
<p>fairyfantasy…That is correct. Your PSAT score is the lone qualifier for NMSF status. You’ll need to score at or above your state cutoff, and SFs for the class of '15 will be named this September. After that, you’ll need the “confirming” SAT score of 1960 or greater (could possibly be different this year but has been consistently at 1960 for several years) but you’ve already cleared that hurdle.</p>
<p>If you make SF status, your school will receive a packet detailing what must be done and submitted for consideration for advancement to Finalist status. 15K of 16K make Finalist, so it’s usually a paperwork snafu or failure to properly complete the application package that trips up most of those. There is no hard and fast criteria regarding GPA or grades, but D’s or F’s are killers and C’s are red flags. Sometimes one or two C’s will be Ok, but last year’s graduates were scrutinized pretty closely. You can’t do much about any you might already have, but if you think NMSF is a possibility, definitely keep any additional C’s off the transcript.</p>
<p>There is a stickied thread at the top of the NM forums that will answer these and a lot of other questions you may have. If you think you’re in the running, it’s certainly worth the time to read through it. Good Luck!!</p>
<p>@Wolverine86 Thanks for the detailed response! I have straight A’s from all previous and present years, 4.0 GPA. and qualifying SAT scores. I just pray that my PSAT score can get pass the cutoff range. </p>
<p>Here’s some interesting reading for those trying to make predictions. This is last year’s similar discussion. It’s hard to read, because the scores jumped so considerably, and most of these posters were excluded. Also, note there was some initial confusion about the cuts for the 99th percentile. We used to get that info with the score report in December, but they changed the format last year to use old data instead. We could make more educated guesses if we had that info, 
. For PA, distance from the 99th+ cut showed solid consistency, but we won’t have that info now until it’s too late.</p>
<p><a href=“2012 State Summary Reports are up! - National Merit Scholarships - College Confidential Forums”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1457466-2012-state-summary-reports-are-up-p1.html</a></p>
<p>And if you really have time to kill…</p>
<p><a href=“***Class of 2014 NMSF Qualifying scores*** - #166 by nordic10 - National Merit Scholarships - College Confidential Forums”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1427971-class-of-2014-nmsf-qualifying-scores-p12.html</a></p>
<p>I learned from this thread that the “high scorers” (commended and above) are notified via letters to the school in early April. Last year the letters were sent to the school April 10th. At this point, we should know if the commended cut changes from 203, and in what direction, which will help with the speculation. After last year’s 3 point jump, the expectations for state cuts increased accordingly.</p>
<p>Sorry for the posting marathon here, but I think this is all helpful info. This link suggests hope for commended notification as early as March, but given CB’s late “February” state data release, I wouldn’t get too optimistic.</p>
<p><a href=“PSAT/NMSQT Test Dates and Deadlines for Educators”>http://professionals.collegeboard.com/testing/psat/deadlines</a></p>
<p>hey when are the state qualifying scores told?</p>
<p>Semi-finalists names are made public in mid-September. Schools are notified earlier and can tell the student privately but don’t always. The cut-off scores are not actually announced but there is always a thread here on CC that gathers information from students who make or don’t make the cut in order to deduce the state cut-offs.</p>