Some earlier post (and memory from class of 2015) said the results are set so the top 1% in each state make NMF status. That is why there are different cutoff scores for different states. States like Hawaii, Montana, etc. with lower populations will likely have lower cut offs than California, Massachusetts, New York, etc. that have larger student populations.
@divider It has for some schools. My friends in New Hampshire started Monday.
Our school started in the third week of August
Any Michigan open schools out there? Besides the fact the cutoff is less than 213, we are still in the dark here
For those wondering about what grades are considered: In post #1016 above I included a link to a previous post where I explain what grades are used in the application for Finalist status. The GC has to show the grades for the terms that are relevant in your school. If quarter grades are included in your GPA, then they include quarter grades. If only semester grades are included in GPA calculations, that what is shown. I don’t know if any schools only use end of year grades in the GPA because some classes are only 1 semester long, right? Our school uses semester grades for the GPA calculations, so on the application for Finalist, although there is room for 4 grades per course per year, the GC only included semester grades. Hope that helps. If a student has a couple low grades, then you should discuss this with the GC and have the GC explain it on the app, stress class rank or difficulty of the course or whatever may explain the low grades. It benefits the school to have more kids make finalist, so the GC should do whatever it takes.
@VaishS The PSAT documentation itself says “an allocation of Semifinalists is determined for each state, based on the state’s percentage of the national total of high school graduating seniors. For example, the number of Semifinalists in a state that enrolls approximately two percent of the nation’s graduating seniors would be about 320 (2 percent of the 16,000 Semifinalists).” So first they figure out each state’s allotment, then they presumably see what score would achieve that allotment.
@lcgusa – try a search for “transcript” and see if any of those posts answer your question. I can’t find the thread I was reading earlier.
Updating for Iowa, Idaho, Tennessee, Illinois
AL=209 (post #1047, per GC) (post #?, per GC/NMSC/HSL (homeschool letter)/other)
AK=?
AZ=?
AR=?
CA= 222 or 223 (posts #726 letter for 223, #1024 GC > 221)
CO= <= 215 (post #1065, per letter)
CT=?
DE=?
DC=?
FL=214 (post #851)
GA=?
HI=?
ID=208 (post #1091, per GC)
IL= <= 221 (post 1097)
IN= <=215 (post #1013 per principal/GC)
IA= <=208 (post #1067, per GC)
KS=?
KY= <=213 (post #822)
LA=211 (post #887 cutoff informed by GC)
ME=?
MD=?
MA=?
MI= <= 213 (post #648 HSL)
MN= <=215 (post #900: 216 from GC; 215 from friend of student)
MS= <=209 (post #843)
MO=?
MT=?
NE=?
NV=?
NH=?
NJ=?
NM=?
NY=219 (post #856)
NC=?
ND=?
OH=215 (post #1037)
OK=208 (post #750, cutoff informed by principal)
OR=?
PA =?
RI= <=214 (post #999)
SC=?
SD=?
TN= <=213 (post #1095, friend of a CC poster)
TX=220 (post #996, cutoff confirmed by GC)
UT= <=209 (post #975)
VT=?
VA=?
WA=?
WV=?
WI=?
WY=?
Commended (national cutoff) = 202
@VaishS, they do not just take a percent of scores. It’s based on the number of graduating seniors in the state (see post #1070 above). Some states have a small percentage of test takers, so a large percentage of test takers make NMSF. Other states, like Texas, have a large percentage of test takers, so less than 0.5% make NMSF. If your state gets 100 NMSFs, and only 100 kids were to take the PSAT, they would all make NMSF. So they determine the state cutoffs by seeing what cutoff will yield the number of NMSFs they need in that state. Each state gets a prorata share of NMSFs based on the number of graduating seniors in the state (more detail in post #1070).
Thanks @Barfly – post #1016 was the one I read earlier!
Y’all are very helpful.
Yes! I know this doesn’t affect the chart but I made it in Idaho with a 211! 208 cutoff is a big drop from last year but thanks @WRUAustin for the prediction of 208.25, right on! Thanks everyone for helping me through this! 
My friend told me that his friend in TN made a 212 and got told by his school that he is a national merit semifinalist
For anyone wondering about Semester Cs, go back to the threads from last year & prior years to see the saga unfold.
@Barfly, help me out here - because I’ve tried to block those days from memory! - but didn’t we see somewhat of a pattern last year where a C or 2 Cs in very difficult classes (AP or Honors) could still make the cut, whereas a C in gym or health would not?
I think we also determined that those Cs helped whittle-down the list in states where there NMSC needed to cull numbers.
Also - and I speak from personal, painful experience - if you are a NMSF w/a C or 2 on your transcript, you are going to need the help of your GC to explain your special circumstances on the GC portion of the paperwork for NMF. Please consider moving on this as soon as you get NMSF confirmation! I give full credit to DS’s GC for being a Miracle-Worker, because DS’s Soph year grades were not what they should have been. There were reasons for this, and she did her job of explaining the circumstances very well, apparently. But it was the longest 6 months of my life!
It also probably helped that my DS had some special awards for music & he was a high school athlete & other things, so his app showed that he did a lot besides schoolwork/studying. The app is very important and should not be taken lightly. But he had a semester C at the end of the year, in a non-Honors class (that was very hard, nonetheless) and he still made it through. My then-87-year-old mom also prayed the Rosary every day for 6 months and I think she said some Novenas & fasted, so there’s that.
Thanks everyone, you all are very helpful!
@GoAskDad, I don’t recall the details. But Novenas can’t hurt!
@goaskdad I’m going to get abuela on the admissions prayer plan. It can’t hurt and then maybe she will stop asking well-meaning but stressful (to the kid) questions because she has a task. She thinks he’s the best, can’t understand why any college might pass.
Found out a friend qualified today with a 213 in Kansas.
@GoAskDad Thank you for your advice. I’m in FL, a state with a high number of NMSFs, so I’m afraid those 2 semester Cs will put me on the chopping block. I will contact my GC, as I was going through some medical issues when I got these low grades.
@GoAskDad Praying the rosary every day, novenas AND fasting?! I literally laughed so hard at this. Sounds like what my mom would have done if she didn’t have much bigger things to pray for unfortunately. Thanks! This literally made my day.
@Mom22finalists Is your Kansas friend homeschooled? If not, how did your friend find out? Did his/her GC or Principal share the good news? My S16 (who had a 215) isn’t home from his after-school activity yet, but as far as I know he hasn’t been told.