I’m guessing it will be 218 with a slight chance it could go up, slightly more chance it will go down. I don’t think 220 will happen in TX.
@3scoutsmom
Your guess is very consistent with my correlation analysis. Hope we’re right. My daughter was nice enough to score high enough that I wasn’t concerned. My son wasn’t as kind to us. 
I don’t have to worry about my D either but it’s still fun to speculate, more fun because she’s not on the bubble. I feel for parents of the class of 2017 at least I’ll have their data before S18 makes me play this game again!
No, @WRUAustin, but I can’t wait to find out!
So nice when your kids are considerate enough to score significantly above the historically highest cutoff. One of mine made it easy on us. The others decided to put us through the ringer!
I’m hoping 224 is good enough for MD. Since it’s never gone higher than 223, we’re hopeful. This could save us tons of money, since our son’s GPA isn’t that high. Not bad overall by any means, but a couple of low grades have pulled it down. Lucky for him nobody in our household cares about him attending a top tier college.
I went ahead and calculated the FL number. It took me only a couple of minutes. I have the 2014 test (Class of 2016) cutoff at 212.3. That’s one higher than last year, but likely 2 lower than the recent high of 214. Good luck.
Thanks! Much appreciated
@mstomper (Class of 2015 NMF here) Your son should be good, congrats on the great score. On the low grades though, does he have any Cs?
@WRUAustin, any idea of the cut-off for New Jersey?
Did the calculation for Florida. 212.2 was the estimate.
Edit: Didn’t see Austin’s post about the Florida cutoff. Hoping for a 212 cutoff and not a 214 cutoff!
A couple of D’s, actually. All A’s and B’s in magnet classes, though. I think he may be one of the few who do not advance to finalist, unfortunately.
Sorry, I haven’t done New Jersey. I have provided a spreadsheet in a previous post and the instructions on how to do the calculation. You only need minor Excel skills and a little effort. Good luck.
@WRUAustin I hope your FL prediciton is correct! DS scored a 212. After seeing the huge bump in the CR 70-74, I believe the cutoff will be closer to 214. I hope I am wrong! 
I’ve calculated for 5 states: TX, CA, NY, DE, and FL. I have 2 states (TX and CA) staying the same as last year and the other 3 states moving up 1 point from last year. (My calculation for DE is 216.0 since I have not posted that previously).
I don’t see a jump to 214 in FL. It is hard to pin down an estimate to just a single number, but I certainly hope for your family’s sake that it is 212. Good luck.
Same here. I always thought kids should always be improving and wondered how someone could go down from 10th to 11th but it does seem to make a difference which side of the bed you get down from on test day. D went down from any state would qualify score in one year to let me see if I can squeak in score when it mattered. Older kid had almost a perfect score leaving no doubts.
We know many kids who scored lower as juniors than they did as sophomores. I know what you mean @texaspg. A bad day can make all the difference. One particular incorrect answer, depending upon what it is in and how many other questions were missed, might make no difference in the student’s score or might make a 4 point or more difference in the score. One question!
@Barfly DS made the same mistakes (10) as last year and scored 5 points less on Junior PSAT. He was really bumped out.
And, @nycuws, if you look at the scoring chart (whenever it’s available), you would probably be able to find many paths to both higher and lower scores, same year same test, with 10 incorrect answers. Frustrating.
@WRUAustin Just comparing trends from the past, like I said I’m not really a numbers person. But it’s interesting that my very unscientific method and yours agree:-)