Regarding odds of admission on an overall basis, here is some simple math:
Take the 57 or so programs posted at the top of this forum plus another 3 to make an even 60 (Alabama, Belmont, Utah, for example) and assume each program receives 500 applications for MT auditions per year (some more, some less). That results in a total of 30,000 applications submitted.
If each applicant submits an average of 10 audition requests (some more, some less), then 30,000 divided by 10 results in a **Total Applicant Pool size of 3,000 students**. This correlates favorably with a more detailed estimate that I did a while back using a different basis: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17289152#Comment_17289152
Using data from various posts, the average number of students admitted to each program is around 14. Multiply 14 students per program times 60 programs and you get 840 slots.
Divide 840 slots by 3,000 students and you get **overall odds of around 28 percent**.
This is just a very basic estimate. Some caveats immediately come to mind:
a. There are definitely more women auditioning than men and there are probably more slots available overall for guys (many programs admit more guys than dolls). The odds for girls have to be worse than guys. If the ratios are 60-40 girls/guys for applications and 55-45 for slots in favor of guys, then the odds for girls drop to 21 percent and rise to 38 percent for guys. This just a speculative example.
b. If the average number of applications is less than 10, than the audition pool size would be larger. If the average number of auditions is 8 per student, then the pool size rises to close to 4,000 and the odds fall off to around 20 percent.
c. As mentioned in previous posts in this thread, since yields are usually less than 100 percent, there are generally more offers of acceptance than actual admissions. This would potentially seem to raise the odds, however, since talented students usually receive more than one offer, the odds may not be appreciably affected by the fact that there are more acceptances than slots.
@EmsDad, you’re way better at math than I am, but I prefer my down & dirty stats! In the craziness of auditioning where, let’s face it, the math means nothing, I like the equation where there is a spot for everyone!
I do think there is a program for anyone who wants to major in theater/MT - it just may not be on the big list at the top of the page… It’ the kids who ONLY audition for the most competitive programs that are taking the biggest risk for disappointment. It gets said all the time- but a balanced list is the key to a happy college application experience
@Dankadon Yeah I was at that Pace audition and I still winced when that was said. And that’s with me already knowing what the odds are. One thing I tried not to do was ask “How did it Go?” I just felt like for the most part everyone felt it went well right? And I had no doubt that there were a lot of incredibly talented kids there just like my daughter. Pace is one of her top schools and if she gets in great! If not we will just move on. Got a Carnegie audition this Saturday so our family will be taking a road trip. I told her look don’t stress. What is meant for you is meant and you will be happy wherever you wind up going. We’re trying to just enjoy this time as much as possible. All I ask from her is that she enjoys herself along with putting her best foot forward. Outside of the stress of “Will I get in?” I love this time I get to spend with her. Traveling, laughing, talking and just enjoying these quality times. It saddens me a little to think that when this process is over, things are going to change a lot. She will have to do a lot more on her own and the dynamics of my involvement will change.
The dynamics of involvement may change but you might still be involved. The D has been sending me her summer stock videos and cover letters to review before she sends them off. Oh, and that’s a reminder that the prescreen process is a great learning tool for the world of video submissions.
@mtjones1 - yes, I always want to say “How did it go?” But usually he says, "wow that felt great,
or “that was my best one today,” or “whoa, that was tough!” HAHA! Yes, Pace is a favorites of his, too. I’m enjoying the process. He’s ready, he’s confident and hopefully some schools feel that way, too!
This was a little weird. D got a rejection email today entitled “Letter of Thanks” ( a good clue as to content!) but it was addressed by individual email to 36 students including D who all auditioned at the same dates asking them to open the attachment when convenient. First rejection email we’ve seen. Do they normally reveal who else received the same form letter that was attached? Uncomfortable…we recognized a couple names of people D met at the auditions.
Great post @mtjones1, about making some memories along the way! It will be over all too soon and she’ll be tucked away where she was meant to be and happy and we’ll remember “the such and such place we ate at when . . . " D and I are still so nostalgic about those times on the road during audition season. Like the time I missed the toll booth going into Wisconsin because we were jamming out to her tunes via aux cord on the car radio. :-” Fingers crossed for y’all this weekend.
Tried to go back and edit that post for a typo, but it was giving me a weird Qbert message. If anyone still remembers Qbert. I am sure I just dated myself. Haha.
I just had that same problem too and have never had that happen before. I was going to say that I cross posted with @alwaysamom saying the same thing basically about the school that sent out a group email basically to all who got the “no thanks.”
@WaveGee It’s not in the same league, but one of the schools my daughter has applied to has been sending out audition confirmation material emails and the like to all the applicants auditioning on the same day. No BCC anonymity - you can see all the emails, many of which are the kids’ names. The first time I thought it was a simple mistake, but it has continued, and I can’t understand the lack of privacy. I sure hope what you received was somebody’s error.
Agree that your ^^ letters weren’t as bad as the decision letters copied to other students, but it is still bad and should not be done. It should all be confidential.
@WaveGee - D got the same email. It was weird b/c she had actually emailed them yesterday morning to follow up and ask if they needed anything else from her since she had auditioned a couple of months ago & she was trying to decide if she should go ahead and apply academically or not. In response, she got an email from the Coordinator of the department w/the “letter of thanks” attached, & thought “well, that stinks, they couldn’t even address it to me” - it was addressed “Dear Musical Theatre Applicant.” Then a short time later, got it again, but the recipients were not hidden. Of the 30 or so kids on the list, D is familiar with about 9 of them (3 of whom look very much like her & have similar singing styles), all very talented kids. Her response was “well, at least I’m not alone!” and she moved on. Pretty crazy mistake on their part.
(*side note - I agree w/not outing the program b/c surely it was someone in the office’s very regrettable mistake, but want to say if anyone is reading the individual school forums that it was NOT Wright State…I only say that b/c I recently asked a question on that board that might lead a reader to conclude it must be them…it was not…she hasn’t heard back from them yet & hopes to still be in the hunt there!).
Oh, and that’s a reminder that the prescreen process is a great learning tool for the world of video submissions.