Thanks @homerdog and @UpNorth2019 I just went over to Art’s blog and read through his analysis. The one aspect that sticks out as a red flag to me are his incorrect statements throughout the article regarding October 2019 test dates. In fact his entire analysis is performed as though the Saturday, Oct. 19th test did not even take place. This honestly has me more than a little concerned. Will my son’s NMF candidacy be jeopardized by the fact that only the Saturday test date was offered by his school district? We are in a large Southern California district so it’s not like we are anything out of the norm or unusual…
^The Saturday scoring scale is not released in College Board’s 2019 PSAT/NMSQT Understanding Scores document, so he does not have that data to work with. Is there something else incorrect about the dates he discusses?
Your concerns are unfounded. Art’s analysis is premised on the statistics released by the CB and he does not make incorrect statements throughout his article. For some reason, every year, CB does not release the curve for the Saturday test date. Head to reddit to see if you can find information they compile over there for the curve if you are interested. Regardless, your son’s score was a 226. He will qualify for NMSF in CA. You can relax.
eta: I mean, as long as your son is in good standing at his school, and his school officials confirm that to NM Corp when they make an inquiry later this year, he will qualify for NMSF.
My daughter’s scores came in this morning. 750 reading/writing (38/38 reading 37/38 writing) and 740 Math (37/38). Only missing two questions and she got a 1450? The curve must be rough! She missed only two questions on the actual SAT a week and a half later and scored a 1580?!
With a PSAT index of 224, she should be safe for NMSF in Ohio. I am so happy for her because she studied several times a week since June and probably took 15 practice tests. It is good to see that kind of hard work pay off!
It looks like she got a 1490, not a 1450?
And she must have scored higher than a 1490, because that is equating to 222 on this test.
And she must have scored higher than a 1490, because that is equating to 222 on this test.
No, it’s a 224 (38 + 37 + 37 = 112) X 2 = 224.
Yes that was a typo! 1490, missed two questions. Her score index is a 224. I just double checked to be sure and it says 224. 2(38+37+37) = 224
Aw - makes sense! Sorry i missed that. Great score either way and congrats to her!
@evergreen5 and @amsunshine thank you for the reassurance and not trying to be difficult, but I do stand behind my assertion that Art’s blog article is incorrect, although I agree that Art himself is not the source of the incorrect information. Nor do I intend any disrespect or lack of appreciation for his work. Instead, the CB is, as it is the source of his analysis and missing the data for the Saturday cohort. I believe Art’s analysis would have been strengthened if he had at least acknowledged that the data set was only 2/3rds complete.
She must have been at the high end of 1490 - my son had 36+37+38 (222) and a 1490 as well.
@sherimba03 It would not be accurate to say the data set is only 2/3 complete. I don’t have time to search for the numbers right now, but I believe the vast majority of students take the PSAT on the main test date – somewhere above 80%, I’m remembering? Only about 10% of students take the test on the alternate test date, and then that would leave a small percentage who took the test on the Saturday date. So, yes, the data set is not entirely complete, and it’s frustrating the CB doesn’t release the Saturday test info, but the data is much more than 2/3 complete.
Both are 1490. There is no high or low end. The difference is that, for the SI, the College Board (or maybe the NM Corp?) weights the EBRW sections more heavily than the math section by adding the three sections together and then doubling the score. (R + W + M) X 2. So, you cannot tell exactly what one’s selection index will be just by looking at the total score. You need to know the individual section scores to calculate it out.
@amsunshine from the perspective of total test-taking student population you are entirely correct that the data set is much more than 2/3 complete. From the perspective of the total population of test administration dates, since the test was administered on three separate dates, and data from only two dates is presented, it is an entirely accurate statement that the data set represents 2/3 of the total population of tests administered.
I regret if it appears that I am splitting hairs but it has been (mildly) frustrating for me and S21 to not see his test date acknowledged in all of these discussions and analyses. It is presented as an alternate test date as though the students had an option regarding the date they took the test. Again, I just want to be clear that in S21’s school district the students did not have any choice regarding test dates. Saturday Oct. 19th was the only option and thus from our perspective it was the primary date.
All this being said, I know that my frustration is petty and I do not mean to detract in any way from my appreciation for the information provided in this forum and from the amazing accomplishments of all our students, irrespective of their scores on the PSAT.
Sure, but the data from the Saturday test is not likely to have much statistical significance.
eta: You must have edited while I was replying earlier. I just wanted to say – your son’s accomplishment is phenomenal! No one denies that – and I understand your frustration about the CB not releasing the statistics. There is less discussion about the Saturday test because not many students take that test, but it is not because those students are irrelevant. Congratulations on your son’s achievement and we are all in this together for the year ahead – I look forward to chatting more with you over the course of this journey! 
My DS’s percentile doesn’t seem to match his scores and I’m wondering if anyone else is having the same experience. His SI is 212, which was the low end of Commended last year, but all three section scores say that he is in the 99th percentile. Does that seem right?
honestly, I’m not sure why anyone would really care about the commended cut off. Am I missing something? I don’t think there are scholarships for commended and colleges honestly do NOT look at PSAT scores. They are not part of the applications.
Wouldn’t National Merit Commended be an academic honor to be noted on college applications? I kind of think so, but maybe others have more insight than I do?
Of course being a commended scholar is an honor. Our school puts both groups on their social media sites and both are listed in our neighborhood paper ( although only the semi finalists) are listed in the main state-wide paper. SMH