You really need to read Art’s blog about how NMSF is determined.
Basically, the National Merit Foundation limits the total of NMSF to around 16,000 each year. From that number, they prorate how many students from each state will be chosen based on the number of high school seniors each state has. Obviously, the more populous, the more students who will be chosen. Wyoming has a fairly low population so only around 25 will be chosen every year.
When there are more students, you will have more higher scoring students which pushes up the cutoffs. That does not necessarily mean overall the State has a better education system, just that there are more possible higher scoring students.
I understand how it’s determined - that is why you have 2000 kids in California and 25 in Wyoming. The numbers roughly represent .5-1% of the student population. That doesn’t change the fact that every state should have 1% of students that can manage a high score - even if 1% is only a handful of kids.
ok; i get that.
I will say WY is just a different beast than NJ. The state has . . . get this . . . one 4-year college! it’s incredibly rural, vast, and has the lowest population density in the US, but the state doesnt have impoverished urban areas that bring down percentages of standardized tests.
So now I’m curious on this all. The state’s per capita income isn’t the lowest, yet psat scores are similar to the lowest per capita income states. I wonder what gives? (I dont live in WY, but it’s one of my favorite places in the world!!)
I think that, in part, it’s a mindset that’s more common in the northeast and parts of the west (like Seattle, San Francisco, etc) or major metros (like Chicago). There are a number of ambitious parents who want their kids to be successful, and for them, that could be IB/top law/top CS (or just high income), and top X universities, and then they figure out how to get there. And people who might not have been that way originally, but then start seeing neighbors, or their kids’ classmates going in these directions, feel the need to do the same. Because there is such a dense concentration of these folks, they have to continue to prepare for the next stage earlier and earlier. So instead of choosing the right high school, it’s choosing the right elementary school, then the the right preschool, etc. If they want their kids to be top at their levels in their various activities, then they are starting their kids earlier and earlier in the activities. So, for students who are in these environments, they end up getting on the math +2 or +3 (or more) tracks when in many other parts of the country, it’s extremely rare for folks to be doing more than the +1 track. Ditto for everything else.
In contrast, in Wyoming (and probably in many other parts of the U.S.), my guess is that people are much more laidback about how their kids’ lives are going to turn out. They kind of figure, so long as their kid(s) are doing well that there’s no need to keep encouraging them to do more. Maybe it’s due to fewer activities/extracurriculars available. Maybe it’s due insufficient demand in the schools to offer the +2, +3 tracks. Maybe it’s the idea that kids are going to have to grow up anyway, so let them enjoy their childhood as much as they can. Maybe they think that everything will all even out anyway in the long run, even if a student from a more competitive area might get there first. Or maybe they think it’s pointless because the “system” is rigged against them anyway or that the “top x” schools are hoity-toity places that they’d do anything to avoid associating with. All of which could mean that the state ends up with lower NM qualifying scores.
I would say that many or most people do better when there are others pushing them, but not all. Additionally, I think it depends on how much pushing is involved. A certain degree of pushing is good, but too much pushing can cause a lot of problems related to health and self-worth.
OK. this makes sense, looking back to my sister. . . . she attended a small rural midwest school k-9 grades; 12 in her class. In her 10th grade year our family moved to a west coast state, she attended a large city school, took honors track classes; in 11th took the PSAT and was national merit. Would she have had that if she had stayed at the rural school? Not sure; her intelligence was the same, but it certainly wasn’t nurtured in the small school.
I’m still in the midwest (sister is now killing it in the Bay Area!) and also I agree with your premise about parents here having a laidback approach. But it’s not that they don’t care, it’s more that they don’t know, nor feel any pressure about their kids and academics like those in more urban coastal areas. The only reason I really care (and my friends think I’m so extra) is that I found college confidential in 2014 after googling about my son’s PSAT scores. I’ve been going down a rabbit hole ever since!!
In the comments Art put MD at 221 - he has not updated the post though. Is there any chance of MA throwing a curveball? They are a high scoring state as well.
I think it is definitely possible. It was 220 last year, but he predicted 221 for this year. I think it could certainly be 222, although I think that is a small chance. It has been that high in the past, but not on a “low cut off“ year.
I did see the 221 for MD in the comment section and when cross checked it with his list did not see it. Hope the number stands. We are truly hoping that MD and MA will not be higher than 223.
Excellent points and analysis. I know this is a National Merit forum and don’t want to digress (too much !) but it is a shame that in these same larger urban areas we find that there is a much higher number of kids attending private / independent schools when our public schools should be at such a high standard that most people consider public schools a no-brainer. In the SF Bay Area I have heard people mention that more than 30% of the kids are in independent schools, such a shame and only increases the divide further.
Art lists MA as 222 in the list, even though he doesn’t mention it in his write up. That is super disappointing for my 221 son. We knew it was a possibility, but it is still upsetting. For our financial circumstances (high-ish income but high COL state and high expenses for 2 disabled kids that we learned with S23 colleges won’t take into account in FA calculations) & my son being undecided on major, the NM packages were a very attractive fit. Honestly not sure what direction he is going to go in now.
I’m really sorry. It’s extra disappointing knowing you would have made it pretty much everywhere else.
Have you ever read the thread about the CA dad who had a smart hockey-playing hispanic daughter but couldn’t quite pay the costs at high end schools because of circumstances?
She applied very broadly and ended up with some very attractive financial packages.
No, I haven’t read that thread. Applying broadly is a reasonable strategy, but not a great fit for my son. He’s smart and a hard worker, but not very driven at this point since he just doesn’t know what he wants to study or do in life. Honestly, a gap year (or 2 or 3) to figure out what he wants would probably be best emotionally & financially, but the US education system isn’t set up to make that work well.
Anyway, I’ll get my frustration & disappointment out here, then try to regroup to support him with a positive attitude & some good ideas of how to move forward.
Maybe it’s a blessing in disguise - if he needs a gap year or two.
My nephew had 3 gap years and then went back and got a degree at his local school (UNLV) in accounting and is gainfully employed.
If your son decides to work for a few years or permanently, the system is indeed set up for him. He can even take an online class each semester if he wants to stay school connected.
@tsbna44 is not wrong but you might learn something from their journey. If I remember correctly they also had a special needs child and how colleges factored that in varied wildly.
If your S doesn’t know what he wants to do and a LAC is appealing maybe take a look at some of the Midwest schools. We found that several of them offered significant merit.
Also, is it fair to assume he has a strong SAT score? I think there are several schools that offer guaranteed merit based on those.
Does anyone know of colleges that offer an application fee waiver once they find out the student is a NMSF? We got some offers in via email for being NHRP: UMD, Fordham, RPI.
Agree that Midwest schools offer significant merit, including full rides. Also space/housing pressures tend not to be intense, so getting a single and/or a private bathroom is very possible. I know the Midwest is outside of the preferred area, but some cities (such as Mpls-St. Paul) offer frequent inexpensive flights. I know a student who was National Merit Commended who got a full ride to Ripon (which recently started an engineering program.) Another who turned down Notre Dame for a full ride at U St. Thomas (excellent regional university with engineering, looking to expand its national draw.) I’m sure there must be others. Painful to miss the NMSF cutoff by just 1 point (the system is not fair!) but there are MANY schools that will value a student as strong as this one.
We knew it was a possibility, but it is still upsetting. For our financial circumstances (high-ish income but high COL state and high expenses for 2 disabled kids that we learned with S23 colleges won’t take into account in FA calculations) & my son being undecided on major, the NM packages were a very attractive fit. Honestly not sure what direction he is going to go in now.