4 years in advance? Don’t we discourage 8th graders from getting too worried? A visit to several sorts, is one thing, most don’t even take std tests until junior year. And we aren’t talking abut memorizing the course handbook. Or maybe you meant, the wrong kind of crapshoot, the one where kids apply blind and ask CC Why this college or that, at nearly the last minute.
I think adcoms at the most selective schools will tell you that for every kid who’s accepted, there are at least [2 or more?] who are equally strong candidates who were not. In that sense, yes, it is a bit of a crapshoot. And if you know anyone who works in admissions, they’ll tell you that committee work involves a certain amount of compromise and trading and occasionally dysfunction, so maybe you were just reviewed on the wrong day. Or you may have been one of 12 kids that year who was first chair in his/her state orchestra. Most schools (and directors of admissions) do their best on this front, but they are human, and at a highly selective school, they are unlikely to be criticized for the class they create because it’ll still be awesome even without a few of people who ended up in the WL or reject pile.
I think, though, that very strong candidates are likely to be admitted to at least one very good school, even if it’s not their dream school, and they will probably be very successful there.
Another factor leading to some of the anecdotes about amazing applicants getting rejected is that a lot if top applicants apply with stated intentions of majoring in the same small array of majors. Almost all of the 36 ACT, 4.0, and/or valedictorian applicants you read about on CC say they are going into business, engineering, econ, or biology (pre-med). Even if colleges say they don’t take proposed majors into account, common sense is that they must, at least a little. Seems pretty rare that u hear of a top-quality applicant intending to study languages, philosophy, theology, sociology, nursing, education, etc., and it’s even more rare to hear they got rejected.
^My guess is the applications of those not desiring the popular, conventional majors read a little more interesting and refreshing as well. Looking at high stat students with similar backgrounds all day every day, I’m sure they blend together a little and those that are different stand out.
I would also imagine some essays aren’t as great as applicants think they are. Everyone on CC seems to think their essays are great.
Re #42
Actually, nursing is a major that tends to be highly competitive at most schools.
Any kid can submit a disappointing app, no matter the stats. One of the very few things you can control for is the quality of your hs record, your other choices (activities,) and then your app/supps. (And any interview.)
If someone really only knows HYPMSabc are top schools (and thinks they guarantee some hot future,) how do they form the right presentation? They’re going to see results as random, when they may have missed the chance to present themselves more effectively.
The main reason admission to super-selective schools looks like a crapshoot from the outside is that students (and parents, teachers, and counselors) tend not to know the competitiveness of the entire applicant pools of such schools, particularly in the subjectively graded criteria like essays, extracurriculars, recommendations (which also introduce the recommenders’ recommendation writing qualities into the application), etc… So the top student in his/her high school may know that his/her 4.0 and top-end test scores are in the general pool, but has little knowledge of how his/her other application characteristics compare to all of the other applicants with 4.0 and top-end test scores.
College admissions are completely (okay…MOSTLY) a crapshoot. I got accepted early write into Amherst, but got waitlisted at Carleton. I got rejected from Dartmouth, and waitlisted at Harvard. Seems random to me; each college is very idiosyncratic. (I didn’t have legacy or was a recruit for either, and I’d judge all my essays to be very similar in terms of effectiveness.)
“Crapshoot” implies a lottery like level of randomness. Or, you know, like throwing craps. That you can’t discern the reasons for your various results doesn’t mean that there weren’t reasons.
When I was applying to college, many years ago, the joke about admissions at the most competitive schools was that the dean of admissions stood at the top of a staircase and tossed all the applications down the stairs. The ones that landed face up? Rejected. The ones that landed face down? Rejected. The ones that landed balanced on their edges were the ones that got accepted.
It feels that way very often from the applicants’ point of view, but it’s just not that random.