My post mentioned that the scores were correlated with grades, rather than were not correlated. I meant that the grades were correlated with scores for the minority of students who scored >1 on the AP exam.
The low physics 1 scores is a complex and multifaceted issue… more than just the effect grade inflation. For example, Bellaire appears the be the only non-selective HS in the report that had more than 7 students score 3+ (Debakey and Carnegie are selective). Grades are correlated with scores at Bellaire and the selective HSs. However, the other 24 HSs didn’t fair as well. Hardly anyone “passed” with a 3+ score, and the overwhelming majority scored a 1. At many high schools, nobody in the entire school scored 3+. Some examples of lower scoring schools are below.
Received 3+ on Physics 1
E-STEM Central – 0 out of 110 passed
Westbury – 1 out of 99 passed
Milby – 0 out of 65 passed
Austin – 0 out of 58 passed
Leland – 0 out of 46 passed
One of the reasons why Physics 1 has an especially low average is because a significant portion of the good scoring HSs do not offer the class. Perhaps they were not a fan of replacing Physics B with Physics 1/2 and chose to offer their own physics course instead. Physics 1 seems to have a higher concentration of kids from these lower scoring high schools than other APs.
Kids from the lower scoring schools also generally didn’t do well in other STEM subjects besides physics. For example, E-STEM Central High had 527 AP exams during 2019. Nobody at E-STEM Central scored 3+ in any AP subjects, not just Physics. However, E-STEM Central pulls down the overall district average more in Physics 1 than any other subject because they had more test takers in Physics 1 more than any other subject.
I don’t know enough about the specific HSs to know why most high schools had such high failure rates. In some cases, it can involve how the class is taught. Perhaps if a large portion of the class is not well prepared for the standard AP content, then the class may emphasize different material, resulting on no one being taught the full AP content and no one being well prepared for the exam. For example, the HS I attended used to have a ridiculously high failure rate in one of the regents math subjects. As I recall, it was >80% failed. There were some news stories, people complained, then the curriculum was modified to better prep for the regents test and avoid deviating from regents material. Suddenly the pass rate dramatically increased.
This touches on another limitation for using AP exams in college admissions. AP courses are often on a near college level, and most HS students are not prepared for taking that level of courses, particularly when taken before senior year or without a HS prerequisite (not taking HS physics before AP physics). It would probably be more appropriate for the majority of kids to stick to standard HS level courses and take no/few AP classes. Encouraging unprepared students to take the class can lead to a variety of negative consequences.