I hear this view a lot and it does sound reasonable if one hasn’t been exposed to what life as a recruitable HS athlete is like.
My sport is track not swimming but I think it’s similar. No question genetic tools are necessary. But they aren’t sufficient to be recruited.
Taking your example of Johnny and Mike, and assuming Mike is an average varsity swimmer…Johnny and Mike probably aren’t spending the same amount of time training and competing. Johnny is competing for state, regional, possibly national championships. He is likely competing at invitationals during the season that Mike isn’t. His season is longer, his commitment and time spent during the off-season far higher, and the intensity of his focus during the season qualitatively different.
Mike can miss sleep to finish a paper, eat whatever he wants before a race, take a few weekends off during the season, and spend very little time focused on swimming in the off season without anyone noticing how it affects his performance.
Johnny can’t do any of those things because missed off season training, poor sleep and nutrition, not rehabbing injuries, skipping big meets, poor mental focus, not doing all the little things right will cost him a spot on the podium and likely recruiting interest.
There’s just a huge difference—in terms of dedication, time, focus, and stress—between being a participant and being an elite and recruitable athlete. I spend a decent amount of time around HS athletes and the difference is pretty stark in terms of mindset and dedication to excelling at the sport. I know parents of participants that didn’t even know the state meet was happening, let alone regional or national meets. Their kids are already focused on papers, exams, hobbies, college apps by that point. And they are baffled by the idea that a sport would affect family vacation plans, prom attendance, the ability to take the ACT more than once.
The other difference I see is that competing to win throughout a season is completely different than simply participating. It’s the difference between an intensive technical job interview and hanging out at the coffee shop with friends. Both might only take 3-4 hours but that doesn’t mean they are the same thing.