Mwfan1921:
Obviously, I have more questions than answers, and I am not advocating for a certain set of behaviors or policies. It is difficult for everyone, and students will go to the colleges that have the policies they desire…safety and lots of restrictions like Amherst, or like there is no pandemic at Virginia tech (just to take two examples).
To a large extent, Delta’s high R0 is basically forcing a policy choice that no one wants to admit, because vaccination alone will not stop it (bring Re below 1), leaving only policy choices that are bad:
Why the Delta variant’s R0 of 6-9 means that stopping it (bringing Re to below 1) with just vaccination is unlikely:
or, for those who prefer it in <280 character chunks:
https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1422595227798364173
The other conclusion is that getting unvaccinated people vaccinated helps reduce Re more than vaccinated people getting boosters. Of course, it may be that the remaining unvaccinated people have a lot of hard-line refusers, so getting them vaccinated is unlikely.
Of course, the policy implication is that we then have a choice between:
Trying to bring Re below 1 with vaccination plus additional measures like mask and social distancing requirements, restrictions on indoor gatherings and travel, etc., which people are tired of and which have negative implications on education and other things, or
Giving up on trying to control COVID-19 and let the vaccinated people hope that the vaccines’ reduction in getting COVID-19 and reduction of bad outcomes if one ge…