“Could be” does not necessarily mean “will be”.
Not “thousands”, since more than 1 in 1,000 die of COVID-19, though mostly concentrated in older people who are less likely to be in school. But if long COVID-19 is included in “bad outcome”, the apparent 20-30% rate of that suggests a single digit number of mild or asymptomatic cases for every “bad outcome”.
1 Like
You are correct - the CDC’s current disease burden estimates are at about 6 deaths per 1,000 infections, and of course there are other bad outcomes besides deaths. Thank you for that correction - best to be accurate here to the best extent possible. Unfortunately, neither “long-Covid” nor the more unusual side effects from vaccination is well understood. Both range from the very mild to ER-level urgency, with a heavy skew to “mild.” Delta has created an uptick in vaccination - no surprise there - and throughout we’ve seen that vaccination likelihood increases with age (and with disease outcomes) - also no surprise.
I thought the Amherst statement was mostly good, but this is not true. There is zero evidence that vaccinated people transmit as “easily” as unvaccinated. We know a minority of the already minority breakthrough cases can transmit. We also know that the window for potential transmission in vaccinated people is shorter than unvaccinated. The rest of what we “know” is from anecdotes, not from actual measurements of viral load or transmissibility.
7 Likes
sitting here crying. My S who has been very vaccine reluctant is finally getting the JnJ this friday,(he had gotten an exemption–did not make me happy) but his school has an indoor mask mandate again and he has basically said " I am not going to follow it". " I get vaccinated and now it just like last year again". So now we will be forced to turn his classes to online format, and keep him home all semester. I will not be telling him this until after he gets vaccinated this friday. Thank goodness I have not finished paying the bill. If he goes back he will be kicked out of the classroom and possibly expelled.
please note that he is ASD. He has only had one real college semester so far out of 4, now going into his 5th.
2 Likes
And so it begins….
Wait…he’s getting the vaccine and your’e keeping him home? AND not telling him?
3 Likes
Yes, I’m totally confused what’s happening here.
3 Likes
I think he doesn’t want to follow the mask mandate and they will keep him home to keep him from being expelled for noncompliance. Tough spot to be in 
I’m not talking about online classes for the semester. I’m talking about a recording if/when a student has to quarantine. I agree last year was dismal. My S wouldn’t go back (and we wouldn’t pay either) if he were going back to zoom classes, though I do fear this might happen, after it’s too late to do anything.
Oh, wow. Okay.
wow…definitely not right (I don’t want to judge) Mom probably knows best, but he was so hesitant and now he is finally getting it. This could lead to major trust issues.
Let him go …he will probably comply when he gets there …and the masking may not be for long…or at the very least tell him before he gets the vaccine.
7 Likes
I know, I just was thinking about the discrepancy between what gets communicated and what happens in reality along with the lack of planning/practical solutions.
If i thought he would comply once there I would let it go. I need him vaccinated, but I also dont need him expelled. Oh and as of right now 1/2 his classes are on zoom anyway. This fall at RIT is worse than last fall now. We still have masks and at least last fall he had all hybrid classes. And this is with almost all students vaccinated.
I need him to get vaccinated (this friday JnJ) , but if he wont comply with the mask mandate we have to switch to all online anyway (yes he can have an online schedule) and why pay for housing? ASD makes it hard to reason with him once he digs his heels in. It took until now to get him vaccinated.
I totally understand. My cousin as ASD and can sometimes be very stubborn. He also has trust issues which can lead to anger. Not to give unwanted advice because you know your son better than anyone. But maybe tell him before he gets vaccinated. I wouldn’t want him vaccinated under false promises.
Last year I was at Tufts with masks, testing and a lot of virtual. But I still was able to have somewhat of a college life, made new friends (current roommates) great teacher connections, worked, explored (to a small extent) a new city and learned to live on my own. Was it perfect? Definitely not …but who knows when that will be.
5 Likes
Last year my S had a very hard time. He has social issues and needs to be around people but doesnt know how to make friends. He also relies on facial expressions to read people.
If after he gets vaccinated he backs down from breaking the rules he can still go, but to not wear masks snd not then go to class, tuition$ gone. Switch to all online classes, why pay for housing.
That sounds like my cousin to a T…the difference is he was so afraid of covid…he rushed out to get the vaccine as soon as it was available …without telling his parents.
I feel bad, hope it works out for your son.
As bad as covid is on everyone, it’s so much worse for your son and my cousin…and so many others.
1 Like
We have more than anecdotes. If we look at the Barnstable County data it appears that, unlike prior variants where very few vaccinated would present with symptomatic Covid, the number of symptomatic infected who were vaxed well outnumbered the unvaccinated - by nearly 3x - despite a near 70% vax rate in the county. The Barnstable County data actually suggests that vaccinated might be as likely to contract the Delta variant and present with symptomatic Covid as the unvaxed! Combine this finding with the comparable viral loads, and we can see why the vaccinated are now recommended to mask indoors. ETA: TLDR is that the vaxed may be as likely to contract and transmit the virus as the unvaxed.
2 Likes
Totally get what you’re saying, and if I were paying full freight at a private school I’d be flipping out. I’m not concerned about it here because by the time we’re done with fin aid it’s actually quite reasonable, even for zoom school.
Of course if D were going to a private school, I expect we’d be looking at mandatory vax, surveillance, and masking, and I’d be much less worried about reverting to zoom unless/until a solid vax-defeater emerged.
I’m actually not so worried about false negatives, especially since you can do follow-up testing if necessary. It’s not the Olympics. If you’re stressing about missing one or two classes while waiting for results, I don’t know how the kid’s going to get through life – people get sick, have children with problems, miss things.
1 Like
This isn’t what’s suggested or the right conclusion to draw. If Barnstable County were 100% vaccinated and some of them got infected, 100% of the infected would then be vaccinated. It doesn’t at all imply the vaccinated are more likely or equally likely to be infected.
9 Likes