That was true last year, but this variant’s turning things on their ears. Remember that about half of K12 can’t be vaxed yet. Unless those kids are wearing N95s and doing it well, and I don’t see how you’d manage that, you can expect some decent transmission in school. Visually, if you’re imagining a classroom with virus particles floating around, with any unvaxed population that’s got delta zapping about, you can imagine the air pretty well swarming. Cloth masks will help, but virus will get through, and the more time you’re marinating in a situation like that, the more virus gets through. Social distancing in rooms won’t matter.
If districts were smart, K-5 would be online with a lot of group play and learning opportunities outside, masked. At least get the social and running-around parts in there. Lovely time to learn about nature, which is seriously overlooked in standardized curricula.
But if you’re already in a town with low transmission and so few cases then where is the Covid coming from to spread through schools? The kids in our neighborhood wear masks into stores etc but play with friends indoors without masks constantly and no cases. I guess we will see but I’m not convinced that Covid will be rampant and spread in K-12.
It won’t unless it shows up in enough nodes. Once it does, you’ve got a whole unvaxed population there waiting for it. That’s why AUS and NZ have been so incredibly aggressive – and yet even with that, they’re having trouble with delta among their largely-unvaxed populations. It’s just very contagious.
All that has to happen is people traveling, people visiting, anything that has people going in or out of your local bubble there. You’ve got a reprieve, which is great, but I’d just be ready to make some changes as the surrounding areas get hotter.
I’m also aware of an entire 1st grade private school class in quarantine in Charlotte after a beginning of school year pool party.
I may be related to by marriage a family of 6 that all got COVID in the past week in the Carolinas, 2 parents under the age of 40 with no preexisting conditions and 4 children under the age of 10. They don’t know if the parents got it first or it came from a private school environment again with a mask optional policy.
After traveling north the last few days with my youngest for a drop off in New England it was shocking to see the lax masking attitude the further north we went. Although disappointed with recently announced restrictions it is better than last year’s alternatives.
It is coming north wether you all like it or not and K-12 is not exempt this time.
More people vaxxed up here will make a difference. Won’t be perfect but I have to think highly vaccinated areas are going to weather this storm better than Georgia and NC.
I would like to hope you are right, but I know far too many breakthrough cases all over to think the NE will somehow escape the delta variant this fall. And there are now 7 variants. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Apples to apples, 78% of eligible Israelis over 12 years old are vaccinated per the article I posted. 70.5% of eligible Maine residents over 12 years old are vaccinated per Maine’s covid vaccine dashboard: COVID-19 Vaccination Dashboard | Covid-19
The premise of the source you cited in support of your erroneous claim is that it is Israel’s (median age: 30) very young population that is driving the resurgence.
Maine (median age: 45, yikes) has far fewer children and young people, period, and as of today 52% of its 12–18s are fully vaccinated (90+ in Brunswick). As of August 10, only 26% of Israel’s 12–15s were vaccinated.
Israel has a slight edge in vaccinations for the very old and trails Maine significantly in every other age band.
And it can’t be said enough: virtually every single person on Bowdoin’s campus is vaccinated. Delta thrives in the unvaccinated and the vaccines are still doing an amazing job of disrupting transmission.
K-12 schools that were in-person were likely much more restricted last year (e.g. low density classrooms, only partially in-person due to de-densification, masks and shields, no unregulated recess or lunch periods). Going back to somewhat pre-COVID-19 normal in-person would increase the risk of transmission. The Delta variant is also more contagious than what was going around last school year.
It depends what part of the state you’re in. My town is 99% vaccinated. Brunswick, where Bowdoin is located, is similar. It’s the far-flung, rural parts of the state that bring the average down.
The vaccinated will weather it much better, from every bit of data coming in, but children under 12 and the immunocompromised are having a picnic spread out on the train tracks. So anyone undergoing chemo, who’s had a transplant, who has an immune disorder, etc. Also the parents and caregivers of all those people.
So I guess it depends on what you mean by storm-weathering. If you’re a parent of a young child or caregiver to someone vulnerable, I’d say prep for a hurricane. And if you’re not, I’d say be very conscious of those people around you, and do your bit to protect them. Mask when you’re with someone you don’t live with, avoid hanging out sharing a lot of air, etc.
Long COVID: not mentioned (as usual, long COVID is neglected in studies).
Risks were higher for those with some pre-existing conditions (particularly heart or neurological). Age over 10 and Black or Asian ethnicity were also associated with higher risk.
Yes. These will be pre-delta studies. This is the hard part: getting people who are actually concerned about covid to shift their thinking from wt covid to delta – where the answer at this point is “we don’t know, but we see more severe illness in kids now.” This article covers the marshiness of where we are pretty nicely, I think:
I think we’re in one of these times where there’s enough mess, chaos, and novelty that there just isn’t a way to be definitive, so if you’re thinking about what’s most important in your life (and giving a thought to what’s most important in other people’s lives), you’ll be cautious.
Our K-12 was all in person no distancing but with masks from spring break on. All cases were from outside of school. All contact tracing (and there was a LOT) resulted in zero cases transmitted at school. Big school districts. 25+ kids in each classroom. High school has 3000 students.