The vaccines aren’t going to solve that issue. They don’t prevent transmission.
It’s like the flu vaccine. Younger people generally do better with the flu than the 80+ cohort. Both can get flu vaccines but the older person is much more likely to have a poor outcome if they catch it.
Sometimes it’s the other way around.
So let’s not just rely on the vaccine then ! Keep the indoor mask mandates. keep online learning as an option and incorporate economies of scale So that more students are admitted to the online program but charged at a lower rate.
Allow companies like Amazon to sponsor online / hybrid college degrees for its working class workforce at a lower cost and the flexibility for the workers to continue working full time hours. It win win for society at large a more educated population and greater upward socio-economic mobility.
That’s a lot to unpack, not really what I was commenting on (why schools should not expect zero Covid cases this year if vaccines and uneven masking are the primary tools) and I can’t see any of the schools we’ve been discussing taking up online education as an option.
Not to say some of the larger publics or schools that already have a larger commuter population might not explore offering online learning going forward but from what I’ve read and heard most colleges and their students and parents are extremely happy to leave remote learning and campus restrictions in the rear view mirror to the greatest extent possible.
Actually, before the Delta variant, it was the case that enough vaccination could have resulted in herd immunity (ancestral variant R0 around 2.5, Alpha R0 around 4). But the Delta variant’s R0 around 8 is too high now.
With minimal restrictions beyond vaccine requirements, they will have to accept outbreaks. Most students looking for a residential college experience are not going to be satisfied if they must maintain social distancing at all times, cannot visit friends, cannot go to indoor parties, get thrown into quarantine because they were near someone who tested positive, etc…
The fact that the vaccines are less effective than hoped against infection or transmission absolutely does not mean that they don’t prevent infection, period. They most certainly do.
This might have been answered already but CDC will investigate if the outbreak is particularly severe or unusual (ETA not saying that’s the case for Bowdoin). UChicago got written up by the CDC last spring due to the number of variants involved in that outbreak. Usually such write-up include guidance for future public health practice.
Vaccines do prevent a LOT of transmission:
Many vaccinated people do not get infected despite exposure. People who don’t get infected can’t transmit.
If a vaccinated person gets infected, their immune system halts viral replication far more quickly than unvaccinated people do. Therefore, vaccinated people who get infected are less contagious for less time.
Vaccination is like SPF. If you have sunscreen on, you can stay out in the sun for much longer and not get burned. But if you go out in the sun all day in July, you may eventually get burned in spite of your sunscreen.
If a student’s roommate, significant other, teammate, or study-buddy has Covid, vaccination may not be enough to keep them protected, due to the intense level of exposure. But vaccination absolutely reduces transmission, just like SPF reduces sunburn.
Ok, I’ll rephrase that vaccines don’t affect or prevent transmission to the extent we were told they would or that colleges hoped when planning out their COVID protocols this year.
However, if that’s the case then why is masking necessary? If the majority of people don’t get infected then masking shouldn’t be required except for certain limited situations like airplanes, indoor concerts and theaters where a large number of people are squeezed into an indoor location.
I also wonder how we can know that’s true if there’s no surveillance testing of the general population? Maybe most infections are asymptomatic? It seems like many of the college students that test positive fall into that category.
When I look at a state like Hawaii that has a high level of vaccination and good mask compliance it makes me question how much transmission is actually occurring even with most people doing their part. Same with Israel and the UK. All 3 still have high case numbers despite high vaccination levels. Although there are still enough unvaccinated to provide fuel for the fire.
In any event, my point overall is that colleges will have to allow for a certain number of COVID cases (except perhaps the very small wealthy schools who can afford 2x, 3x a week or daily testing of students) because there will be a certain amount of transmission that occurs.
Yes. My daughter’s roommate had a breakthrough case 2 weeks ago (put into isolation). Slight symptoms, mostly for just 1-2 days. Went into isolation. I was sure my child would end up with it, too; they spend all their time together and beds are very close! Hard to imagine a higher level of exposure! Thankfully, no transmission! She did have Moderna, if that means anything.
Overall, their school had a sizable (for them) outbreak approximately 2 weeks ago. When the kids returned this year, the plan was for just 1x per week surveillance testing, which was not frequent enough to prevent that outbreak. Then they went back to 3x per week testing, not changing much else (they already had an indoor mask mandate excluding dining and dorms, but they kept in-person classes, in-person dining, gatherings, meetings, sports, activities, etc). The newly re-introduced frequent testing has brought their positive cases to a tiny trickle (no cases today; 1 yesterday; at its height it was about 25 cases per day). They have a strong vaccine mandate. It appears that a fully vaccinated campus coupled with frequent testing can keep things under control 
without having to do more annoying restrictions. The kids don’t mind the testing (the school makes it very convenient and they get results very quickly). The only people going into isolation are people who test positive (but close contacts do go up to daily testing for about a week, but do not need to quarantine). But they would have been upset if they had to go back to takeaway dining, gathering restrictions, online classes, etc. Also, my understanding is that none of the kids who went into isolation got very sick at all; her roommates brief cold symptoms seem to be on the worse end of things, thankfully.
I took a look at the dashboard of some of the schools mentioned that had early outbreaks (Duke, Cornell, etc) and it looks like most of them are getting their outbreaks under control. I’m sure they are all learning as they go and learning from each other. Fingers crossed for a good year.
I’d like to see data on which vaccine people with breakthrough cases received. A non-scientific survey by DH and his colleagues has every person with a breakthrough case they know of has had Pfizer or J&J and they’re up to 45 people so far.
My kid and roommate both fully vaxxed with Pfizer. Roommate had a breakthrough case, but my kid did not get it, despite small dorm room!
I agree, they will all likely be tolerating some level of cases, which makes sense (and there will be some level of cases everywhere—work places, homes, etc).
But I do think testing costs have come way down and most schools should be able to incorporate testing if they want. I remember last year, the Broad Institute made it reasonably affordable for Northeast colleges to get testing done, I think at about $20 per pcr test. I don’t know if they have lowered their pricing as they’ve gotten more efficient. But so many schools now have built their own lab capability, many are also happy with rapid tests or the wastewater, etc. Since we can now buy Binaxnow tests retail for $7 each at Walmart, I’d think that schools doing testing in bulk should be able to pay a fraction of that. If they can get testing done for just a few dollars each, say $4 per test x twice a week x 15 week semester, that’s only $120 per semester per student, which should be affordable by more than just the “wealthy” colleges now.
It makes sense that some very exposed vaccinated people will not get Covid, but others will, because there are more factors in addition to the vaccine. For example, each individual’s immune system and its response to the vaccine/Covid. To use the SPF analogy, sunscreen matters, but so does your skin’s natural protection (melanin). Of course, we all know whether we’re prone to sunburn, but we can’t know whether our immune system is particularly vulnerable or resistant to Covid.
Yes, true. But I think I read a study from over in the “Inside Medicine” thread that showed that the vaccines are cutting transmission of Delta (July data)….I believe it said Moderna cut approximately 75% of transmission and Pfizer almost 50% of transmission. So the vaccines are still doing a very good yet imperfect job of cutting transmission. So that reduction should be on top of the individual’s personal immune system situation.
Yes! They cut infection and transmission, enhancing what even the best immune system could do on its own. Some people’s immune systems are better primed by the vaccine than others, but if we’re talking about college kids, I think they’ll have some of the most protective reactions due to youth.
exact same situation for my D20 (both pfizer-vaxxed).
Just an aside, but I want to say I always appreciate your posts. You are great at explaining things in a very relatable way. 
That’s all, carry on.
Thanks, @DeeCee36 
. I think it’s easier for me to explain for non-scientists because I’m definitely not a scientist. I was intimidated by science in college due to math-phobia and the pre-med atmosphere. Later in life, I realized that I love science, especially immunology.
There should be a major and training for science writers who can evaluate research studies and translate for the public, but don’t need a science PhD.
A close family member earned a BA in English (concentration in Poetry, no less), followed it up with a Masters in Public Health, and spent many years doing just that, careerwise.