The second-best case would be that vaccines will be effective in preventing serious illness, hospitalization, or worse, in the vaccinated domestic population - which, over time, indirectly also addresses the number of people who had opted against vaccines.
(The tragic aspect are those parts of the world, where people don’t have broad vaccine access.)
Also don’t forget long COVID-19 effects, which are the most under-researched aspect of COVID-19:
Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern says that “Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant. Several labs have indicated that for one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) and this test can therefore be used as marker for this variant, pending sequencing confirmation.”
In other words, a positive PCR test result can give a preliminary indication of Omicron versus non-Omicron variant by whether the specific one of three target genes is not detected.
Curious thing about this - having seen how fast a massive dose of federal money can shift research direction, I wonder how long it’ll be till that’s a major push. I hope NIH don’t wait for the hospitals or their own labs to get around to pointing out nice clear research directions before they start committing money; it’ll be years before we really start making a move if they do that.
I don’t do a lot of NIH business, but so far I’ve heard nothing. I don’t like saying this, but I hope DOD gets on it if they don’t soon. DOD does know how to make things move.
Nervous that colleges are going to reimpose restrictions in places with high positivity rates like NJ and Delaware. Some schools are already warning international students not to go home for the holidays as they may not be able to renter the US.
Other than Wellesley, have any other vax-mandated colleges mandated the booster for students returning to campus after winter break? D21 attends a vax-mandated college and I’m wondering if they will announce a booster requirement. I just glanced at their dashboard and they currently have 7 positives (5 students. 2 employees) out of approx. 26,000 undergrads and hundreds of employees (246 total positives since August 2nd). Considering everyone recently returned from all over the country after Thanksgiving, 7 doesn’t seem like a bad number on a very large campus.
D will get the booster regardless - just curious if more colleges will require it.
Positivity rates are apparently rising significantly recently (albeit from a low base) on many campuses in the Northeast and Midwest. International students may face serious challenges when they try to return in January (when the current/upcoming wave is likely to peak). I wonder how domestic students will be affected. Some schools may change how they’re going to handle students’ return to campus in January.
I read somewhere that U Mass will be requiring the booster before students return in January.
Seven positives out of 26K undergrads is very impressive. Is the school conducting surveillance testing?
My son’s school increased testing to twice/week after Thanksgiving, and required that all students test by the second day back on campus. They have had 30 out of 5500-6000 U/G test + in past seven days. Not completely surprising as cases have been shooting up in the Northeast.
They don’t conduct surveillance testing. Anyone can get a test if they want it and they are testing anyone who comes into the health center with Covid-like symptoms. According to the dashboard, over 28,000 tests have been done campus-wide, since Aug. 2nd with 246 total positives. On November 30th (the first full day after returning from Thanksgiving break), 317 tests were given with 0 positives. On Dec. 1st 285 tests were given with 5 positives and on December 2nd 300 tests were given with 2 positives. We have a very active parent page and while there are a lot of reports of flu, mono, bronchitis and the like, there are hardly any reports of positive Covid (and much of that has simmered down since the beginning of October - I gather the kids are getting used to each other’s germs).
This is a vaccine-mandated university with 95% vaxed students and 94% vaxed staff/employees. Students had to show proof of complete vax by August 1st (minus those with religious or medical exemptions) and staff had to have at least the first vax by October 1st (I believe).
Which is reasonable advice and out of control of the schools. It’s quite possible for countries to implement knee jerk travel restrictions - or for more factual data coming in over the next weeks to be the “driver”. (Although if the latest variant of concern is already spreading within countries’ borders, what’s the point closing them?)
My hunch is that colleges will not want to retreat from hard-won reopenings. Having 100% vaccinations/boosters with mandatory testing may help manage incidents, and hopefully vaccines will keep illnesses on the milder side even if infection numbers were to rise.
So that politicians can pretend to do something that their less well informed constituents may be comforted by (or demand)?
Thus far Barnard has not - but their Primary Care Health Service has been administering boosters since CDC’s approval for all. They also have been actively encouraging and referring to use neighborhood pharmacies and city/state services. So if their weekly testing were to have drastic up-ticks in coming weeks, I would not be surprised if it were to become a mandate.
Here’s to hoping that it really is only for 2 weeks!
But were 26000 actually tested? Or is it 7 positives after having tested 10% (pick your number). I’ve seen people/organizations playing tricks by relating two unrelated figures, or claiming low-looking rates - when only symptomatic testing was done…
I’m actually glad that we saw North Carolina’s spike and how Duke dealt with it in the fall. Numbers are way down and even with the new variant, I can’t imagine they will deviate from their - test often but keep classes in person.
I don’t think they’re manipulating the numbers to try and deceive anyone. There’s no mandatory testing, so of course those without symptoms are not being tested (unless they voluntarily opt to do so). This is how it should work on a campus where vaccines were mandated and 95% of the population is in compliance.
Both of the schools that my kids attend hosted clinics last week, but have not yet required boosters. So I guess I would say they are encouraging, not requiring the shot (yet). Both clinics were completely booked so not all who wanted a booster were able to receive one on campus.
Thank you for clarifying.
You are perfectly right, that they can choose to test only symptomatic - but:
one would not confidently state that there are “impressively” 7 positives out of 26,000 (when in truth there is an unknown quantity of UNtested “positives”). It should be viewed/reported as 7 positives out of xxx symptomatic tested.
Knowing the results of colleges that are doing full weekly tests (and/or a certain number of random weekly tests) since the beginning of the semester, I would not be the least surprised if the real number of positives could be in the mid double-digits - which would still be a good/low number, but one just doesn’t even know that.
I’m not questioning the methodology, only questioning the presentation/interpretation of results.
I agree with this. Adding that at some schools there is no option to take classes remotely if one does test positive, meaning one can get behind in classes easily if they miss said classes for up to 10 days. So, at these schools (which aren’t surveillance testing) there is a significant downside to doing the right thing to get tested if symptomatic.
I’m starting to wonder, if Omicron takes over and proves to be less severe than Delta, are quarantine/isolation protocols going to change? At the schools that test everyone regularly, are they really going to make a student miss ten days if they have something closer to the common cold? Or would a less severe strain still possibly cause long Covid symptoms so we just stay the course? If even the boosted students can catch Omicron and it’s so highly transmissible then we could see some spikes.