Omicron is not circulating in any meaningful way in the US, YET (we are doing lots of surveillance testing now, see Dr Gottliebs report this morning). Delta cases are rising (again) in the typical 2 month covid pattern. Portugal has vaccinated 88% of the population, 98% of eligible population and is having a huge case “surge” (just got added to the level 4 CDC travel list). Their hospitalizations are low and deaths are very low. This is endemic, but is not being treated that way.
Omicron will blow this process up. If it turns out mild, and we keep surveillance testing people (and quarantining contacts), the case counts will blow up, like it would if we were testing for the common cold. In no other pandemic was testing like this available, and I think we are in over our skis at this point. Hopefully omicron pushes out delta and ends the crazy (at this point - with high vax rates) surveillance.
Why would a college go online to prevent omicron 2 weeks before the term is over?? Omicron is not circulating yet Crazy town.
If the omicron symptoms are mild, why would they still need to chronically (and some would say, obsessively) test? The choice to become fully vaccinated is out there (and is free). I understand that there are still those who are too young to be vaccinated - and in those cases I would expect that the parent would take necessary precautions about bringing under 5’s out (and being out themselves in unmasked situations) - much like I did when my kids were babies and there was the danger of rsv (which also kills babies, but the numbers aren’t high enough to be on the media radar). Also, another killer on the uptick - whooping cough.
We don’t surveillance test for flu, mono, meningitis, pneumonia or STD’s on college campuses (several of those can kill). At some point we have to get off the hamster wheel. Those that have been vaccinated should be rewarded with relative normalcy and those who have chosen not to be vaccinated have hopefully made peace with their decision and the potential consequences. Everyone, regardless of vaccine status, still has the free will to decide what situations to put themselves in. Plenty of intel out there now as to which colleges surveillance test and which colleges have relaxed mask mandates. Pick your poison.
Not sure why you tagged me, but I agree…why would we surveillance test if omicron is more mild than Delta in terms of death rate and long covid rate…that’s what you really mean, right?
Currently for Delta, it’s also true that most cases are mild… yet in some cities/countries healthcare systems are overloaded with severe cases.
The hospitalization numbers (at least in my area) are still fuzzy re vaxed vs. unvaxed (and related pre-existing medical conditions). I would love to see more clarity on that.
ND just announced a booster mandate. They do not do surveillance testing of vaccinated students and there are little to no restrictions on campus. It seems to all have worked out for them so far.
If COVID becomes endemic, or its effects no worse than flu, starting with Omicron, colleges would stop testing it. But they don’t know that yet. Neither does anyone else. Surveillance testing isn’t a substitute for vaccination. The colleges that do frequent surveillance testing all mandate vaccination. The purpose for testing is to be able to isolate infections so they don’t spread quickly and uncontrollably to the rest of a densely populated campus, especially to the more vulnerable population. However, if they can’t isolate (e.g. because they run out isolation/quarantine spaces), the value of testing by itself is questionable.
Looks like they had a spike after Thanksgiving break and that has passed. Either one or zero cases in recent days. Bowdoin has a slight spike upon return too. Nine cases total. I think only two were related to one another.
Yes, they had a spike right after Thanksgiving. Because they do testing upon students’ return to campus and surveillance testing, they were able to isolate those infected students. But the isolation dorms are now at full capacity. Hopefully there won’t be more infections. I believe UPenn has a similar situation.
I go back and forth on surveillance testing but, without it, what are all of those students doing if they returned to school after break and feel sick? I guess some choose not to get tested. Maybe positive with a mild case and pass on to others. I’m guessing, if they feel really sick, they get a test and then go home? Not sure if all schools still have a place for them. Colgate doesn’t test everyone and, for the first time in a while, has three kids in isolation
I am getting off this hamster wheel soon. S19 is graduating this May (did college in 3 years). he has a very negative view of college since out of 6 semesters he only had one normal one . We were hoping it would be 2 (this coming spring), but it does not look like it. Last may/June it looked hopeful for this year. yes, he has classes in person, and clubs meet, but he has to wear a mask. Keep in mind for a kid on the spectrum not seeing peoples faces impacts him greatly.
I am also concerned about requiring boosters as it was hard enough to get him vaccinated.
BTW at RIT for the semester they are up to 300 cases in students. They dont test regularly. Had a surge before Thanksgiving. Finals now start.
My junior’s school (Hope College) is somewhat different from many I see discussed here because they recommended but do not mandate the vaccine. At the beginning of the Fall semester they reported that 83% of students were vaccinated. They do wastewater testing, and unvaccinated students have to test every other week. Vaccinated students only test if they report symptoms, are a close contact, or are in a dorm in a location where wastewater testing suggests a possible outbreak. They have an indoor mask mandate.
The Health Center just sent out an email expressing concern about rising cases of Covid-19 and influenza. There are currently 27 students in isolation, which is a big jump. For most of the semester at any given time there were fewer than 10 in isolation. The email read in part:
Data for Influenza positive cases: November 1, 2021 - December 3, 2021
Out of 227 influenza tests administered in the Hope Health Center, 67 were positive (29% positivity rate)
841 students have received their 2021-2022 Influenza vaccine through the Hope Health Center. That is only 27% of our full time student body. We can do better!
Data for COVID-19 positive cases this semester:
56% of all cases were not vaccinated for COVID-19
37% of all cases were fully vaccinated, but doses given were prior to June 2021 (no booster)
2% of all cases had only one dose of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine
2% of all cases were fully vaccinated, and doses given were after June 2021
1.5% of all cases did not receive vaccine within the recommended intervals
1.5% of all cases were fully vaccinated and had booster*
*There was reasonable cause for these cases
This data shows that the majority of our positive COVID tests are coming from students who are not vaccinated against COVID-19, or have had their primary series more than 6 months ago. Even though we are seeing some breakthrough infections (which is expected), they tend to be more mild. Recent data has shown that those with breakthrough infections tend to clear the virus faster than those who are not vaccinated, and may also be less likely to transmit the virus to other people. This is important to help prevent as many infections as possible, which in turn will decrease the burden on our extremely overwhelmed hospital and medical systems. The less COVID (and influenza) they have to deal with, the more care they will be able to provide for other types of emergencies and medical issues that will inevitably arise.
Is RIT still doing their waste water surveillance testing? If so, wouldn’t that be a way to zero in on cases that might otherwise go unnoticed as it prompts mandatory testing for a particular cohort? My D is an RIT graduate with lots of friends still there I’ve remained somewhat interested in what’s going on.
Best wishes to your son. D had an amazing experience at RIT and I am sorry it did not work out better for your son.
I’m not sure it’s that hard to back off. For example, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to want to do your part to prevent your community (colleges, in this case) from contributing to the massive burden hospital systems are facing (in a very large part of our country, the burden is currently awful, we still have places that have to cancel surgeries and procedures, etc, and staff is simply overburdened. I recently spent 48 hours in the ER before getting a bed for my very ill (not covid) family member, pretty miserable, due to the extra burden of covid, and we are not even in one of the current worst states). Rampant spread among healthy college students can obviously escape to the surrounding community which may be more vulnerable, and contribute to the issues we have at our hospitals. Therefore, an obvious exit ramp from college surveillance testing, in my opinion, would be when hospitals are not under threat from covid. We haven’t quite gotten there in all states, but we will. I’m certainly among those praying that omicron proves to be mild and supplants Delta. Should something like that happen and the heads of hospitals are no longer worried about their capacity and staffing, I would not think surveillance testing would be reasonable anymore.
I’ve also seen many colleges that perform surveillance testing increase & decrease the frequency of testing depending on the local conditions. I do not think it is very hard for colleges to back off from testing when conditions warrant it.
They say that they are , but so far , unlike last year, we have not heard of testing students because they found it in wastewater.
The daily dashboard is not very data informative.
In a way they are doing what they have to do. (require vaccines, over 96% are currently vaccinated), and those who are not have to do weekly testing. Next semester, the number of exemptions is going to be very limited.
Sorry to hear that your area doesn’t reveal that info.
Fortunately, the huge discrepancy between vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospitalizations and death is widely available (and absolutely conclusive where that info IS being tracked) in virtually all other states, e.g.:
Our governor’s daily CV graphic only recently included % of hospitalized who are vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The % of hospitalized who are unvaccinated has been increasing slightly each week.
Five hundred patients are currently hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19; of those 386 ( 77.2 %) are not fully vaccinated.
As of December 05, 2021, 25793 cases of COVID-19 among fully vaccinated persons in Connecticut have been identified. Of the 2433460 persons who are fully vaccinated, 1.06 percent have contracted the virus.
For the week beginning November 28, 2021, unvaccinated persons had a 4.5x greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 compared to fully vaccinated persons.
For the week beginning November 28, 2021, unvaccinated persons had a 31.1x greater risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to fully vaccinated persons
It takes a couple of weeks of having Omicron patients and observe their progression and eventual outcome, to see if and how the illness develops or what chronical effects it might produce in various patient classes. All that’s known is how rapidly it is spreading - everything else right now is conjecture/hope.
We could have stopped testing before Delta, or after Delta, or…
Basically, systematic testing (whether random, wastewater, or mandatory testing) will help us being alerted for the next letter in the Greek alphabet - which could mean an extra few weeks time in case vaccines or treatment drugs need to be “tweaked”.
As long as there are large parts of the population not yet vaccinated, there is a hightened risk for all of us that more elusive variants can develop and hold.
Then again, we also don’t lose 1,000 people a day to all of those combined?
Nor are you as likely to get infected in the course of taking classes or sitting in the same library.
Thank you for those resources (although my state doesn’t appear to be reporting via your links). What I did glean from the links you provided supports the general consensus that vaccines are working to minimize hospitalizations and prevent Covid deaths. Thus, I continue to wonder how long we are going to have to live this way in order to protect those who choose not to be fully vaccinated. If, based on the data, we conclude that the unvaccinated are responsible for the current burden on the healthcare system, when will the liability shift onto their shoulders? (Not looking for you to answer this, DigitalDad - just musing)
To bring this back to the topic, I am satisfied with the handling of Covid at D’s university and hope that they continue in a like manner for the remainder of her 4 years there.
Yes - but to anyone who has lost a loved one to any of those illnesses, the only number that matters is ONE.
How nice that Bowdoin is being reasonable. Williams is still super strict, masks everywhere except in dorms and while eating – even the cast of the student musical had to perform masked. The administration sent out a stern reminder to students last week reminding them of the mask mandate (and sent it to families as well). They are testing everyone, once a week if vaxxed, twice a week if not (99% of students are vaxxed, 96% of faculty and staff). They have had fewer than 20 positive student results since they started testing in late August; there are almost 2000 students on campus this semester. Parties seem to be limited to private gatherings, nothing campus-wide. Honestly, it’s been a bummer for my first year–no traditional first-year dance, just a generally subdued vibe, especially as a non-athlete. For a school that’s saying they’re concerned about students’ mental health, I’ve been disappointed. They have tried to address issues surrounding academic stress, but that’s about it. I just hope that they don’t cancel January term due to Omicron, but wouldn’t be surprised if they do.
