Of course chefs and dentists can be replaced.
At this point, I think the scope of AI is almost beyond human comprehension.
@sorghum:
How?
Would you let a robot inside your mouth?
And how would robots cook different meals every week?
As a lawyer, certain aspects of law, while not automated can be and are being streamlined. Take family law, personal injury, and workmen’s comp. All of this, statutorily, can be streamlined and made so simple that a lay person can do it. You cut that out, and what you are left with are complex litigation, corporate matters, and real estate. Already, there has been a huge push to streamline simple corporate matters. So, complex litigation and real estate is law’s real last stand. That is way I do not recommend anyone going to law school. I’ve been in this field for nearly two decades. I have hired and fired attorneys. I know what the job market is like. Given the cost of a law degree and the realities on this end of the license…I just wouldn’t do it.
@hannuhylu wrote
Welders and carpenters can be easily replaced. Look at the assembly lines of auto manufacturers. Robots have been welding for a very long time. As for carpentry, CAD handles that.
@PurpleTitan - If nano robots can clean out your arteries and fight cancer, I would imagine they could also be used to clean out plaque and remove cavities.
Robot chefs already exist - http://time.com/3819525/robot-chef-moley-robotics/
@eiholi wrote
Then my kids are set because they are both lefties (which is weird because dh and I are both righties and the only other lefties in the family are in their grandparents’ generation). While strong in STEM they are both highly creative as well, musically and artistically. I see them pursuing both passions in post-secondary. The younger one in particular enjoys the merging of art and technology.
@GoNoles85 instead of accounting how about actuarial sciences? Actuaries are involved more in high level analysis rather than pure computation, though the same is true of management accounting.
@PurpleTitan wrote
@HarvestMoon1 wrote
AI is already being used to write news reports - http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/robot-reporters-replace-journalists-one-9069938. As for fiction - http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/japanese-ai-writes-novel-passes-first-round-nationanl-literary-prize/
@MaineLonghorn wrote
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Automation may not be able to replace all aspects of those jobs but it could replace enough such that 1 structural engineer or architect could do the job of several so that fewer are needed. Look at how CAD has revolutionized drafting and interior design and certainly engineers are not doing structural load calculations in their heads.
Also it’s not so much your job that is at risk (though that is a possibility) it’s that of your kids’.
The ability of automation/AI is one thing. Whether it is value-added is another thing. There is cost associated with automation/AI, and Automation/AI does not always yield more benefits relative to cost. In addition, effectiveness is also a consideration. I think one thing that is quite nice about the McKinsey report is that it takes both technological feasibility and financial feasibility into consideration for 7 broad categories of activities/tasks.
What do AI and robots offer to business? Efficiency
What happens to businesses which become more efficient? Profitability increases
What do more profitable business generally do? Grow
What do businesses that are growing do? Hire skilled people of all types - Finance, Accountants, Engineers, Admin.
AI drives growth and jobs.
In replies #8 and #10…
However, many creative jobs tend to be high-Gini (where a few winners take all, but far more worry about paying the bills).
The bookkeeping part of accounting starts with source documents. It used to be that source docs were sent to accounting, accountants would analyze them, create journal entries, post the data to the ledgers, using software of course, and that would create the unadjusted and then the adjusted trial balance and eventually the financial statements. Humans would write the F/S footnotes but that is only required of public companies using full GAAP.
In private companies, a similar process would result in quarterly F/S and payroll tax returns. To automate all that you simply start with the source docs … let the computer “read” the source docs and feed it directly into the accounting system. AI could eventually make all the required adjusting and closing entries and even take past transactions and use them to set the budgets for the next period.
Tax compliance at the federal and state level is almost 100% reliant on software as it is. The humans job is data entry, explaining what happened to the taxpayer and tax planning.
Just like in finance, the grunt work is being automated. What happened to my college friend who just got laid off after 25 years with a public company is based on the fact that they wanted to save money so they cut a few heads now and then. Most of his job was making presentations to higher ups and to do that he had to use liberal arts and soft skills. Of course, he needs his accounting skills to make the presentation and answer questions and explain things to the managers.
I could picture a day when a robot made the presentation touching on key metrics like ROI and EPS. He got laid off because they can hire a college grad for cheaper. The college grad will he get worked to death and then suffer the same fate about 15 years from now.
This is why I told both my kids don’t waste your time in the Corporate Rat Race. No thanks. My friend is a CPA and a CMA so he will find a job at a smaller place, for less money, but he will end up being much happier. I left the CPA world a long time ago and never looked back. I missed absolutely nothing except headaches and ulcers. @gwnorth I think being an actuary is even more number crunching intensive so it sounds soul killing to me and easier to automate. Just put the numbers into the machine and throw in a few assumptions. Dear God no.
My 19 YO son and I are discussing various options that make sense and that basically boil down to some LA skills, some integration of multiple disciplines, a little prayer, and so forth.
@gwnorth, CAD doesn’t make a real building. We are far from robots actually being able to erect all sorts of different buildings in different ways.
@HMom16: Robot chefs may exist, but notice the grow in appeal for anything artisanal. Whether people would prefer a robot chef vs. a human chef for a luxury good is the question.
The world will continue to need people who are smart, creative (not necessarily in some type of artsy way but able to think outside the box), hard working and flexible. Flexibility may be the most important as the pace of change will continue to increase.
" Robot chefs may exist, but notice the grow in appeal for anything artisanal. Whether people would prefer a robot chef vs. a human chef for a luxury good is the question."
This is true but only to a certain extent. The vast, vast majority of food out there cannot be called artisanal by any stretch of the imagination. It’s a small subsection of the market.
For those who subscribe to the WSJ…article from a couple days ago
Liberal Arts Colleges, in Fight for Survival, Focus on Job Skills
Some schools require humanities students to take math and statistics courses
"With their students facing rising debt and pressure to land a job after graduation, colleges and universities are focusing less on the meaning of life and more on how to earn a living.
This evolution toward pragmatism has been under way since the 1990s, but the speed of change is ramping up as politicians threaten funding for humanities programs to nudge students toward more profitable endeavors. The class of 2017 will leave with an average debt of roughly $35,000."
“The number of humanities degrees declined by almost 9% between 2012 and 2014, according to a 2016 analysis from the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. That led to a drop in humanities’ share of all bachelor’s degrees to 6.1% in 2014, the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1948.”
@PurpleTitan, no CAD doesn’t make real buildings, but it does make it possible to make real buildings with fewer people. 3d printers on the other hand… 
The quickening pace of change in labor markets relative to the speed at which people can retrain themselves for new and different jobs when their old jobs disappear is one reason behind the gloomy view of future employment among many (and the political search for scapegoats for such a situation). The increasing tendency toward requiring credentials or professional licensing for many jobs also means that retraining may require increasingly expensive formal education, which may be unaffordable for someone who has no income because his/her job disappeared.