It’s also why noncoastal regions have been suffering brain drain now for decades, and why it’s increasingly difficult for people to get out. 20 years ago, I used to hear young people trying very hard to stay after getting their college degree, not wanting to leave, or vowing they’d find a way to come back. Now a lot of them just run, and if you suggest they come back you’ll feel some heat. That’s not just the economics; it’s also the politics that have changed with the economics.
Suppose you grow up here, or in some similar place in the broad middle of the country, with a not-great K-12 system funded poorly by both the state and local property values. That’s not your fault, obviously, but you’re told that you’ve had a wonderful education, and how would you know the difference? You get good grades, which probably isn’t very hard, and go to college, which makes everyone happy and proud, and despite some family opposition you decide to go to the state university rather than the community college because you want some kind of profession and you just feel ambitious. You’re also told that your state university is the bee’s knees, and nothing in your world tells you much different. Sure, there are people freaking out online about going to these wildly expensive schools you can’t even think about, but it’s hard for you to imagine having that much money in the first place, and if you did, the idea of throwing it away like that is beyond how you think about the world. You see zero advantage to doing any such thing and don’t know anyone who has. If you brought it up to your parents, they’d just laugh.
So you go to college, you come out, you’re a cheerful and gregarious person and your parents have a lot of friends, so you get some sort of entry-level something that pays around $40K and is close enough to home to make you and your family happy, which is great because you’re about to get married anyway and you want to be close to someone’s mom. You both have student debt, it’s a lot, and you kind of weren’t expecting how much you were going to struggle, especially once you have a kid, which will be soon because everyone has a big family and while you think that’s excessive, you definitely want a couple of kids and you think it’s wrong to give them old parents who can’t do much with them. In fact, once you do have a kid, you’re aware that you couldn’t make it if it weren’t for your moms doing daycare for you. Both of you are employed, but loans plus kid stuff plus your house that your dads helped you buy so you could catch a break on monthly housing costs (rent! it’s too high!) plus cars plus…it’s too much. You hunt around but the jobs that really pay well either require experience or ed you don’t have or are basically scams.
Nobody helped you figure this out ahead of time because all your parents have spent their adult lives seeing everything upended time and again and they get through by just trusting that something will turn up and relying on family and trusting in God, which is most of what they’ve got. Not all of your parents went to college. Money conversations are few and grave: it’s not done to talk about money.
After four or five years of this you and your spouse are coming to the conclusion that while you love everyone you’re never going to get ahead this way, and you’re starting to be worried for your kids. You’re checking up on the school situation and fretting about it. And you want to get out. You spend a lot of time talking about how family members managed it – an aunt who works for an airline, a cousin who has a mysterious business in Delaware, someone who became a lawyer, people who went career military – and you’ve been scrolling Glassdoor and other such sites to find out where people make money.
Problems: one, you know no one in these other places, meaning that you’d move somewhere with zero supports, hard enough on your own, a serious problem when you have young children – you’d have to figure in a lot more in childcare (and because you’re thinking about what friends pay, you’re wildly underestimating it).
Two, where are you going to live? Housing is so crazy expensive in all these other places that you can’t figure it out. If you sell your house, that’s good for…approximately nothing that you’re seeing. You can rent tiny apartments forever and you don’t want your kids growing up that way.
Three, although you don’t know that you’re not trained in competitiveness like people in these other places have been all their lives and you’re likely to get smashed by people who really know how to go after a job and make the job go, you sense that there are important things you’re not picking up on and you’re nervous. You’re beginning to suspect that you have what you have because you know local people, not because your college education’s making you such a worldbeater.
Four, you’ve got loans. Like together you’ve got $60-70K worth because your spouse got tricked by a private college’s teaser rate and had an expensive year before they bailed and transferred to a state U. You’re trying to pay them off. You’re worried about risking leaving your jobs and going into a bad situation where you can’t even make your payments, because you know the way to really get sucked under is to let the debt snowball.
Welcome to “bird in the hand”, where the situation obviously isn’t great, but you’re getting by, your kids have lots of family around, and things could be worse. What you’re not really aware of is that this situation arose somehow, and that post-industrial America has been just fine with sucking all the resources to the coasts and letting the invisible hand sort it out and letting the military be the employer of last resort. While being heavily subsidized in sucking the resources to the coasts. You’re not stupid, you sense things are going in the wrong direction, there are family members whose politics are so conspiratorial you won’t let them babysit the kid if you can get out of it, but there isn’t a whole lot you can figure out to do apart for going back for more school of some kind (which you might do), so you decide to suck it up, be as positive as you can, especially in public, and fret a lot at your spouse at home. Odds are excellent that the resolution will involve church. Now and then you’ll have a private conversation with a young person who’s got a shot at leaving and you’ll get suddenly super-focused and urgent and tell them to get the hell out while they’ve got a chance. No one will speak of that conversation again, though the kid will take it seriously.
It’s a problem that I think is much bigger than the ed problems are. I don’t know how you fill that hole. But I do know that what these places need more than anything is good jobs, and if you have a well-educated workforce, that’s an attraction. Which is part of why I’m fully in support of dumping a ton of money into public K-16. By itself, I don’t think it solves the middle-of-the-country problem, but I do think it’s a necessary piece.