You did not do anything wrong. because you were successful in coming up with a list of schools where you would be happy. I think it’s perfectly understandable that you are a bit surprised and upset with the outcome. When one makes up a list with reaches, targets and safeties, there is that expectation that the safeties are just that–certainties, that there is at about a half a chance at the targets and a small chance at the reach schools. It would not be surprising to NOT get into a reach, but usually at least one target school acceptance is considered typical and not getting into a safety, belies the term.
However, a lot of other things come into the picture. If you are applying to engineering or as a premed or other programs that are oversubscribed, the overall acceptance statistics do not reflect the selectivity of that major. My friend’s son was turned down from Purdue at a time when his stats put him at a 90%+ chance of acceptance. But the program, he wanted was the Aerospace one which is one of the most selective at that school, and the chances were much much smaller with a lot of candidates with stronger applications. The same goes for CMU–the accept rate for their Music or Computer Sci programs are far, far lower than that for the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, and the overall accept rate is not particularly relevant to those looking at those ultra selective schools. I knew a young lady who played the flute, and auditioned there–found out later they accepted ONE flautist that year out of a ridiculous of number of applicants. Her chances were in the low single digits, not CMU’s average. She did not know that when she applied. She learned through the process.
Also when you applied can make a difference. Engineering spots can fill up fast. If you live in an area that is over represented, your chances may not be so good. There are some schools that make it a priority to have a national presence and they have separate admissions pools for those who live in state and those who live out of state and give those who live in states that are underrepresented a leg up.
You can also fall onto the wrong side of the stats. Yes, it’s bad luck, but it is statistically possible to be denied at several 90% accept schools and be accepted to several >10% accept schools When you are dealing with less extremes in numbers, it becomes increasingly more of a coin flip, and yes you can get 11 heads in a row. It does happen. There are a whole set of stats that can give you the likelihood of getting accepted or denied at places with various accept rates that goes deeper into the analysis.
Yes, your counselor leaving mid year, and unremarkable recommendations could have made a difference. Most high schools have gone to giving narratives instead of checking the blocks on the rec sheets, but others have not, and at some colleges , not checking the “most rigorous” curriculum and other top blocks can make a difference. So would lackluster narratives. It’s unfair because some teachers and counselors simply do not, cannot write great recommendations. I always tell kids and parents to give the recommenders a “cheat sheet” with pretty much what you want covered in the recs, to make it easy for them. If they write the recs when tired, depressed, in a bad mood, stressed, in a hurry, too much to do, too many recs to get done, it’s easy to get writer’s block and just not be able to focus on the subject at hand. Yes, it’s their job, and it’s a serious responsibility, but sadly a lot of mediocre recs get written.
You did well with your school list; a lot better than most kids I’ve known. The application process is over, and it’s now time to focus on matriculating at the school of your choice. I’d focus on the two acceptances, after writing a note to the waitlist school if that is your preference, looking through the forum on how to approach a waitlist. Ask the new guidance counselor to put a written word in for you, and guarantee you’d take the spot if offered. Make a sample note that s/he can use to send to the school, personalizing why you are such a great fit for that college, that program, because doubtful the new GC is going to know you well enough to give you more than a generic note. Then just forget about that school and focus on the birds in hand, and prepare to go to the one you like best.