Differentiating between reach, match, and safety

<p>I'm compiling my list of schools I plan on applying to, but I'm having a lot of trouble figuring out how I'm supposed to figure out what schools I can put into the three categories. I'm getting really skeptical and tired of the numbers game, but are there better ways of differentiating between admit chances than US World & News' ranks and percentages? I have a 4.4 weighted GPA (3.98 UW) and 35 on the ACT, so I've above or at the top of the middle 50% for just about every school, and don't know what I should be looking for in terms of schools I'm applying to (besides my preferences for living conditions and majors and such).</p>

<p>tl;dr: How do you find and categorize colleges for reach, match, and safety?</p>

<p>Generally speaking, a safety is a school you’ll be admitted to, a reach will deny you, and a match is a toss-up. But I think you’re asking for a more specific reply; I had similar stats (3.83 UW, 2320 SAT, 2400 SATII), so I’ll share my system of categorization from when I applied:</p>

<p>Safety: Only need to apply to one. Admittance guaranteed, significant merit aid expected.
Match: Likely to be admitted, but not guaranteed. Possibility of merit aid if admitted.
Reach: Any school with an admit rate under 20% (statistically unlikely admittance).</p>

<p>I applied to 11 schools. Only one was a safety (ASU), which offered its greatest merit scholarship. The rest were reaches (Schools ranging from Harvard and Princeton, where I was waitlisted, to Columbia, Pomona, Duke and Georgetown, where I was admitted), except for perhaps USC, which was more of a match (and offered me merit aid).</p>

<p>I sympathize.
Very, very roughly, if you have an accomplishment in the top dozen or so on some dimension in the country, you are a good candidate at HYPSM. If not, apply anyway.
Almost anywhere else, worth the price of an application fee.
My daughter’s best high school days friend had a 1600 on the (two part) SAT and a 35 ACT, and straight "A"s in the Chicago Public Schools. She was admitted to Harvard, Yale and the University of Chicago (with full tuition scholarship there). She attended and graduated from Yale. I’m guessing that her accomplishments as a ballet student may have been overestimated, but that she would have been admitted to one or more likely two regardless.
A smart person, as you are.</p>