From what I have seen, I believe a student with your profile with a strong application (good essays and recommendation letters) can expect some acceptances at schools with 25-50% acceptance rates, but should not expect acceptances at schools with an acceptance rate of under 10% unless they are a recruited athlete.
That said, go ahead and apply to one or two of your most favorite highly selective schools because you never know how your particular application will be viewed. Just don’t go in with any expectations.
That doesn’t mean that your hard work, commitment, and achievements are meaningless. It’s just that when you pool the top 5% of hardworking achievers from all the high schools in the nation, there are not enough spots in the 25 most selective colleges for them all.
At many of those schools, many spots go to students with family connections (alum parents, donors, etc.). Even at schools who do not consider that, their first picks will include recruited athletes over other athletes in the same sport and students who fill other institutional needs — like perhaps they want more first-generation college students or more students from Nebraska. After those spots are filled, the few remaining spots often go to the very rare kinds of students you see profiled on the news for unusual nationally-recognized achievements in science, the arts, and/or activism.
I think there is way too much societal focus on getting into a selective school as a “reward” or acknowledgment of excellent high school performance. The reward comes later, when you are able to excel in college courses and stand out to professors and hiring managers because of the superior discipline, time-management and interpersonal skills, and academic foundation you brought with you from high school. And you can use those to your advantage at any college.
So flip the script. Instead of focusing on the school’s selectivity, focus on your own. If you didn’t know their selectivity rate or ranking, what schools would you consider ideal based on location, size, cost, programs offered, typical college experience, campus “vibe,” etc.?