Does the first transcript in y12 matter a lot?

Hey guys. I’m an y12 international student doing the IB curriculum. There are basically two transcript grades from y12, one after christmas and one at the end of the year. I totally screwed up my first one (35/42 so its like 38/45). I heard a lot of people saying that the end of year one is much more important. Say I get 39 or 40 out of 42 for my final one, which I can if I work hard, will I still have chances to get into a really good university, say top 20 in US?
(p.s. my Sats are good enough for ivies, and assume my leadership, activities, essays and all these stuff are solid)