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<li>Why does the single-initial crowd have SCEA?</li>
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<p>The narrative I have in my head – which may be accurate, may be folklore, or may be something with a grain of truth that I have misremembered over the years – is that Harvard initially tried unrestricted EA and was “swamped” by an unmanageable number of early applications – which at the time I think was 4,000 or so, or a bit more than a third of what Chicago and Georgetown get now. So SCEA was adopted as a governor, to limit the number of early applications filed by imposing a restriction and creating an artificial cost.</p>
<p>And, realistically, it may actually be sort of necessary for that purpose. I would assume that if HYPS took its restrictions off, each of the colleges would receive a number of early applications probably in the vicinity of 100% times its own early applications plus 50% times the sum of early applications currently received by the other three of them, plus MIT and Chicago. Say, 20,000 apiece, give or take. That WOULD be a challenge to process. It would also create a huge incentive to take more kids in the early round – if you defer a top candidate, who’s to say Princeton won’t snap her up? – which would probably shift more applications to the early category in following years, and wind up completely gutting the RD round (which is already at least half-gutted).</p>
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<li> Slithey Tove makes a really good point that has not been fleshed out enough in this thread: It is everyone’s assumption that there is an admissions advantage to applying ED or EA, because the admission rate is so much higher in that round than in the RD round. But we never really know what the actual admission rate for unhooked candidates in early rounds is. The ED and EA rounds at selective schools get used heavily for athletic recruiting. Of the 800+ kids Harvard just accepted EA, as many as 200, and maybe even more, may be athletic recruits. And there are probably some professional musicians and developmental admits in there, too. Those groups really form a separate admission pool with an acceptance rate approaching 100%. The EA acceptance rate for “normal” genius children at Harvard is really the remaining slots filled divided by almost the entire EA applicant pool. The effect may not be so large at Harvard, which after all accepts a lot of kids EA. At schools with fewer EA acceptances, and smaller classes overall, this effect could be really important.</li>
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<p>There’s another feature, too, that I believe does not apply to HYPS but does apply to almost all of the rest of the colleges we are talking about. Many colleges do not allow foreign students seeking financial aid to apply EA or ED. As a result, those applications swell the RD round, and really constitute a separate pool there, one with a much lower than average chance of admission. So if the Early pool contains a decent number of 100%-chance applicants, and the Regular pool contains a huge number of ultra-low-chance applicants . . . then maybe for domestic, academic applicants, there really isn’t that much difference in acceptance probability between the two rounds. At the very least, the difference is probably far less than we commonly imagine.</p>