<p>since there are no more early decisions hwo will this affect rd? will the acceptance rate for rd rise from like about 10% to 15% or something?</p>
<p>Yeah probably slightly.</p>
<p>Actually, Jon, I don’t think that’s correct. The RD acceptance rate this year will be significantly below 10% (as it has been for many years). Next year, when both Princeton and Harvard do away with their early programs and have just a single admission cycle in the spring, it’s difficult to assess what the acceptance rates might be. My guess is that they will remain somewhere around 10% though it’s possible that they will drop given a probable increase in the number of applications due, in large part, to the publicity surrounding the change. </p>
<p>Harvard suffered a significant drop in the number of U.S. applicants this year that was slightly more than offset by an increase in the number of international applicants for an overall increase of less than 1%. Yale saw a very significant drop in total applications nearing 10%. Princeton saw a significant increase of about 8%. Given this wide disparity of experiences this year, I would say that it’s difficult to guess what might happen next year. However, I wouldn’t count on anything near a 15% admission rate for any of these three schools.</p>
<p>Let's figure this. Princeton accepts around 1200 RD right now (in order to fill half their class). Since they take half their class ED, that will double the RD acceptances to 2400. Figure on 20,000 applicants total (up from this year's total, though it may be higher), and you have an overall admission rate of around 12%. Why is it higher? Princeton will accept more people, because unlike ED, not all RD applicants will matriculate (in fact, only a little over 50% do, according to the Common data set [link]<a href="http://registrar1.princeton.edu/data/common/cds2005.pdf%5B/link%5D">http://registrar1.princeton.edu/data/common/cds2005.pdf[/link]</a>. The percentage won't go up to 15%, but it will go up SLIGHTLY (as I said before).</p>
<p>im dying to get in.</p>
<p>You could be right, Jon, but I don’t think it will work out that way. </p>
<p>If you assume that there will be 20,000 applicants total in the single pool and you are projecting a 12% admission rate, then, as you point out, you would be projecting 2,400 offers of admission. Since the class size Princeton will be seeking will probably be about 1,275 (it’s growing slightly each year), Princeton would have to believe that the matriculation rate for the single pool of admitted students would drop to 53%. This is highly unlikely, given that the single pool will include most or all of those students who have made Princeton their first choice and who would have applied ED had it been an option. The reason the current RD matriculation figures are that low is that the current RD pool is missing all those committed Princetonians who are in the ED pool.</p>
<p>Last year, Princeton’s matriculation rate for all accepted students (both ED and RD) was slightly over 69%. I suspect that the admission office is guessing that this will drop somewhat in next year’s single pool, but it is highly unlikely that it would drop to the 50% range and I’m quite confident that the admission office will not base its admission decisions on such a low projection. The word I’ve heard is that Harvard also believes that its matriculation rate will drop slightly and that there will be even more overlap in the two applicant pools than there is now. </p>
<p>The other thing to remember is that the wait list is likely to be used much more heavily next year. Princeton did not go to its wait list last year and may not this year either. Harvard has used the wait list a bit more frequently. I’m guessing that both schools will limit their acceptance rates and then use their wait lists to fill up the class if matriculation is lower than expected.</p>
<p>If I had to guess, I’d go for a drop to around a 60% matriculation rate without using the wait list. That would translate to about 2,125 offers of admission for a 10.6% acceptance rate. </p>
<p>I could be totally off here and you might end up being right but I would be shocked to see the matriculation rate in the single pool next year drop to 50%. Also, what neither of us knows is what will happen to the total size of the applicant pool. If it goes up or down significantly it could significantly affect the admission rate.</p>
<p>I think it will be very interesting to see what happens. I can imagine one scenario in which Princeton and Harvard both lose applicants to Yale and Stanford who are keeping their early programs. On the other hand, I can also imagine both Princeton and Harvard benefiting from the publicity surrounding the change with the result that total applications increase at both (particularly international applications) and that Yale and Stanford also see drops in their matriculation rates as students in their early pools turn out to have been more committed to Princeton or Harvard but applied to the others simply because they still had early programs. It could surprise us all.</p>
<p>I don't understand how deferrals work really....do they set a percentage of deferred students to be accepted or do deferred students come into play if there is a weakness in the applicant pool? I mean do they sit down and say, "Okay we are going to accept 14% (since that's the number we've thrown around) of the students deferred..."</p>
<p>I hate being deferred. yikes!</p>
<p>^^No one really knows for sure :).</p>
<p>i hope they lose applicants a lot of them so i can get in.</p>
<p>^^good luck :)</p>
<p>thanks. did u check out my chances thread by any chance?</p>
<p>chill .</p>
<p>I really hope that having applied ED, that is somehow factored in during RD process...</p>
<p>i'm pretty sure it is because they realize that you'll be more likely to matriculate</p>
<p>i dont know about harvard, but for princeton, acceptance rates will most likely rise. It doesn't have 100% yield for 500 of its students anymore due to early decision. Yield rates will have to drop because students are not in a binding agreement (early decision) with the university; they are not being forced to go there. Because the yield rate will go down, more people need to be offered spots in order to fill up all the spots available in Princeton's class. Thus, the admissions rate should go up, even if slightly. Or who knows, maybe Princeton will start using their waitlist more</p>
<p>lols. yay!</p>