<p>I agree with speedo. The tippy tops get what they want. How are the Georgetowns, Wake Forests and Tulanes of the world holding up?</p>
<p>This is very surprising to me. I expected a big drop in yield: both because of the recession and the higher number of applications per student. I’ll be interested in seeing what comes out in September and how the not so elite colleges do. I wouldn’t be surprised if down the road we see big dropout rates as families scrape together enough for freshman year and can’t pull it off for sophomore year.</p>
<p>Or even sooner…maybe some families are saying “Let’s say yes and figure it out between now and September”</p>
<p>Anyway, here’s hoping that the worst is over, that this recession is no worse than the average recession and all these dads and moms will be back at work soon and confident about the future.</p>
<p>few have deposited @more than one school.
Elite school & also @ cheaper public school.
We have to wait & see which one wins out @ the end.</p>
<p>You can be denied admission to any institution that discovers you have deposited at more than one school. Not to mention that adds to the wait list issues, etc.</p>
<p>What would the mechanism of discovery be?</p>
<p>“He knowns when you are sleeping and he knowns when you’re awake.”</p>
<p>The kid could just claim a parent or grandparent screwed up.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Lower yield this year = less selective next year. That’s what may be happening at a lot of privates this year. And that is of great concern to next year’s applicants.</p>
<p>There’s an extended article yield trends in InsideHigherED today. The real figure to watch may not be yields but discount rates:</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>[News:</a> ‘Show Me the Money’ - Inside Higher Ed](<a href=“http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/05/11/enroll]News:”>http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/05/11/enroll)</p>
<p>Williams saw its applications decline 20 percent, its acceptance rate increased by almost 4%, and its yield increased 5.5% to 47.9%, which means it might not use the waitlist. It was a crazy year.</p>
<p>I’d guess that the Williams scenario will play out, perhaps in less extreme forms, elsewhere: lower the bar a bit at the admissions cusp, knowing that students there yield in higher numbers than applicants at the top, who typically have lots of attractive choices.</p>
<p>Here is a reason that “show me the money” matters, a sobering reality for many new grads:</p>
<p>[College</a> Graduates to See Low Wages for Years - WSJ.com](<a href=“http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124181970915002009.html]College”>http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124181970915002009.html)</p>
<p>totally agree with both Cardinal Fang and Speedo…a lower yield in RD could absolutely mean an easier admission process, especially for ED, full pay students and even RD for next year…</p>
<p>and, yes, it is too early to tell…but I agree with speedo, the 2nd tier and other privates will tell this story…never expected yield to decrease in either the top 20 or in need blind schools.</p>
<p>“I’d guess that the Williams scenario will play out, perhaps in less extreme forms, elsewhere: lower the bar a bit at the admissions cusp…”</p>
<p>I’m still not convinced that’s what’s taking place at the 25 big name schools. For the big dogs I just think they’re moving further into the 4.0/2400 pool. they’ve always had too many apps for the number of spots, now they have a (little) bit lower number of applications, but I’m not sure that translates to lower quality. I’m very interested in seeing the freshman profiles. That will be another indicator if there’s been a shift away from high-price privates to lower price publics.</p>
<p>When it comes to admissions to me there are a few things in play:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>The population of available high school seniors is going down from an all-time high. There are just fewer bodies out there to get.</p></li>
<li><p>The economy. If anything I see applications going up because of the lousy economy. For the price of the common application fee, a student and their family can apply to dozens of schools hoping to his the FinAid lottery.</p></li>
<li><p>The economy. My speculation is that this year (2009-10 apps) will see the real big jump in public school activity. We Americans are nothing if not optimistic, I think there are a number of families who have been hoping/praying that the recession will be a short one and that 2008-09 was an anomaly. As reality dawns that we may be in for a prolonged rough ride, more and more people will be forced to consider the in-state route.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>What does it all mean? Maybe, just maybe, after years of colleges holding the upper hand, there may be a shift back toward the student. Good students have always been in limited supply, as the population drops and more choose to attend public schools, the private institutions are going to have to become more aggressive in going after who they want at their schools, MarathonMan’s link implies that it’s already starting to happen.</p>
<p>I’ld like to add another variable, Vince, and that is that the demographics of HS grads are changing – and I predict there will be a lower % of HS grads looking at 4 year schools, more for CCs, armed forces, trade schools.</p>
<p>Spring,</p>
<p>My D accepted her first choice, and is definiately going there. But the deposit form said NOTHING about it being binding, just reserving a spot, housing, etc. </p>
<p>It is LAC that is not top tier, but she likes it. The school is in constant contact with her – questionnaires for housing, for advisor, you name it. My guess is that they will know if their will be summer melt.</p>
<p>thanks to Marathonman for posting the inside higher ed article. That was
an excellent analysis.</p>
<p>The whole CSU system is trying to reduced enrollment by 10000 because of budget problem. They end up with only 4000 less. This means that the yield is higher than they expected.</p>
<p>^^Or, that just means the 10k number was a scare tactic by the bureaucracy looking for more $$. :)</p>
<p>Speedo nailed this one. The real story will be what will happen to yields at the second and third tier LAC’s. The other story that has yet to play out fully is what will be the impact of summer melt. It seems that in these uncertain times, more people are hedging their bets with multiple deposits. I’m not here to argue the ethics or morality of doing so, only stating a current trend that will keep enrollment officers and waiting list candidates on the edge of their seats right up until Labor Day.</p>
<p>I’m wondering if any one has any insight into how selectivity and yields are playing out for out-of-state students at Public Universities. With budget cutbacks, colleges are needing the higher out-state tuition dollars to bridge budget shortfalls. Many colleges are actively romancing OOS students as they need the money. However, OOS student yields appear to be down as students turn to cheaper in-state alternatives. Has anyone seen any hard data or public commentary on OOS yields?</p>
<p>We’ll see what happens when the time comes to pay that tuition bill. Our little Catholic school has been hit very hard this year. A hefty deposit is needed for the following year’s tuition along with the commitment contract. The last payments for this academic year are now delinquent and the reminders are getting a bit testy mentioning that final report cards will not be given to anyone who is not fully paid. Well, that means a lot of money needs to be handed to the school, and the number of parent balking is at a record high from the last 20 years.</p>
<p>I know some families who have sent their deposits to their kids’ schools in the euphoria and spirit of the college application journey’s end. College deposits tend to be small as compared to our schools 4 figure deposit, and it is easy to send that check. The litmus test will be the payment of first semester costs which has to be done before the student can register for the second term. That has been the point of no return for those who do not have the money and have to face the fact that they cannot get the money for that school year. That’s the crunch time in my opinion.</p>