Economics PhD

This is somewhat of a difference “chance me”

So I am thinking about applying for a PhD in economics and currently I am almost done with my M.S. in Economics from a top 30 university (the program is designed to prepare for a PhD so the classes are essentially 1st year PhD courses) however I will not be completing a thesis.

My expected Graduate GPA is around 3.3.
My undergrad was a 3.9 but from a less prestigious school.

I have taken all recommended math classes for a PhD except for Real Analysis and topology, and have gotten A’s in all of them.
My research experience is limited to class papers (econometrics based)

I applied for a PhD to a top 70 school while I was applying for a masters degree, and I was accepted. I declined because I did not know if a PhD was right for me and I did not want to do something I was not fully invested in.

Are my chances of being admitted to a Top 70 School now worse that my Graduate GPA is a 3.3?

I have heard that having an MS should give an edge in admissions but assumed this was likely due to more research experience.

The edge in PhD admissions following a masters is primarily for students who lacked undergrad credentials in the field that they are interested in pursuing. For example, a math major with few or no undergrad econ classes.

Why do you want to pursue an Econ PhD? If it is because you want a tenure track career in academia, the odds aren’t great outside the top 15 or 20 programs. If you’re looking to go into business, banking or government (except the Fed - where hiring for research economists looks very similar to academia) a much wider range of programs will do.

What about applying to the institution where you are completing your masters?