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Although demand will go up, so will outsourcing. India and China have armies of engineers who will work for very cheap. No company will pay higher salaries when they can outsource so easily.
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<p>Let's not forget that outsourcing can and will affect EVERY service job, not just engineers. Engineering outsourcing gets all the hype, but the fact is, business-process outsourcing in general is a giant trend. For example, instead of hiring a highly paid analyst, investment banks can just hire a bunch of cheap quant jocks in India to do all their grunt spreadsheet crunching and preparing of financial reports. Instead of hiring a whole bunch of low-level lawyers do your legal research and preparation of briefs for you, why not just offshore that? Have a bunch of Indians do all your company's tax returns and accounting books. All of these things are already happening. Basically, any job that involves the processing and manipulating of information, not just engineering work, but all kinds of business backoffice work, can be offshored. Heck, even a lot of medical services can be offshored. For example, if you need elective surgery, like plastic surgery, or LASIK, or ACL knee surgery, and your insurance won't pay for it, why not get it done in Asia for maybe 1/10 the cost? Medical offshoring has already become a booming business in India. Indian doctors are already analyzing Xrays, MRI's, CAT Scans, and the like for a fraction of what an American doctor would charge. </p>
<p>The point is, I don't see that engineering as significantly more threatened by offshoring than any other service job. </p>
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HOWEVER, the catch (according to Penn's data) is that over the long run, about 10 years, Engineers' salaries are eventually overtaken by Wharton grads by about $30k (101k for Engineering vs 130k for Wharton, the latter with average bonus of 100k), and matched by CAS grads. Neither wharton nor Engineering release data for salary based on specific industry. The college, however, does and it states in its 10-year out survey that graduates from the college employed in financial services average $480,000 per year, which is absolutely tremendous. Also from the college at Penn, the average salary for consulting is $140k, and $195k for law.
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<p>I would like to see this data you are referring to. However, I think you are neglecting a key aspect of the data - namely that many Penn engineers don't work as engineers but themselves go into finance and consulting. I know quite a few who've done that. </p>
<p>Hence, it seems to me that you have a strong aspect of self-selection here. Sure, I agree that those CAS who get into financial services do very well. But the question is, how many are able to get in, and what happens to those that don't? I have a very hard time believing that the average Penn Art major manages to catch up to the average Penn engineer. I agree that the few Art students who get into consulting or financial services do very well, but what about all those that don't or can't? </p>
<p>Furthermore, as a point of reference, I would direct you to the salaries of graduates at MIT. Note specifically the kinds of salaries that bachelor's degree graduates in engineering make. Now, I think we can all agree that MIT is a better engineering school than is Penn (does anybody seriously care to dispute this?). Yet the fact is, there are a significant number of MIT engineers who don't make 55k. Many do, but many don't. </p>
<p>Hence, I highly doubt the notion that Penn engineers are guaranteed to be making 55k to start, when even the MIT engineers don't make that.</p>