<p>I wonder if the AO was referencing a specific category–white females for example.</p>
<p>At this point I will quote Mark Twain: There are three kinds of lies…lies, damned lies, and statistics.</p>
<p>Merry Christmas!</p>
<p>Two types of people who give statistics a bad name:</p>
<p>1) those who don’t understand it and think it’s a lie;
2) those who understand it and manipulate it for their gain.</p>
<p>Disclaimer: I’m no statistician but have known some of them, whom I dare to stereotype as an honest bunch of naive academics.</p>
<p>SharingGift: I think you’ve just described 95 percent of the human race…</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Wonder why people tend to use number 95 or 99, not 85 nor 97… Mmm…</p>
<p>First, a disclaimer: personally, I don’t think number crunching like this is useful; I think a general understanding that FA applicants have a tougher time is sufficient. All these numbers are based on multiple assumptions, compounding possible errors. And I just don’t think it’s important to know whether your odds are 7% or 12%. </p>
<p>ANYWAY…I know many ccer’s like to crunch these numbers so…here’s my input:</p>
<p>All the above statistical calculations do not allow for recruited athletes or other recruits, who would have practically 100% chance of admission. Nor do they include faculty children who are getting a free ride (I think) but maybe are not classified as FA. Also I’m not sure what their rate of acceptance would be.</p>
<p>I am guesstimating that perhaps these special situations might apply to 10% of admits. I’ll let someone else dispute my numbers and plug them into the formula somewhere.</p>
<p>Food for thought.</p>