This.
The most amazing thing about the admissions process is how the kids evolve during it. Even if essays get written in the summer, they almost always benefit from a review/re-write at actual submission time. For many (though not all! at least not in our house…) students the maturing during autumn of senior year is so dramatic you can nearly see it. The only one of ours who actually got essays done over the summer pitched them all- because she had matured so much in her thinking about college (and for all of the collegekids, the best essays came towards the end, when they had a few under their belt).
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It sounds like the very high end schools are affordable if he gets in. That makes things easier. At some point between now and the end of December, he should pick 2-3 of the top 15ish schools to apply. That decision can be made later. The real legwork comes from trying to find alternatives to the state MT schools if you want. I would first focus on that part of the spectrum.
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OP here. We are open to all ideas. I know ivies are a reach for anyone and I think he wants to try for some once we can make a good list of what fits.
He is really not set on any location. My concern in posting was how to figure out what tools are quality and available to help find someplace that would suit him. I wanted to find what would be attainable and how likely aid would be since he doesn’t have naviance through his school and GC has no suggestions beyond researching myself. Same with scholarships. There are so many sites out there, it’s hard to navigate what is good and what to ignore.
Ok, toss in a few more apps than you had planned on. Owning a small business can make the NPC’s go wonky and come up with numbers that sound better than they sometimes are.
(Written by someone whose H owns his own small engineering firm.)
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Thank you for the great advice - I like the Rochester story. 
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I read something about if it is less than 50 employees. How did this work out in reality vs calculators for you?
Calculators hadn’t been invented yet for my older two (Rochester boy was one of those two). For my youngest he ended up just getting merit aid at his school. He insisted on only applying to one - would take a gap year if he didn’t get in or it wasn’t affordable. It looked like he would have gotten more, but… off by about 10K. Since it was one school it’s difficult to know if that would have been “normal” or not. I’ve heard plenty of other stories since then on here and IRL though, so pass on the “beware” comment.
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I mentioned the Common Data Sets in my earlier post. These are real data provided by the schools themselves regarding admissions, financial aid, class size, etc. Most schools post Common Data Sets annually (although my son’s school doesn’t for some reason). As an example, here is Stanford: Stanford Common Data Set | University Communications
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I’m encouraging Ivy because he’s second in his class at a large Montana high school, with expected high test scores, and good extracurriculars. An Ivy may be his best fit, likely will give the best aid, and he’s got a decent shot at getting in because he’s from Montana.
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These are helpful for scores and other demographics. I’ll have to take a closer look at the aid section. It’s confusing at first sight.
I understand your reasoning. My point to the OP is not to limit a search to a NE athletic conference at a time when they are just beginning a search. Ivies may be a fantastic option, but they are not necessarily the be all, end all for someone in MT or anywhere.
This resonates in our house because educators have often counseled my daughter to shoot for an Ivy and it made everyone kind of starry-eyed. Now that we’re really digging into a school list, it’s becoming clear that they really aren’t the best fit for her. It’s frankly hard to let go of the idea of applying, but we are trying to really practice what I’ve read about so much on CC — fit is crucial.
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@Southoftheriver I don’t see an emphasis on Ivy League schools in this thread, except in the context of money. It sounds like it might be an issue in your household but some of the people who suggest Ivy League schools aren’t into the “dream school” concept or chasing prestige, but instead found them to be a way to afford a good college.
You are right in stating that there are other schools that can meet full need.
Some high achieving kids need an artsy school, some are techy, etc. We used the word “vibe” rather than “fit.” PreCOVID that meant hanging out in the dining hall, library, and on the green as well as the usual tours and info sessions. An overnight was helpful- when will that happen again?!
To the OP, large universities, including the larger Ivies, tend to have lecture classes with the professor the “sage on a stage,” and then grad student teaching fellows/assistants run smaller sections and do the grading. At a smaller liberal arts college (which is why I mentioned “little Ivies” and Colleges that Change Lives and “Looking Beyond the Ivy League”) you are more likely to have a professor teaching a class of 20-25 and doing the grading. This can even be true at some state universities. As one progresses in the department at an Ivy or other larger university, you may have smaller classes, seminars and tutorials, and have a lot more contact with professors though.
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Even though Ivy League schools are worth checking out due to meeting need, it is important to consider fit when looking for some reach schools to add to your son’s list. There are other schools that have very generous financial aid (still low acceptance rates though) and those are what I had to focus on in helping my kids in their college searches. Once we knew the costs and likelihood of acceptance for our state flagship schools, most of the others added to their lists were schools that would likely give good financial aid and/or where they had a chance at a large scholarship to make the school affordable (so mostly reach schools). My D17 ended up at a top liberal arts college that is generous with financial aid, and my S19 ended up at a private university that is a great fit for him and was more generous with aid than the Ivy League school to which he was accepted. It was a ton of work during those college search years (definitely a part time job for me), but it was very interesting and I learned a lot. This site was invaluable. Good luck!
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@MomofNPCC You are no longer lost, you have found CC!
Most of what I would have said has been said already. A Fiske Guide is a great place to start - cheap on Amazon and often readily available at a public library.
Given his stats, especially if he qualifies for National Merit, among the WUE schools that offer good merit scholarships for students in participating states, I can recommend Utah (mentioned above), UNM (free for NMF and his stats would probably net him at least the in state tuition rate), ASU and U of AZ (both have fine honors colleges/programs and generous merit scholarships). If he wants a smaller school in a smaller city with easy access to outdoor recreation, try WWU (Western Washington) or NAU (Northern AZ). If he prefers liberal arts colleges, there are several in the PNW that offer good merit: Puget Sound (up to full tuition), Willamette, Lewis & Clark, etc.
Good luck!
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@MomofNPCC Regarding financial need, you’ll want to become familiar with CSS PROFILE, collect your records.
Typically colleges with best aid use it, and each may have supplemental questions.
Also your library may have guides on financial aid, such as The Princeton Review 2020 Guide to Financial Aid.
Or see Kiplinger Best College Values, 2019 | Kiplinger
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Ah yes, how could I have forgotten the CSS? (Perhaps selective memory at work…)
Glad you remembered it and posted it, @Hippobirdy
To anyone who hasn’t used it yet, you might want to be prepared with a good drink, take out food of choice, and/or a relaxing comedy afterward - reward yourself for what you endured and accomplished.
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I took the forms to my accountant to work on them. His twins were applying to college the following year, so he found it educational. There was no charge for this.
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OP, if I were in your situation, here’s how I’d go about selecting colleges to apply in the absence of college visits:
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Figure out the student’s interests. There have to signs of them in the last 10, 5, or 2 years. They may not be specific but at least directional.
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Figure out his strengths. What did he do well in, especially if it’s considered relatively “hard” but he did it “effortlessly”?
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Based on his interests and strengths, select his academic “matches”, which may or may not be admission “matches”. Use this website and/or college guides to help with the selections.
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Filter out colleges that are financially unaffordable by running them through their NPCs.
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Sort the remaing colleges based on difficulty of admissions. Label them as admission reaches, matches, or safeties. Go through the process again if there aren’t enough of them in each category. Make sure there’s at least one safety.
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If you’re looking for “merit” aid, you may have to lower your sights and add colleges that may not fully meet your other criteria.
Again, posters here can help you along the way. If you feel comfortable, you can reveal a bit more about your son, so they can make more accurate assessment.
P.S. Optionally you can add/remove colleges to the list based on non-academic criteria that you deem important.
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One of mine got into a tiny but well-known artsy school that unexpectedly met full need. (We still don’t know if merit was involved but I doubt it because she applied test optional) I remember Clark had a merit scholarship based on service. One strategy is to pick schools that do indeed “fit” and then look deeply into cost and aid. And specific scholarships.
I have to admit though, that we were kind of naive. The kids picked schools after we looked at some, applied, and then we looked at cost after admission but before they said yes. This is a risky way to go and may be a time waster but to be honest we had no idea how to research cost other than those schools that publicized their “meet full need” policy. This was before the calculator online. And it still worked out!
I just write that because it may all seem overwhelming but it really doesn’t have to be.
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