Fisher v. University of Texas: Predict the SCOTUS decision

<p>Xiggi, you didn’t address the hypothetical.</p>

<p>From what I have read of the SCOTUS arguments there was questioning of the UT lawyer as to why they give extra points for race when SES is the same.</p>

<p>Garre said there are no two perfectly equal candidates. It’s so hypothetical that it distracts. And, not extra points, but the admit. There are so many factors that can go into a holistic decision, no universal agreement race trumps everything else in these decisions- so, how do you get to “extra points for race when SES is the same?” Only by suggesting it hypothetically.</p>

<p>Fwiw, here are a few numbers for the graduating class of 2010:</p>

<p>Black 31754 12%
White 99560 39%
Asians 9707 4%
Hispanics 108767 43%</p>

<p>Total 254983 </p>

<p>As expected, the population of Hispanics graduating from HS is slightly above the total population, as this reflects a younger population participation.</p>

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<p>Considering that blacks and Hispanics lag whites by about 1 SD and 2/3 SD, respectively, on standardized tests of academic achievement, no. It is not the duty of the government to produce equal results by race. </p>

<p>Are racial preferences for college basketball teams permissible? According to your logic there is not sufficient representation of non-black kids.</p>

<p>Well, we could always look at the numbers of students presenting the SAT: </p>

<p>Black 22291 14%
White 67819 42%
Asians 8700 5%
Hispanics 57301 36%</p>

<p>Total 159688</p>

<p>PS And perhaps add the data of about 2400 Asians versus 3800 Hispanics admitted at UT. What is next? Digging deeper in the score distributions among admitted students? Or the percentages of 10 percent admits?</p>

<p>Wow, a lot of numbers, but not really to the point.</p>

<p>UT is not trying to match Texas demographics; they want to reach a “critical mass” (as defined in GRUTTER). The question is “what is critical mass” and “who makes that determination”? If SCOTUS rules for Fisher, they will make an attempt to answer those two questions. That would impact anyone using holistic admissions to reach “critical mass”.</p>

<p>Medical schools say they use holistic evaluations but the numbers say otherwise. AAMC publishes grids by race of those admitted to medical schools by GPA and MCAT. </p>

<p>Picking a middle of the pack number, for example, with a GPA of 3.00 - 3.19 and an MCAT score of 30-32; here are the admission rates by race:
Asian - 22.7%
Whites - 30.3%
Hispanics - 58.6%
Blacks - 74.4%</p>

<p>It defies credulity to think that blacks with those scores were just so much better at the other criteria of medical school admissions like quality of clinical experience, research, volunteering and leadership than the other groups that race was not the deciding factor in admissions.</p>

<p>lookingforward, yes, perhaps the numbers do show that. I’m not sure the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics that APPLIED - that would be interesting to see.</p>

<p>Certainly, you cannot admit more than applied, and you can TRY to attract a certain demographic, but there’s no guarantee. A lot of kids in Texas PREFER to go to other schools and would not apply to UT. Some of those preferences are centered around historically Black colleges. Still others, who may be affected by financial reasons, prefer to commute to whatever major university or college is closest. I know that Texas A&M in Kingsville, TX is 62% Hispanic, which is kind of indicative of the area. Texas State University in San Marcos has been working hard to attract Hispanics. Hispanic Outlook ranks Texas State 15th in the nation for the number of bachelor’s degrees awarded to Hispanic students. 28% of students there are Hispanic. Texas has Texas Southern University and Prairie View A&M that attract a lot of folks, and some of our guys relocate to Georgia to go to Morehouse.</p>

<p>I’ve been staying out of this in part because xiggi does a great job of representing Texas’ stats. But Tatin, what are the raw numbers of those med school stats?</p>

<p>TatinG, Statistics can get skewed QUICKLY if you’re comparing the a set of three students to a set of thirty.</p>

<p>Yes, Cromette, I understand that, but the numbers of people applying to medical school in any data range is small.</p>

<p>But here are the raw numbers for the 30-32 MCAT with a 3.00 - 3.19 GPA
Blacks 78/58
Hispanics 128/75
Whites 1,110/336
Asians 484/110</p>

<p>I looked at another set on the AAMC grid. A 25 MCAT is 50% for all test takers. Using the same B-B+ GPA the percentages and the raw numbers are this:</p>

<p>Blacks 360/173 - 48.1%
Hispanics - 30.2 (forgot to write down the raw)
Whites 1,115/108 - 9.7%
Asians 405/29 - 7.2%</p>

<p>Okay, so is there any sense of when this case will be decided?</p>

<p>TatinG, OK, so let’s say the school had 579 slots. If we look at the make-up of that set as a total, we have 10% Blacks, 13% Hispanics, 58% Whites, and 19% Asians.</p>

<p>Again, not sure this clearly shows that Whites and Asians are at a disadvantage.</p>

<p>It does show that there may be some effort to have a racially diverse set. But clearly, the make-up of the set overall is actually very skewed in favor of Asians. All other groups are at a slight disadvantage in comparison to the national population.</p>

<p>“Just read all the threads here that start “do I have a chance to get into X college even if I’m Asian”. They feel they are being discriminated against.”</p>

<p>Sure, they feel that way. That doesn’t tell us whether it is true.</p>

<p>“It makes no sense for the child of a black professional attending the same high school in the same neighborhood as the child of a white professional to be given extra points for being black.”</p>

<p>That is true if you believe that there is no racism in America, only classism. Or if you believe that racism in America exists, but it has no consequences besides making some people poor, and thus that black professionals and their children do not have to struggle against racism.</p>

<p>If you perceive that racism affects black professionals and their children, too, then the policy makes a lot of sense.</p>

<p>We don’t know when (they release opinions Tuesday and Wednesday mornings), though it will be in the next few weeks. So an opinion will be released next week, but it may be for another case.</p>

<p>The Grutter framework seems inherently contradictory to me. </p>

<p>“Critical mass” is defined “by reference to the educational benefits that diversity is designed to produce.” O’Connor noted that “the number of minority applicants with high grades and test scores has indeed increased [since Bakke]” and speculated that “25 years from now [now = 2003], the use of racial preferences will no longer be necessary to further the interest approved today.” This seems to imply that racial preference should not be used if enough minority students are admitted through normal means.</p>

<p>If “critical mass” is specified quantitatively, it becomes a quota. If not, how can admissions officers know whether it has been reached?</p>

<p>Hanna, of course rascism exists. That is not the question. The question is does affirmative action help or hurt with that. How many people, especially those in quant fields, are nervous about hiring a Black, even from a good school, becuase they are concerned that the person got there through affirmative action?</p>

<p>Thanks, GATOR. I knew arguments were made in the fall, but the new interest in this topic lead me to believe a decision must be imminent.</p>

<p>Too many elephants in this room. Chief Justice Roberts had to know his question was unanswerable (re: what’s the number?). At the same time, the “no AA” effects of Hopwood probably influenced the Grutter decision. Is the tarnishing effect of AA a better outcome than the exclusionary effects of Hopwood? Things were SO MUCH simpler back in the '50s when the freshman class was made up of white kids from economically secure families.</p>

<p>Really? Questioning whether a Black graduated in STEM because of AA? And then blaming AA for this ridiculous limitation? Do they also question rich white guys, who made have peen pampered in and through? </p>

<p>Throw out AA because prejudiced people are prejudiced?</p>