<p>I don’t think the college GPA can be predicted with much accuracy. There are too many variables. The same kid could receive widely ranging grades depending on the major and courses taken. For example - if the kid decides to pursue a humanities major the GPA may be high but if the exact same kid decided to pursue computer science at the same college the GPA might be lower and I’m referring to a student with aptitude in both areas. Some colleges indicate the average GPA and it’s often a half point or more lower in the engineering/CS majors despite those majors requiring an even higher academic qualification to be admitted to them in the first place vs some other majors.</p>
<p>Another variable is in the college itself and whatever grading regimen they happen to follow. Some courses may be graded on fairly strict curves and some people will definitely be in the top, middle, and bottom.</p>
<p>Also don’t forget that once in college the strata of the students’ capabilities changes - i.e. at a highly selective college they’re skimming just the top 10%, 5%, 1% or whatever of the HS students so some of those students who are used to being in the top 10% will now be in the bottom 10%. This can be a problem for students who managed to skate through HS without developing really good study skills once they hit college and realize the level of work and difficulty has ratcheted up.</p>