<p>I think of admissions as being on a continuum, with purely stats-based admissions at one end and holistic at the other. Generally, the lower-ranked schools are more stats-based and it gets increasingly holistic toward the top end of whatever ranking you happen to be looking at. There are always exceptions; e.g., maybe Caltech is more of a stats-based school, and I’m sure there are some lower-ranked schools where things like religion or a unique interest carry more weight. But given that there are some 3000 or so 4-year colleges, many of the lower-ranked schools just don’t have the yields to be that choosy, and may not even have the staff to support a holistic process.</p>
<p>The point at which the stats posted by the OP indicate high chance of admission- not “guaranteed” but very high likelihood- is certainly a much lower ranking than school number 21. One hundred? Two hundred? </p>