<p>You don't have to "guess" on most any of the issues you raise. There is such a thing as good data.</p>
<p>My kid chose a college that has well less than half the binge drinking rate of what had been her first-choice college (my alma mater). She spent a Thursday night overnite at the latter, and that was enough for her. And then I get e-mails all the time from parents (some on this list) who sent their kids there, knowing full well what the data said, and the kids are miserable. (Likely, I only hear from those.)</p>
<p>But what's so surprising? If you send your kid to my alma or to Duke (where my stepnephew is) or to PSU or UColorado, chances are better than 50/50 that YOUR kid has binged in the past two weeks. The chances are better than one in four that they've had at least two drinks nearly every day in the past two weeks. And the chances are roughly one in six or seven that s/he will be an alcoholic at some time in the next 20 years (if not so already.) The odds rise if your kid is white and/or male. If your kid isn't one of those, and isn't a total abstainer, it is going to be somewhat difficult to find moderate drinkers as friends. Doable, happens all the time, but it is going to be more difficult.</p>
<p>Now your kid could turn out exactly the same if s/he went elsewhere. But we have data on that question, lots of it, and can well calculate the odds.</p>