The actual paper is at https://www.pnas.org/content/118/17/e2018995118/tab-figures-data .
Not exactly. They do say that “Adherence to the Six-Foot Rule would limit large-drop transmission, and adherence to our guideline, Eq. 5, would limit long-range airborne transmission.” The paper focuses on the risks of long-range airborne transmission in indoor spaces (and how they may be mitigated by ventilation and masks), which go beyond the large droplets that the Six-Foot Rule may work against.
Hmmm… what about that Korean real life “study” of people eating in a restaurant? What really matters is air exchange, air flow, HEPA filtration, and capacity.
Oh yes. CNBC article is twisting some of the study findings.
My biggest fear from Covid, was not catching it, but my husband (or myself) dying/hospitalized from it. I am also a numbers person and I look at the cases rate in my state/county/town, ( pretty low compared to the winter surge), plus I look at the vaccine rate, and if I was to then be in the unlucky group to catch Covid after being vaccinated and exposed (which is likely 10%ish). What would happen next, and so then what are the odds that I would end up hospitalized with serious covid, and/or then die. I look at the numbers coming out of Israel. AT this point the risk is so very low to me. NOW during the winter surge and before being vaccinated I also looked at the numbers, double masked when I went out and was careful.
Its just balancing it all. Israel has about 55% of its population fully vaccinated and cases are hovering now less than 100. No more masks outdoors. and no cases are not increasing. I look at the US, and in some states over 50% have at at least their first dose. I look at my inner circle and see who is vaccinated, and its more than 50%
I am having a indoor/outdoor party next Sunday at my house. 12-15 people. All fully vaccinated. I have no problem with indoor dining now. I did before I was fully vaccinated. Its looking at my odds, versus the desire to do things I missed.
Hmmm, I don’t feel like I’m ignoring this risk.
I am fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine that is 95% effective.
I’m dining in a restaurant where the capacity is 50% and I am no closer than 6 feet away from other diners. My waitress has a mask on and really does not spend much time with us. Ordering, bringing food and drink. Each time spending 30 seconds to one minute each time. In and out, the wait staff doesn’t linger.
So let’s say there is someone who is infected in the restaurant, people who I haven’t been close to for an extended period of time.
If I was to be in contact with an infected person, 95% of that time I wouldn’t catch the virus. If I were to get the virus, most of the time it would be very, very mild or asymptotic. 1 time in a million or less, I could have a serious case of Covid.
I’ll take that less than a million chance.
When I’ve read about breakthrough Covid, what I’ve been hearing is that a spouse or a person they’ve spent a prolonged time talking face to face with. Not a random encounter for a short period of time.
I have to say that the group here is a very, very cautious one. The people I know, my mom, my in laws, friends and family who have been vaccinated, they have been dining with friends. Playing bridge, meeting with their friends, going on trips. They are wearing masks but their lives have opened back up. Which has been really good for the seniors in my life, who were really down in the past year.
I’m not even talking about those who are ignoring the pandemic.
My working assumption is that anyone who is dining indoors is vaccinated. I don’t see any kids dining indoors for example. And 66% of the adult population in my county has already had at least 1 dose, with 43% fully vaccinated. Wait staff have been eligible for vaccination for more than 2 months. So restaurant patrons aren’t “ignoring” the risks, instead they have rationally and correctly concluded that they aren’t at meaningful risk.
We have one neighbor who claims she is still “not ready” for this. Worrying for example about Burning Man being a “super spreader event” when they have already said they will require vaccination for all attendees.
Her fully vaccinated spouse absolutely is ready to get on with life. So she’s going to be left behind by the rest of us if she still isn’t ready by mid May when everyone we know except the kids will be two weeks post second dose.
@Twoin18 , I’m fully vaccinated, wife will be in 3 days. When I do curbside pickup at our local 99 or Applebee restaurants, I see masked parents walking in with unmasked kids all the time. A relative has 4 kids going to school (full in person) and both parents and 2 kids have had COVID. I think children, who are often asymptomatic, are incubators of this virus. Especially now, since most older folks who have wanted to be vaccinated received the vaccine.
Reasons I am not comfortable eating indoors:
H and I went out ballroom dancing at a decent size ballroom with only 6 or so masked couples for an hour. Then we had reservations at a restaurant nearby and I was surprised to see it was packed. The was our first experience dining in at what seemed to be a restaurant at full capacity since before the pandemic began.We eaten in a few times before, but the restaurants had seating spaced out more. We are fully vaccinated +3 weeks.
As you say, if kids are infected, they are often asymptomatic. More importantly they hardly ever suffer serious consequences, and far more kids die from flu than COVID. If “most older folks” have received the vaccine, then those vaccinated people, who might have suffered serious consequences pre-vaccination, now shouldn’t need to worry.
It seems to me that a lot of people still have their “pre-vaccination goggles” on when observing particular social situations (ie when they see others without masks, eating out, socializing etc). I get it, the adjustment is hard to see people walking round our neighborhood without masks, neighbors having parties etc, which is a big change from a month ago. But I then need to remind myself that once you are vaccinated, you are safe.
I’m not seeing this supported TBH. This is the pediatric Covid deaths from roughly one year of seeing the disease:
At least 297 children have died of COVID-19, about 0.06% of all deaths.
https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/04/19/pediatric-covid-cases-041921
This is the flu death rate for '19-'20 (pre-Covid so shut downs didn’t affect it):
CDC today reported one new seasonal flu-related death in a child that occurred during the 2019-2020 season, bringing the total number of flu deaths in children reported to CDC for last season to 188. This matches the highest recorded number for pediatric flu deaths reported during a regular flu season, which occurred during the 2017-2018 flu season.
Flu deaths in children have been nationally reportable since 2004. Since that time, flu-related deaths in children reported to CDC during regular flu seasons have ranged from 37 to 188 deaths.
Only in the H1N1 flu season does it seem to have been worse for numbers:
during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, from April 2009 to September 2010, 358 flu deaths in children were reported to CDC.
BUT, my guess is more kids had the flu than Covid due to the shut downs, so percentage-wise, I’m not sure it was really more even that year.
Sure it’s the news job to give out numbers but a good news source would help with interpretation–that’s the investigative part that rarely seems to happen. Instead you need to do your own research and find more reliable sources than any “news” source.
11K infected after full vaccination. Oh No! We’re all gonna die! I need my mask forever!
Never answered: Out of how many people fully vaccinated? Is that actually a high number or totally expected? What symptoms of infection? Was it variants? Any deaths (or did the vac work?). Any follow-ups planned? A number no matter how factual does not tell a story without context.
And they aren’t great at advertising the changes in CDC recs. Outdoor spacing to 3 ft, not 6.
No need to alcohol wipe anything–counters at the store, nothing. They’ve determined the virus isn’t spread that way. Pretty sure that the vaccinated do NOT spread the virus to others (but cautious still)
They say the vac “might only last 6 months” not because they think that but the fact that is all the real data they have right now. Nope, the media is doom and gloom.
The news sources I use answered all of those. In the US that’s generally NBC and ABC plus their affiliates. For World News we tend to use BBC.
The local newspaper I receive also totally addressed it all putting the 11K and CDC changes in perspective and pointing out the relative safety of it all compared to before.
If I see pure gloom and doom now it’s regarding India after their massive celebrations and spread or Brazil where some Powers That Be never took it seriously.
I guess I’m not sure why the CDC is listing dining out as high risk when we are not hearing of widespread spread due to dining. At least I’m not hearing that.
When you hear of a restaurant having a positive case, is it from the restaurant or from a contact in their personal life? In my husband’s workplace, (not a restaurant) it’s been from a personal contact and not from the workplace.
The CDC has been very slow and very cautious about updating their recommendations for vaccinated people.
If people don’t want to dine out, that’s perfectly fine with me. Not knocking people who want to wait but when I looked at the math and the science, dining out looked like it was a low risk situation. After I was vaccinated.
Bars and restaurants are the #1 place to catch it on lists I’ve seen. I did a quick google search and came up with this from Reader’s Digest. There are others, this was just the most recent article (since news changes often):
The number one hot spot for coronavirus infections right now is the bar and restaurant scene, according to Dr. Lushniak. “Unfortunately, as bars have reopened, we have seen a large number of young people gathering but not necessarily being wary that COVID-19 is still a problem,” he says. The data backs him up: A recent study found that adults who tested positive for COVID-19 were twice as likely to have dined at a restaurant than those who tested negative.
A Golden Corral is where my aunt/uncle likely caught it. She survived, he didn’t. Going out to eat (daily) and grocery shopping were the only outside things they did. The Golden Corral is where they knew a lady walking by them was coughing maskless.
that was back in Oct, the question is how risky is dining when vaccinated. I guess that is something we wont know for a while.
I think anything while vaccinated is less risky, but I doubt the “most risky” places change.
When I think back to where our kids (or us) were most likely to catch a cold, it was church, school, or any indoor place where we spent a bit of time and someone was sick. The air doesn’t often circulate well indoors and artificial heat/AC dries it out which can make our airways more susceptible to things.
The relative risk of indoor dining versus other activities (outdoor dining, grocery shopping, etc.) should be similar. However, you having gotten vaccinated substantially reduces your risk for all of these activities, to the point that even the higher risk activities like indoor dining may be low enough risk to be acceptable to many people. Also, if a greater percentage of other people get vaccinated, that reduces your risk even more.
I personally think that bars are different than sitting in a restaurant with your partner or other vaccinated friends.
I am totally happy with whatever anyone decides to do. I’ve made my decision and I am very happy with it.
Also in my opinion when it is stated that an adult who tested positive for the virus is twice as likely to have dined in a restaurant (in October before there was a vaccine) means to me that they are people who are more likely to engage in riskier behavior than people who didn’t dine in restaurants.
Most of my fully vaccinated relatives are happily dining indoors in restaurants. We did once when we were fully vaccinated and saw that we were among the only 10 people in large restaurant with good spacing.
Haven’t done indoor dining since. Not sure when we may resume it—searching outdoor dining spaces these days instead.
I was thinking you meant risky in general vs risky for those who have been vaccinated. Being vaccinated should lower the risk everywhere one wants to go.