But will there be full-time jobs with benefits that they can support a family on? Or will those same states pushing to do away with tenure opt to save money and eventually replace those positions with adjuncts? Adjuncts make $800/credit hour where I am…and I am seeing A LOT of tenure lines cut for budget reasons right now (which is easy to do with so much turnover in the field over the past few years) and more part-time adjuncts hired rather than full-time lecturer positions replacing them. My concern when states push to take away tenure is it just makes it that much easier to end up with poorly paid adjuncts who are just part-time and running from school to school or to other jobs in between classes rather than being immersed in the campus community and available to students outside of the classroom.
There hasnt been much of an assault on tenure yet but everywhere is awash in adjuncts. Not sure the issues are related.
Sure, not yet, but you named Texas and Florida, both states where that issue is being
debated right now. It’s an important consideration to keep in mind when people advocate for tenure policy changes.
Those states have substantial population growth , thus likely more jobs.
I have seen nothing indicating they have more adjuncts than any other state. Some remarkably high percentage of faculty positions nationwide are adjuncts already.
Edited to add: Actually, i looked it up after I posted. Almost 75% of faculty positions are now adjuncts nationwide. Only 11% of adjuncts have phd degtrees, which surprised me.
I agree with you that those states are poised for a lot of growth in higher ed. The 75 percent figure includes part-time and full-time positions. What I am questioning is if further eroding tenure-track lines more than has already been done will lead to more part-time positions (as opposed to seeing those tenure lines replaced with full-time lecturer positions) as a money-saving method. Full-time, renewable contracts aren’t ideal by any means for academics, but at least they are salaried and have benefits. The rise of part-time positions where adjuncts are limited in the number of classes they can teach per school is where you really see education quality suffer.
The adjustment is already happening, but not in the way people think. Many of us in the Academy discourage students from pursuing advanced degrees in all but a few disciplines. For the past 15 years, there has been a noted push to reduce the number of individuals pursuing doctorates (STEM is the exception). Even when I have students that are passionate about their choice to pursue a PhD, I still detail the cold hard reality they will face. I want them to fully understand the road they are taking. The job market for tenure and tenure track positions has been poor for well over a decade. As already noted, adjunct positions are far more abundant. The demographic cliff will only make it worse. The real decision comes before even beginning (or completing) a PhD.
Well, I’m heartened that adjuncts are banding together. Use of poorly paid adjuncts to avoid paying a living wage is a crime, I think. I have a friend who teaches at a top 50 lac, gets $3k a semester for I’m not sure, maybe two classes, maybe one. That’s a crappy way to live. And my friend was given an entirely different enticement to move to the area; it was only later that it was discovered it would not be a full-fledged salaried position.
Not sure it’ll change things on this thread topic, but that is a dynamic that needs to change nationwide. Maybe unis can cut out a layer of admin and solve the issue.
Given the typically slow rate of faculty turnover and the highly competitive nature of (non-adjunct) faculty job openings (i.e. dissatisfied faculty are not likely to be able to move quickly even if they are not limited by spouse and family considerations), any effect on patterns of job preference among faculty is likely to take years or decades to observe.
Anecdotally, I know three (3) young (mid-20’s) newly-hired professors with PhD’s. One is currently employed with Stanford, one just left to take a job in CO and the newest PhD is going to teach in NY.
So, not all the professor jobs are in/moving to TX and FL. 
Of course not. They are moving to where they receive job offers. And while anecdotes are fun, they do not constitute data. Given population trends, future jobs in academia are more likely to be in areas with population growth than those with sharply declining numbers of students. And given the oversupply of those looking for such jobs compared to the openings, prospective faculty arent likely to be receiving many offers and won’t have a lot of choice.
The trend has been that fewer students are going to college and also that the college-aged population is expected to decline dramatically in future years, so just because humans are moving to FL and TX, rather than NY and CA, as examples, doesn’t necessarily mean more jobs for professors in the South, where there’s population growth.
Unless most of net-positive movement to the South is amongst young couples of child bearing age, who actually remain in the South for their kid’s schooling years.
I wasn’t referring to intra-country transfers. Both Florida and Texas have large Hispanic populations which are comparatively young and have slightly higher birth rates. Both also experience an influx of migrants from outside the US who are overwhelmingly young. The relatively lower cost of living contributes to larger family sizes. The school-age population is expanding in both much more than in other states.
Many of those little kids will grow up and attend college. Both states offer very affordable college options which lure many students to remain in-state.
According to the Pew Research Center, dated 8/2020:
Seems like immigrants are going to a lot of locations within the US.
Actually, we do not need to speculate-a state government agency analyzed Texas higher ed trends for 2021-2035. I will see if I can link it. In a nutshell, public 4 year enrollment is expected to increase from 662k to 800k while private enrollment remains stable at around 126k. Presumably other states have similar agencies which conduct their own studies.
Found the link:
A 15-year study, out to 2035, is speculation. And when I hear “TX higher ed,” I think Gov. Greg Abbott. So, not much faith here in that study. BTW, link doesn’t work.
Well, the link works fine for me ( the report takes quite a few seconds to load). And the report notes it was revised downward during covid, and that its assumptions might change. I expect many states do similar projections, in part to determine state levels of funding and building. The number of 5 year olds today is relevant to the number of college students in 2035.
I do not like Gov. Abbott, but I do not let my personal bias interfer with my understanding of the state of higher education in Texas. I may not agree with the governors of Florida or Georgia, but the funding those states provide to their own college students is very effective. The data is what it is, regardless of your political position.
And regardless of your disdain for Texas higher education, its flagship is well regarded with very highly rated computer science, engineering and business programs very affordable to its state residents. That school, and other public universities, are popular and have good nationwide job placement. So spare me the contempt. I didnt take advantage of Texas public universities for my kids, but I am delighted so many others do so.
With a number of assumptions about the future, which may or may not be valid. Or ever become fact.
“Data” are “facts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis.” Data, to me, is not projections, estimates and/or forecasts. But they could be pure BS. Also projections can be politically influenced and I wouldn’t out it past Gov. Abbott to twist projections to his advantage. That’s who he is.
I have no disdain for Texas higher education, but I do have is plenty of disdain for projections, forecasts, polls, etc. and also the Texas political establishment.
This sounds like a personal attack, which is against ToS.
I got the link to work.
So, basically BS. 
So then maybe the whole demographic cliff fear is BS too, right?
Glad you managed to click on the link.
Still waiting for any data on the OP topic, departures from U Florida faculty.