<p>cujoe -
unless the schools are in cahoots (always possible) they are independant, at least for approximation's sake - and that is all this is. What I am not doing is adjusting the probabilities to the individual student (and his or her application). In that case, probability of rejection will be higher for a BWRK, unhooked kid looking for financial aid - relative to that of a legacy recruited althlete that won a beauty contest (all other things being equal). Likewise, a student will all stats in the upper quarter will have a better chance - unless he or she is from a region that heavily applies to a school that wants geographical diversity.</p>
<p>I'm also not adjusting the probabilities to match - safety - reach. If you think your essays and rec's are wonderful - and they are really not - your assessments are all off, especially at the random schools. </p>
<p>Ali G's list is really pretty reasonable, and will likely yield multiple acceptances. But it could be a lot safer without that much extra time or expense. And it the safety is also a financial safety, that end of things is also covered.</p>