Harvard and National Merit Scholars

Colleges and Universities A-Z Harvard University
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<p>The National Merit Scholarship Corporation has recently released its annual report. An interesting section of that report includes information on the enrollment selections of the 2005 entering class of NMSC scholarship winners. Combining this data with that collected by the Chronicle of Higher Education from previous years’ NMSC annual reports gives us some insight into recent trends.</p>

<p>To me, the most striking thing is the decline over the past three years in the number of NMS winners enrolling at Harvard. There was a day when Harvard enrolled more Merit Scholars than did Yale and Princeton combined. Indeed, that “day” extended from 1995 through 2002. Year in, year out, close to 25% of Harvard’s enrolling freshmen had earned this distinction. With the exception of (very small) Caltech, no school came close to challenging Harvard on this measure. Stanford, Yale, and Princeton were perennially in the low to mid-teens. </p>

<p>Harvard has been justifiably proud of its showing in this area. In his official annual Dean’s report in for 2001, Dean Harry Lewis cited Harvard’s achievement of enrolling 382 Merit Scholars who entered in fall of 2000. </p>

<p>But something has changed over the last three years. The most recent data show Yale pulling even with Harvard – both at 17.5%. Some of this is due to Yale’s improving numbers, but it seems to be more fully explained by Harvard’s falling numbers.</p>

<p>One wonders what is going on. Why have Harvard’s numbers been falling over the last three years?</p>

<p>Is it the result of bad press for Harvard during the Summers turmoil ?</p>

<p>Is it due to changes in admissions priorities? Is Harvard looking for a different kind of student?</p>

<p>Is Byerly Hall doing something differently? Not doing something differently?</p>

<p>What?</p>

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<p>Other noteworthy changes:</p>

<p>Columbia seems to have done extremely well -- jumping from 41 to 71 Merit Scholars in a single year.</p>

<p>Penn wins the overall improvement award in this event. In 1995, Penn enrolled 30 Merit Scholars. By 2005, it had risen to 101.</p>

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<p>2002-2005 National Merit Scholar matriculation data</p>

<p>School: 2002 2003 2004 2005 (2004–2005 change) – estimated 2005 percentage of class </p>

<p>Harvard: 396 378 312 287 (-25) – 17.5%</p>

<p>Yale: 180 228 224 232 (+8) – 17.5%</p>

<p>Princeton: 149 165 192 180 (-12) – 14.7%</p>

<p>MIT: 139 151 134 131 (-3) – 12.2%</p>

<p>Stanford: 223 217 217 194 (-23) – 11.9%</p>

<p>Duke: 98 103 90 117 (+27) – 7.0%</p>

<p>Dartmouth: 50 45 47 64 (+17) – 6.0%</p>

<p>Columbia: 50 47 41 71 (+30) – 5.3%</p>

<p>Brown: 65 47 57 62 (+5) – 4.3%</p>

<p>Penn: 87 101 91 101 (+10) – 4.1%</p>

<p>Cornell: 42 38 42 35 (-7) – 1.1%</p>

<p>Sources: COHE, NMSC</p>

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<p>Well I certainly wasn't a semifinalist... I think perhaps the trend is a result of H focusing less on numbers in admissions since they get so many qualified applicants already, which is a good thing in my opinion.</p>

<p>But who really knows?</p>

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<p>I think people reach a point where scores don't matter as much anymore. If you are past that point they look more to your character traits or the things you've taken part in. Or, maybe the admissions people were looking more at something else rather than test scores.</p>

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<p>What counts as "Scholar"? Semi-finalist or higher?</p>

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<p>Do the PSATs really matter, anyway?</p>

<p>It's a fake, practice SAT which will probably not earn you much of a scholarship anyway (and you'd likely have high enough SAT scores and grades to get the scholarship regardless). The only use I can really see is getting used to standardized testing for kids who didn't take the 7th/8th grade SAT and/or who don't have standardized testing at their schools.</p>

<p>...Was that too harsh?</p>

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<p>The PSAT doesn't really matter... I did pretty crappy on it in comparison to my SAT Reasoning... but actually, my father couldn't get me a scholarship through his employer because I wasn't a semifinalist.</p>

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<p>i'm an sf, and i hate reading all these harvard is dying! commentaries. this is just like what happened after no one was a rhodes scholar (cue the mass hysteria). i'm also sick of hearing from all my friends that everyone there is competitive, snooty, a loser or all three. i know the token answer is oh, its just jealousy...but its frustrating to keep receiving these overwhelmingly negative reactions...anyone else know what i mean? sorry to hijack this thread, in advance.</p>

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<p>I totally know what you mean. It's as if a "better" school is considered to be worse. It's kinda like where I live, which happens to have some really rich people living here. But in reality, there are lots of just middleclass average people. The school district here is supposed to be good, and just because there are SOME rich people everyone is considered to be a snob. But I was one of the mass of people at first who thought the people at Harvard would be annoying suck-up people, but from everyone who has been there I hear it's a nice place.</p>

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<p>This was not intended to be a "Harvard is dying" thread. It's not dying, even in this context. Harvard still enrolls more NMS winners than any school in the country and is among the top few in terms of percentage of Scholars enrolled. But when 1995 -> 2005 trend goes like this: 368 391 340 370 394 382 360 396 378 then 312 then 287, we have a curious phenomenon and the mind seeks an explanation.</p>

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<p>i understand that. i'm not arguing over this thread in particular, just venting over a particular attitude surrounding the school.</p>

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<p>The 800-scorers and valedictorians in the app group were as numerous as ever, so that the class could have been filled twice over from either pool. The yield rate also set a recent high last year, which says they are getting as big a share as ever of those they choose to admit.</p>

<p>I suspect it has something to do with changing demographics - ie, a serious effort to attain greater economic diversity that necessarily means looking beyond SAT scores. Still the most NMS winners, perhaps, but no effort to maximize that number at the expense of the larger goal. The NMSC is also striving itself, of course, with mixed results, to "diversify" its winner group. (See the Report linked below)</p>

<p>There is, within the Admissions Office, great focus (one might even say obsessive focus!) on the coming demographic changes in the population. The fraction of the college-age group that is white will be less than 50% before long.</p>

<p>Within 4-5 years, the size of the college-age group will flatten or decline in absolute numbers, but that masks a steeper decline in potential non-minority applicants. Hispanic students will be growing geometrically.</p>

<p>Further, all growth in the college-eligible pool will be in the lowest economic quadrant.</p>

<p>Elite colleges are going to have to drastically change their recruiting methods, and raise vast sums for financial aid, if they still want to place their "brand" on "tomorrow's leaders" in a nation that will be startlingly different, demographically a generation from now.</p>

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<p>I am not sure about the value of NM Scholars as opposed to finalists. My S qualified for NM finalist status but did not make it to NM Scholar. Possible explanation? The nine courses he took at Harvard in lieu of high school courses. No matter how well he did in them, they counted Pass/Fail. The high school courses he took, by contrast, were easier, not just because of the level they were being taught at, but because of the subject matter (required arts electives, for example)</p>

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<p>I think that Harvard traditionally has used PSAT scores for recruitment. They send a letter asking the highest scorers -- the likeliest to be NMS winners -- to apply. In their admissions material they refer to what percentage of their list was admitted. (I'm not saying PSAT scores are the only way to get on this Spring list, as I don't know.) But, they have put more emphasis on PSAT scores than other colleges and that may be changing.</p>

<p>I do agree that they are broadening their net, especially looking for more socioeconomic diversity. But it may also be possible that not as many NMS winners are applying for a variety of reasons, including the merit scholarship money and honors programs with all kinds of privileges being offered by an increasing number of other schools. The actual NMS scholarship is minimal. For middle, even some upper middle, class students who do not qualify for financial aid --yet whose parents have to stretch to make Harvard tuition possible -- colleges that offer full rides or substantial grants to NMS scholars regardless of family income are alluring. Even those that do not offer merit aid may offer honors programs with special research opportunities, faculty contact, smaller classes, or other enrichment. </p>

<p>Anyway, more proof that students seeking to be among the brightest (or at least the best standardized test takers) will not find them all at Harvard. The two NMS scholars at my kid's school in 2004 chose Columbia and Brown.</p>

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<p>Marite -- Maybe he didn't send in the essay?:)
Anyway, things seem to have turned out all right for him, and I suspect the tradeoff -- taking the nine Harvard courses -- was the right decision.</p>

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<p>If it cost you a chance for a scholarship, then I guess the PSAT really does matter.</p>

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<p>Sac:</p>

<p>He did send in the essay. My point was that Harvard, when looking at his app, saw there was more to it than NM Scholar. Advanced college math classes must have looked far more impressive than mastering trig for the PSAT. I'm sure there are many others like him out there, or even more impressive. It's been a humbling and very welcome experience for him to find out more about some of his dormmates and classmates. NMS scholar status is nowhere near there in terms of achievements.</p>

<p>After all these years of living in the US, I am still amazed at the importance attached to tests taken in 10th or 11th grades.</p>

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<p>"I am not sure about the value of NM Scholars as opposed to finalists."</p>

<p>There is no difference for college admission purposes. Harvard announces its RD admissions decisions well before NMSC announces its selections. So the value to the student is simply the award (usually $2500) and the honor.</p>

<p>But where these students choose to go to school is useful information for those who take an interest in elite college admissions. The NMS selection process is not a single-shot PSAT event. It begins with that test, but it is much more comprehensive than that. It also involves SAT scores, grades, ECs, essay, recommendation, etc. It's roughly equivalent to the process for applying to yet another college. As such, identifying what colleges members of this reasonably select group choose to attend can be instructive. Some would argue that the fraction of NMS winners in a given school's entering freshman class is a pretty good reflection of the academic strength of that class.</p>

<p>Over past many years, Harvard and Caltech have dominated this "competition." To my knowledge, only six schools have ever had more than 10% of their entering freshman classes comprised of Merit Scholars: Harvard, Caltech, Yale, MIT, Princeton, and Stanford. And for the past decade at least, these six -- clearly the top six schools in the country, in my view, -- have <em>always</em> been above the 10% level.</p>

<p>So even if being an NM Scholar is not earth-shattering at the individual level, in the aggregate this data can be useful for making estimates about overall student body strength. And it is a curious thing when Harvard exhibits a substantial shift.</p>

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<p>Okay. So the appropriate numbers to look at are not the NM Scholars but the NM Finalists. But the data provided in the original post seem to focus on Scholars--a much smaller group than the Finalists, and as my S's own profile might suggest, not necessarily better qualified.</p>

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<p>To my knowledge, NMSC does not keep records on where finalists go to college.</p>

<p>Unfortunate, to say the least.</p>

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<p>In that case, can one draw any conclusion from the data provided as to the shift in Harvard's pool of applicants and/or admittees? I would venture not. I have no idea why some finalists make NM Scholars and others do not.</p>

<p>Another issue to bear in mind is that not all Finalists, and hence scholars, are created equal. The qualifying score differs from state to state.</p>