Harvard--Had No Idea Things Were This Bad

<p>Yes… I would be troubled by that. If a school the size of Yale cannot find sufficiently good looking people who can also sing, that’s pretty messed up. And to actually hire an actor when you have a campus full of supposed talent? That seems ridiculous. Of course, at this point that is hearsay. can you point to a link where this is confirmed in some way? </p>

<p>I know a very pompous family with a kid at Yale. This would be a perfect passive aggressive dig when it is sure to be thrown in our faces how brilliant her kid obviously is, again. I know I know. Not the best of intentions, but at least I admit it! :)</p>

<p>[Yale</a> Daily News - Media -](<a href=“http://www.yaledailynews.com/media/2010/01/22/admissions-video-shines-graphic/]Yale”>http://www.yaledailynews.com/media/2010/01/22/admissions-video-shines-graphic/)</p>

<p>To be fair, Kobi Libbii (#16), who plays the admissions dean is a Yale alum, Class of `07. But, future theater-goers should also be aware that his singing voice was – apparently – dubbed by Matt Kroom (letter B) a current undergrad.</p>

<p>I’m sensing that the current attitude toward the endowment crises by the major endowment schools is the basic kick the can down the road approach. There is still very little liquidity and still questionable valuations but rather than take the moves necessary to improve liquidity or limit the draw from the endowment its lets keep borrowing and get deeper in debt and other than cutting back on capital spending its business as usual. It’s going to be interesting to see how this story unfolds.</p>

<p>The people running these endowments are not that different from homeowners.</p>

<p>The homeowners lived a lifestyle that could not be supported by income alone. So they borrowed against theirs assets, instead of selling their assets or cutting expenses. Homeowners just borrowed more and more until the time came when the assets and income couldn’t cover the debt load anymore.</p>

<p>It could end up that way with these endowment guys. They spend more than comes in…they used to spend part of the endowment. Now they borrow off the endowment too. Endowment declines but the debt is still there. That would be ugly.</p>

<p>Homeowners expected home prices would grow to the sky. Endowment managers thought their endowments would grow to the sky. The difference is endowment managers usually have higher incomes than homeowners.</p>

<p>What are some worst case scenarios? Could a large foreign power “buy” into any of these schools?
What are some probable scenarios?</p>

<p>^^[1](<a href=“http://www.rutgers.edu/about-rutgers/rutgers-history]Rutgers”>http://www.rutgers.edu/about-rutgers/rutgers-history)</p>


  1. Rutgers</a> History | Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey ↩︎

<p>[Princeton</a> University - Trustees approve low fee increase, boost financial aid despite budget challenges](<a href=“http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S26/44/29Q45/index.xml?section=topstories]Princeton”>http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S26/44/29Q45/index.xml?section=topstories)</p>

<p>At Princeton they mention that they have a 2year plan to reduce expenses by $170M but if you look at their expense budgets:
2008A 1,051M
2009A 1,162M
2011P 1,360M
its hard to see where they are tightening their belts.</p>

<p>Colleges and Universities do not sell stock in their “company” so unless I am missing something, I dont see how anyone can buy into a college in order to wrestle control, foreign or domestic.</p>

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</p>

<p>SOME homeowners… not all homeowners behaved irresponsibly… many live(ed) within their means and did not play the games you speak of… although yes some did and are now screwed (some didn’t and are now also screwed… those ones I do feel sorry for… the rest that got themselves into trouble I have no sympathy for) </p>

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<p>I can’t really forsee school Trustees selling equity in the school, but for those schools that rely on endowment money as a significant source of primary operational funding then they’ll be in for a world of pain if they can’t get these issues sorted out. They would mostly just have to slash expenditure: capital projects would be cut, salaries frozen, tuition up and grants down… in short, whatever they need to do to balance the budget. </p>

<p>Although several schools are in significant financial pain at the moment, I don’t think they’re at this doomsday stage yet… but depending on how bad the situation really is with how these endowments were managed it’s not impossible that some could find themselves in such a scenario.</p>

<p>It can’t be said enough… it all boils down to liquidity. When some of these schools were boasting to alumni about the “size” of their endowment nobody was asking the right questions… namely “great so we have something that on paper someone has calculated to be worth X, but how much stable cash can this piece of paper generate for us year in and year out?” In some cases the answer to that question is actually “ummm… well… actually if we mess up not only will it not generate any cash, but we’ll have to pump cash into it… cash that at that stage we probably won’t have.” </p>

<p>Last year when the market tanked imagine if your 401k manager not only sent you a statement telling you how much of your money they lost, but also said “per the terms of our agreement I now need you to send me more cash, since we kind of ran out, so please kindly send your check to:” That’s the situation facing some of these schools now.</p>

<p>I agree with Rocketman. If these tier 3 assets are worth what they say they are and the general partners start sending money to the endowments then I think it won’t be a disaster. But if that doesn’t happen then I think it could get pretty serious. I could see where you have as much in debt as you have in the endowment in which case all the endowment is doing is paying interest on debt. That’s a worse case scenario but not impossible the way they are issuing debt now.</p>

<p>Is a developmental admit not akin to buying stock? Just a different asset added to one’s portfolio in my book.</p>

<p>One final comment about Princeton’s financials. Fully 2/3rd of tuition money is given back in scholarships. They are amazingly generous. The other thing that stuck out is that in 2009 58% of their operating revenue came from the endowment and it looks like they are headed to 66%. They are incredibly dependent on their endowment-much more than any other school.</p>

<p><a href=“Businessweek - Bloomberg”>Businessweek - Bloomberg;

<p>Latest ranking of endowments is out. Would like to see rankings net of debt though.</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.businessweek.com/bschools/content/jan2010/bs20100127_360651.htm[/url]”>Businessweek - Bloomberg;

<p>The unfortunate side effect here is that everyone lost pretty much the same amounts, relative to their competition. Unless someone falls out of the T6, there’s no real incentive to change the way they were doing things. That means, revisiting these same issues every ten years or so or whenever the next bubble bursts, with great disruption to the lives of workers who lose their jobs and to surrounding communities who must contend with abandoned construction sites where stable, small businesses may have once stood - all because spending patterns in higher ed are tied more than ever to the imaginary ability to time the markets.</p>

<p>[University</a> Debt Jumped 54% as Endowments Tumbled in Fiscal 2009 - Bloomberg.com](<a href=“Bloomberg Politics - Bloomberg”>Bloomberg Politics - Bloomberg)</p>

<p>"U.S. universities boosted their long-term debt by 54 percent in the year ended June 30, as the economic crisis forced them to borrow to offset record losses in their endowments.</p>

<p>Universities, on average, had $167.8 million in debt in the 12 months ended June 30, with the biggest borrowing done by endowments with more than $1 billion in assets, according to a study released today by the National Association of College and University Business Officers and Commonfund, in Wilton, Connecticut. The money was used to build up emergency cash, refinance existing loans, and fund campus expansions. The study included debt for the first time this year.</p>

<p>Harvard University and Princeton University were among the U.S. colleges to sell bonds as the credit crisis forced universities to borrow to replace variable-rate bonds investors no longer wanted and offset drops in their endowments caused by illiquid investments.</p>

<p>“The wealthier schools are clearly going to stay in business – they have management and budget challenges that are more difficult than they’re used to,” as debt has risen, said John Nelson, a managing director who studies higher education and not-for- profits at Moody’s Investors Service in New York. “It forces them to be more efficient and make some more difficult budget decisions on the number of staff they have, the amount of salary increases and the scope of capital expansions.” </p>

<p>"Last year, only fixed income and short-term securities and cash generated gains, of 3 percent and 0.8 percent respectively, the study showed. International equities were the worst- performing asset class, losing 28 percent, followed by U.S. stock declines of 26 percent, while alternative strategies dropped 18 percent.</p>

<p>Funds with more than $1 billion in assets, of which 61 percent was allocated to alternative strategies, lost the most last year, with 21 percent average declines, according to the report. Endowments of less than $25 million had the smallest losses, an average of 17 percent, as they benefited from owning more bonds and U.S. stocks and fewer hedge funds and less private equity, according to the research.</p>

<p>Endowments gained an average of 4 percent annually in the decade ended June 30, with the largest funds of more than $1 billion performing the best, the study shows. Those funds jumped by 6.1 percent each year, while their smaller peers had average increases of 3.4 percent to 4.3 percent each year. "</p>

<p>[College</a> Endowments In Jeopardy - Forbes.com](<a href=“http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/27/college-endowment-performance-personal-finance-best-endowments.html]College”>College Endowments In Jeopardy)</p>

<p>Of the colleges/universities starting the year with endowments of at least $400 million, here’s the ranking from biggest percentage decline to smallest. Remember, these declines include investment loses and spending distributions offset by gifts. I think we should call this the “Swenson needs to tout his own horn on more TV shows” index:</p>

<p>


-35.5%    Haverford College PA
-33.2%  Syracuse University NY
-33.0%  Baylor College of Medicine TX
-30.0%  Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering MA
-29.8%  Harvard University MA
-29.4%  Carnegie Mellon University PA
-29.1%  The Fuller Foundation CA
-28.6%  Yale University CT
-28.2%  The Florida State University Foundation FL
-28.0%  The Principia Corporation MO
-27.9%  University System of Maryland & Foundations MD
-27.7%  University of Minnesota MN
-27.7%  Oberlin College OH
-27.5%  Duke University NC
-27.4%  University of Arkansas and Foundation AR
-27.2%  Reed College OR
-27.2%  West Virginia University Foundation, Inc. WV
-27.2%  Yeshiva University NY
-27.1%  Hamilton College NY
-26.9%  Wesleyan University CT
-26.9%  Grinnell College IA
-26.8%  University of Miami FL
-26.7%  Stanford University CA
-26.6%  Saint Louis University MO
-26.6%  Brown University RI
-26.4%  University of Illinois and Foundation IL
-26.4%  Davidson College NC
-26.4%  Cornell University NY
-26.3%  Southern Methodist University TX
-26.3%  Oklahoma State University and Foundation OK
-26.1%  California Institute of Technology CA
-26.0%  Northeastern University MA
-25.9%  University of Houston System and Foundation TX
-25.9%  Georgia Tech Foundation, Inc. GA
-25.8%  Princeton Theological Seminary NJ
-25.7%  Pomona College CA
-25.6%  University of Southern California CA
-25.5%  Drexel University PA
-25.1%  The University of Tennessee TN
-24.8%  Northwestern University IL
-24.8%  University of Texas System TX
-24.8%  Carnegie Institute of Washington DC
-24.8%  University of Delaware DE
-24.5%  Colby College ME
-24.5%  Trustees of Mount Holyoke College MA
-24.3%  The Rockefeller University NY
-24.3%  Claremont McKenna College CA
-24.2%  University of Cincinnati OH
-24.0%  Fordham University NY
-24.0%  University of Rochester NY
-23.9%  Denison University OH
-23.8%  Tulane University LA
-23.7%  Washington University in St. Louis MO
-23.7%  University of Washington WA
-23.7%  Tufts University MA
-23.7%  The Texas A&M University System & Foundation TX
-23.4%  Amherst College MA
-23.4%  University of Louisville Foundation KY
-23.3%  University of Kentucky KY
-23.3%  University of Tulsa OK
-23.2%  University of Toronto ON
-23.2%  University of Chicago IL
-23.2%  Oregon State University Foundation OR
-23.1%  Louisiana State University System LA
-23.0%  The University of Georgia Foundation GA
-23.0%  University of Notre Dame IN
-22.8%  Princeton University NJ
-22.8%  Trustees of Dartmouth College NH
-22.8%  Wake Forest University NC
-22.8%  Trinity College (Connecticut) CT
-22.8%  Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute NY
-22.7%  University of Virginia VA
-22.7%  Berea College KY
-22.4%  Vassar College NY
-22.4%  Loma Linda University CA
-22.1%  Boston University MA
-22.1%  Williams College MA
-21.9%  Miami University OH
-21.9%  DePauw University IN
-21.8%  Santa Clara University CA
-21.7%  University of Mississippi and Foundation MS
-21.7%  Johns Hopkins University MD
-21.6%  Rice University TX
-21.6%  Brandeis University MA
-21.6%  Kansas University Endowment Association KS
-21.5%  Lafayette College PA
-21.4%  Clemson University and Foundation SC
-21.4%  Wellesley College MA
-21.4%  Bryn Mawr College PA
-21.4%  Lehigh University PA
-21.3%  University of Pittsburgh PA
-21.0%  University of Nebraska NE
-21.0%  Middlebury College VT
-20.9%  Emory University GA
-20.9%  University of Wisconsin Foundation WI
-20.9%  Rochester Institute of Technology NY
-20.7%  University of Michigan MI
-20.7%  University of Minnesota Foundation MN
-20.7%  Indiana University and Foundation IN
-20.7%  Medical College of Wisconsin WI
-20.7%  Furman University SC
-20.7%  College of the Holy Cross MA
-20.7%  Pennsylvania State University PA
-20.6%  Case Western Reserve University OH
-20.6%  University of California CA
-20.4%  The Ohio State University OH
-20.3%  Colgate University NY
-20.2%  Texas Christian University TX
-20.2%  The University of Alabama System AL
-20.2%  Bucknell University PA
-20.1%  Carleton College MN
-20.1%  Swarthmore College PA
-19.9%  Auburn University and Foundation AL
-19.8%  Columbia University NY
-19.7%  Smith College MA
-19.5%  University of Oklahoma OK
-19.3%  Iowa State University and Foundation IA
-19.2%  University of Florida Foundation, Inc. FL
-19.0%  University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill & Foundations NC
-18.9%  Vanderbilt University TN
-18.8%  Howard University DC
-18.7%  The Colorado College CO
-18.3%  Michigan State University MI
-18.1%  University of Iowa and Foundation IA
-18.0%  Texas A&M Foundation TX
-17.9%  Macalester College MN
-17.9%  University of Oregon and Foundation OR
-17.8%  Trustees of Boston College MA
-17.8%  Trinity University TX
-17.7%  University of Colorado Foundation CO
-17.7%  Baylor University TX
-17.3%  Arizona State University and Foundation AZ
-17.2%  Bowdoin College ME
-17.0%  Rush University Medical Center IL
-16.8%  University of Richmond VA
-16.8%  Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania PA
-16.6%  Georgetown University DC
-16.3%  University of California, Berkeley Foundation CA
-16.0%  Purdue University IN
-15.8%  University of Arizona and Foundation AZ
-15.4%  New York University NY
-15.1%  The UCLA Foundation CA
-14.8%  North Carolina State University and Related Foundations NC
-14.8%  Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey NJ
-14.7%  College of William & Mary and Foundations VA
-14.4%  Virginia Tech Foundation VA
-14.2%  Texas Tech University System TX
-14.0%  University of Missouri System MO
-13.8%  Berry College GA
-13.7%  University of Utah UT
-12.6%  Washington & Lee University VA
-12.5%  McGill University QC
-11.7%  University of Alberta AB
-8.7%   Washington State University WA
-7.9%   University of South Carolina and Affiliated Foundations SC
-6.4%   University of California San Francisco Foundation CA
-3.8%   Pepperdine University CA 

</p>

<p>Those numbers do not include the amount of debt raised much of which went to make capital calls that added to the value of the endowments. If you added those back in Harvard, Yale and Princetons numbers in particular would have been even worse.</p>

<p>Correct. The taxable debt to cover cash needs really should be subtracted from endowments for a fair comparison. The interest rate on these taxable bonds (for Amherst, a AAa rated school), is 5.875%.</p>

<p>I had to laught at Vanderbilt being one of Forbes “winners” in their article. Vanderbilt came within a day of missing payroll when the credit markets seized.</p>

<p>To make sense of how a particular school faired, you really do have to look at just how much they have to cut over the next few years and what that entails.</p>

<p>Is MIT buried in the list interestdddad provided in post 537 and I just don’t see it? I didn’t find it when I looked at the information linked by sm74 in post 533 either. Probably right in front of me, but where?</p>