@tangerinetake1 , hi from a fellow NCer. I noticed this thread earlier but forgot to respond.
I think your stats are great and will make many universities accessible to you. It’s easy to browse CC and assume you don’t have a chance at a “good” college if you don’t have a 4.4 and 1500. I’m glad you ridded yourself of that bad logic. Your stats are fine, your ECs are okay, and you will have more acceptances than rejections.
The second step of course is affordability. Right now, it seems you’re uncertain as to what your family can afford. Basically it seems CCers fall into three camps, which again are not necessarily representative of all American college applicants. On CC, most seem to be equally divided by families that can pay the full cost of any university they choose ($50K-$75K/yr) and families that can pay about half that ($25K-$45K/yr). Either is a great position to be in and provides those families with the opportunity to shop options. Most families have a lot less in the college budget, and most students focus on in-state colleges because those are the only ones that are readily affordable. I open with the “usual CC” poster because just as you realized you kicked the assumption that certain schools would be beyond your reach stats wise, you should also realize your college application-decision journey will also be different than the CC families who have substantially larger budgets than most regular Americans.
With an EFC of 0, you’ve discovered that when you run EFCs many Top50 colleges will end up affordable" … if you are accepted. With your stats, it makes sense to apply to any college you decide is a fit for you. Be aware that for most T30 schools, you are very likely to be denied admission. Also be aware that some will admit but require you to include debilitating loans in your FinAid package. It’s generally accepted that the DSLoan for 4 years is probably the max you should consider taking, and those will total approximately $27K over 4 years. If you need more than that amount, the college should probably be considered unaffordable to you.
So, where to begin your search? I like the evolution of your search so far. You are really absorbing new information and rejigging your list. You have a budget of approximately $8K/yr out of pocket.
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Don’t focus on only one NC public university, and don’t assume UNC is a reach. If I had to bet, I’d say you probably have over a 50% chance at being admitted to UNC. However, you should also apply to at least three other in-state universities. If all else fails, you need to know you have affordable options on the menu. And if UNC says no, you need to have multiple in-state options because some may offer slightly more aid and/or admit you into their Honors College which will be beneficial to you.
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Really look inside yourself and determine if your original preferences are deal breakers. Just as you’ve changed some of the schools you’re considering, you may also decide to include new regions and/or city sizes into your thinking. At the least, consider the school itself more than the location. Any school that seems like a fit for you, regardless of city size, should remain under consideration until you have a more definitive list. Once you have “enough” schools, you can start dismissing some for whatever reasons you may have.
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Never forget that you are looking for significant amounts of FinAid to reduce your COA down to the amount your family can afford. That means your list will probably need to be larger, initially, than many other students on CC. You’re not just looking for fit, you’re looking for fit and serious $$.
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While it’s great to keep higher-ranking name-brand schools in mind, do not ignore those with less name appeal to you right now. Once you get past the T40 schools who offer good need-based FinAid (but are difficult to be admitted to) you will discover that many of the schools that will offer you the FinAid you require may lie outside the T100 and/or may be Liberal Arts Colleges. Do not be offput by that because there are many outstanding colleges out there.
I love your initial remade beginner list. Goucher is often overlooked. Dickinson will probably be attractive to you. Trinity should be a natural fit.
Definitely look at some of the schools recommended by others. Specifically for you, Manhattan College, Elon, Denison, American, SMU, Haverford, St Joseph’s. My niece graduated from Wellesley last year and I think that might be a good fit for you if you don’t mind an all-female setting. Also consider Macalester, Ursinus, Marist, Rollins, Eckerd, Loyola Maryland, and Connecticut College. If you’re willing to travel further west, Reed, Occidental, Loyola Marymount, Gonzaga, U of Portland, and many others should be targets.
Be careful about focusing too much on OOS public universities. Even the schools mentioned as being very generous with Merit Aid will usually fall short of offering enough to drop under $10K/yr. Those Merit inducements are more for families that have budgets around $15K-$30K/yr. Some OOS publics that might have a better chance at being affordable in your situation (great stats) are OSU, a couple of the Alabama and Mississippi universities, and maybe UVA which will meet need for accepted students. The AZ schools will not likely come down far enough, and neither will most of the FL schools. UMd will probably not be affordable, nor UDelaware, Temple, etc. Apply to a few if you want to take your shot, but keep in mind that 95% of OOS publics will not end up with a COA in your affordability range.
My S20 was in almost the same situation as you (but with lower stats) and he came out of last spring with several good and affordable options up and down the east coast and beyond. If you approach this the right way, I have no doubt you will have even better options and more options.