But every school has different needs - if you already have 4 blonde sopranos it wouldn’t matter if Kelli O’Hara walked in the door…
IDK, @toowonderful! If you were head of a program and you had 4 really good blonde sopranos, and a PHENOMENAL blonde soprano walked in, you wouldn’t want that phenomenal one, too? If it were me, I’d take that 5th one. But obviously, I’m not the head of a program, but I could be wrong. I just can’t help but think that if someone THAT good came in, they’d get snapped up by a top program regardless of type. It’s an interesting question, and we’ll never know the answer unless the head of a program comes on the board and weighs in… 
But if you have a choice between Kelli O’Hara and Audra McDonald (b/c let’s face it, tippy top programs do) and you DON’T have an African American soprano (and a finite number of slots)… But as you say- we will never really know. Personally, I believe there is no one SO talented that they would be accepted at EVERY program, b/c everyone has different needs- but everyone is entitled to their own opinion
I knew I was going to catch it for posting that.
I can’t speak for all programs (obviously :)), but in the program in which I teach we accept our top ranked (audition/ interview rank) students who we think are most going to thrive in, and add to our program. Not as much in terms of type (although that does come into play within the make-up of a particular class in a given year), but in terms of talent, energy, and interests. The interview and essay are a large part of our program admissions process. There are very talented prospective students who we do not admit to the program because they do not seem to be quite the right fit for our educational and training community. These are often talented young artists who we believe may be more well served, and happier elsewhere. We know our educational philosophy and training model, and we are trying (through the audition, interview, and looking at the essay, recommendation, and transcript) to discern if we are a good match. There are prospective students we do not admit who could be a good match, but there are only so many places to offer, so we do sometimes turn down talented students who could have potentially thrived in the educational and training environment we have to offer. That is the numbers piece.
I can honestly say that in the 9 admissions cycles I have been a part of at JMU that we have NEVER made the decision NOT to offer a place in the class (sorry for the double negative) to a prospective student that we wanted in the program because we thought they were going to be admitted to a more competitive program and would choose to go there instead. We HAVE not admitted quite a few very talented prospective students who did not seem like they were the right fit for our program, and who have been admitted to other wonderful programs. This highlights the subjective nature of the process, and why no program that requires an audition can be considered a safety.
Because a lot of kids “know” each other via social media, we often hear from current students that some prospective students that we did not accept into our program were admitted into programs that would be considered more highly competitive. Programs that statistically accept a smaller % of students than we do, see more auditions, and pull from a more national pool. This again highlights the subjective nature of the arts, and of the university/ conservatory arts admissions process.
“Making it” to me is having the skills and confidence to embark on the journey to build a life that hopefully will make you content, happy, and fulfilled more of the time than not.
I know that we are as thrilled for our alums who are working on Broadway, National Tours, Film/ TV, Regional Theatre, etc… as our alums who are now working in Business, Medicine, Education, Event Planning, Social Work, Environmental Sustainability, Marketing, Sales, etc…
Ultimately, I believe that as college educators and professional arts training leaders we are responsible for empowering our students to develop the skills, but also to more clearly define their passions and goals. Also to encourage them to question the goals they set for themselves as 16 and 17 year-olds to confirm whether or not these are still the goals they want to pursue as young adults. Life is fluid… we make choices, have experiences, clarify and redefine our choices and goals, have more experiences. I think that is terrific, and so much preferable to the alternatives.
If Kelli or Audra walked in to any program they would have made room for BOTH of them 
You may very well be right- but I think that Kelli and Audra have doppelgangers out in the world who have talent, but did not end up in the right place at the right time etc. Talent is only the 1st part of the equation
Obviously Kelli and Audra currently would but they are polished performers who have grown through the years. It’s been 20+ years since they auditioned! They may have had nerves or an off audition…lol. Kyle Dean Massey is someone you would think would have been accepted all over. He dances, has a great look-seemingly the complete package yet he was not accepted to any programs he auditioned for. It just goes to show you it’s very subjective and I think @KatMT explained that very well.
Agree 100%, @toowonderful. I also think they have doppelgängers out there who are working as doctors and teachers and who knows what else. Not everyone who could have success in this field even tries. And I think there are struggling artists out there who may even have more talent/charisma/etc. than Kelli or Audra. The fame game is tricky. And I LOVED your answer, @KatMT. “Making it” should be defined as leading a fulfilling and productive and generous life, no matter what twists and turns and life events change things along the way. I hope that my alma mater is still proud of me even though I am not at ALL doing what I told them I wanted to do when I was 17.
@sbc - I am pretty late in posting this but here is a suggested list of schools that we looked at or that friends looked at that are not posted at the top of this forum and may be of interest to consider using to help balance a list. Some of them, like Belmont, Alabama, and Wisconsin-Stevens Point, I would term “More Selective” to “Very Selective” (vs. “Very Selective” to “Most Selective”, which I would apply to almost all of the schools posted at the top of this forum) and, hence, they won’t help balance a list much. Some of them hold walk-in auditions at Unifieds, and some hold auditions in late March or April, and can be added somewhat late in the process.
This list is just some suggestions, it is not intended to be all-inclusive or in any way judge the quality or “competitiveness” of these or any other programs. I have no doubt that there are many other great programs not posted at the top of this forum that merit consideration.
AUDITION BFA PROGRAMS
Abilene Christian TX
Baylor BFA w/MT Track TX*
Belmont TN
Catawba College NC
Central Michigan MI
Central Washington WA
Cornish College of the Arts BFA w/MT Emp WA
Drake IA
East Carolina NC*
Howard DC
Kent State OH
Lindenwood MO
Long Island Post NY
Missouri State MO
Northern Kentucky KY
Oakland MI
Rockford College IL
Samford AL
Seton Hill PA
Southeast Missouri State MO
Southern Illinois-Carbondale IL
Tulane BFA (Music Dept) LA
U Alabama at Birmingham AL
U Memphis TN
U Montevallo AL
U South Dakota SD
U Tampa FL
U Texas at Arlington TX
U Utah UT
U Wisconsin-Stevens Point WI
West Virginia WV
Western Carolina NC
AUDITION BA
Bowling Green State BA Comm w/MT specialization OH
DeSales PA
Fairleigh Dickinson Madison/Florham BA w/MT Conc NJ
Pepperdine BA Music & Theatre CA
Plymouth State NH
San Diego State U BA Acting & MT CA
Seton Hill PA
U Alabama AL
U Kentucky - BA w/MT Cert KY
U New Hampshire NH
U Washington-Seattle WA
Western Connecticut State CT