Help! What are my chances? :)

<p>Hello everyone, I am going to be a sophomore undergrad at a Cal State University this fall. In addition, I am a Political Science major with a hobby in writing. Ever since my senior year of high school, I knew I would attend this Cal State and then transfer to another university during my junior year. Now that I am getting ready to apply for transfer this fall, I just need some help figuring out what my reasonable chances are of getting accepted to several universities. First off, like many of us, I dream big and want to go to one of the best universities. So here are a list of potential schools I would like to apply to: UCLA, UC Berkeley, Stanford, NYU, University of Chicago, Columbia University, Georgetown University, Johns Hopkins University, Duke University and depending on location and strength of major, other Ivy League and top rated schools. I just want to know what my chances are because one, I don't want to set my heart on one and not get in and two, because I don't want to waste my money applying to a school I have no shot at getting into. In my later years of high school, I knew my GPA and SAT scores were too low to get me into the schools I wanted to go to. So I told myself to work hard and get a solid college GPA, and I have. My college GPA is a 3.85 with a total of 44 units taken during my first year. Now my high school GPA was a 3.79 weighed and a 3.68 unweighed, my SAT scores were 600 Math, 530 Writing, 490 Reading for a total score of 1620. But during my junior and senior year of high school, my GPA was a 4.167. During my freshmen year of college I have worked a job at a restaurant and went to school, other then that, not much to put on an application. I write a lot and hope to finish my novel by graduate school, but I am not sure if that is enough to show a college. I just need some help and would appreciate it if I could get some good honest feedback. Don't be afraid to hurt my feelings. Thanks!</p>