I’m confused on the ‘no cost constraints’, but hesitancy to visit a school to which you’ll be full pay. Or did I miss something? Yes, I probably missed something.
Also, could you combine your ‘far reaches’ and ‘reaches’ and just say you are picking 4 ‘Reach’ schools, 2 of which are WUSTL and Middlebury? 
I agree with @hunt. I’d have your daughter do more apps to reaches and high reaches than 2 and 2.
Tulane, Case Western, McGill and U Rochester are not safeties. Based on their overall admit rates and the stats for students who get in – some of whom are hooked – they pretty much can’t be safeties. UVM is your true safety.
I think Rochester and Tulane are high matches or matches while McGill and Case Western are matches or low matches.
UMich, Colby and Emory are high matches.
The rest are low reaches or reaches though chances improve, sometimes dramatically, if you apply ED. But only do that if that is the #1 choice regardless of where else your D is admitted.
Overall it’s a pretty solid list, provided you can afford the schools.
Definitions in this post:
Reach: 5-15% chance
Low reach: 15-25% chance
High match: 25-40% chance
Match: 40-60% chance
Low match: 60-90% chance
Safety: >90% chance
I am going with @Hunt . I don’t understand why anyone would need to apply to four safeties. If you have done your homework, one safety is enough, and two are plenty (so that if you get in nowhere else, you still have an opportunity to exercise choice). The important thing is to love your safety enough to feel happy about going there.
Also, EA applications can turn matches or even reaches into safeties. If you get accepted to a school you love and can afford EA, that’s the ultimate safety. At that point, you can use the rest of your applications on reaches, or just quit while you’re ahead – either is fine. But you don’t have to be constrained by some rigid plan about how many of each type to apply to if you are accepted EA.
A few comments on the list, with the caveat that I haven’t been following all of these schools closely in the last few years.
I think Michigan is very stats-driven, especially for OOS students who would be full pay. It is a perfectly good match, maybe even a safety (but it would be insulting to say that, so I wouldn’t). Academically, it is the strongest university on your list. If your child were accepted there EA, she would be pretty much assured of a great outcome no matter what else happened.
McGill is a perfect safety, because it’s very stats-driven and transparent, and its a great university in a special location.
People say that some applicants with stats like these have been rejected at Colby. I find that hard to believe, frankly. Colby is a great LAC that is somewhat out of fashion right now because of its location. I wouldn’t call it a safety, but it’s fair to consider it a match, so long as you actually visit and show some enthusiasm about going there.
Like others, I can’t tell the difference between your reaches and your far reaches. I don’t think it matters, either.
If she is going to medical school, there is no reason whatsoever to pay for the UG, choose tuition free option or higher Merit. Medical schools do not pay much attention to the name of the applicant’s college.
"People say that some applicants with stats like these have been rejected at Colby. I find that hard to believe, frankly. Colby is a great LAC that is somewhat out of fashion right now because of its location. "
Colby is very much in fashion if you look at the huge uptick in its applications in the past few years. That said, I still think it is a match for OP’s daughter.
@wisteria100 good ideas about tulane, thanks!
@ucbalumnus and @miamidap I’ve suggested (and suggested) that she look at some of these schools. My S, with much weaker stats was offered lots of merit at kalamazoo, a ctcl school, and 93% of their pre-med students find placement in medical school. My daughter points out that she’s not sure she’ll go pre-med and wants to explore other options. My wife points out that a degree from say u mich will probably carry more weight with grad schools were she not to go pre-med. She also points out that our son wasn’t sure what he wanted to study but u mich is strong in so many areas, in the end, it didn’t really matter what he chose, he was going to be in a great program.
@2muchquan lol!! what you missed is that if I start flying all over the country to visit schools, I won’t have 2muchquan left. On your reach vs. far reach idea, I suppose I could just have one big list and say she’s definitely applying to the safeties, matches, middlebury and wash u.
@prezbucky if interested, pls see post 33 for naviance data
@jhs all good points, I particularly agree that u mich EA would be an absolute home run. My sense is that it’s actually her number two school but she feels compelled to attend dartmouth or williams if admitted. UM has gotten progressively more selective, I think admittance rate was 42% when my son was admitted 3 years ago and now down to 26%. so definitely not a safety and perhaps a reach.
@JHS and @doschicos we’re thrilled she likes colby, the challenge is they offer admittance to around 750 females each year…a fairly small number. on the plus side, they’ve accepted 7 of 14 kids from our hs over the last 10 years and my D has the strongest raw stats of anyone that’s applied.
I agree that Vermont, McGill and Rochester are pretty solid safeties. Your school seems to have reliable Naviance data. McGill is very stats driven. Only caveat, as someone else pointed out, is she needs to declare her major/college from the start. My S was accepted and it made his short list. We loved Rochester. Just wish they had given my D more $$$! If you start to get nervous safety-wise, you can always toss Bing, Geneseo or Stony Brook in at the last minute.
if Duke is her fave but all means ED! Increases the odds. She can also apply EA to UMich and Tulane and rolling to McGill. I don’t know where in NY you live, but Tulane held a number of events on Long Island when my kids were applying (2014) Call admissions and find out when they will be in your area. Also be aware that there is a Dec. 1st deadline to apply for all of their top scholarships (Paul Tulane, etc.)
All others are pretty much a toss-up. Could go either way - of you could end up in WL purgatory due to yield protection as @doschicos points out.
A few questions: How did she do on APs? If mostly 5s and 4s that helps. Has she taken any SAT Subject Tests? Not sure off the top which schools require but if she’s thinking STEM high scores can bolster an app. The real problem is that there are tons of kids with similar stats. How would she answer the question: Quietdesperation’s D is the one who_______________. If you’re unhooked, you’ve got to find/create your own hook. Something about you that is quirky, memorable, will set you apart.
Good luck and keep us posted!
thanks @4Gulls , I realize now I may have misrepresented her APs, she’ll have 8 by the time she graduates. To date, she’s only taken one AP exam (the max her school allows through soph year), and she did manage a 5.She’s taking 3 this year and 4 next. She’s scheduled for SAT IIs later this year. There have been so many stories of kids with similar or better stats rejected from all their reaches and matches…hopefully, this list works for her. I guess she’ll definitely get into rochester and mcgill, and those are great outcomes.
we think she has a good personal hook, she and some of her friends have been raising money and awareness for girl’s education since 8th grade, each year picking a different country/culture. Hopefully that plays well somewhere!
I know people will have different opinions on this but she wants to take one more crack at the act to see if she can get to the 75th percentile at duke. Worst case, if she can move up a point in science or math, she’ll superscore to 35 which may help with the superscorers (LACs and wash u).
Has she taken ACT twice now? No harm in taking it a 3rd time in hopes of a “true” 34 (or 35) but to be honest if she’s got a 33 w/out super scoring I don’t think an extra point or two is going to be what tips the scales. It will be something else - her essays, her LORs, her interviews, something about her activities that resonates with the Adcom committee.
yes, she’s taken it twice, 33 both times. she scores 34-35 on full practice tests. we’ve read that for an unhooked candidate, best to be >= 75th percentile.
" from say u mich will probably carry more weight with grad schools were she not to go pre-med. She also points out that our son wasn’t sure what he wanted to study but u mich is strong in so many areas, in the end, it didn’t really matter what he chose, he was going to be in a great program."
“One can do whatever she wishes, but having huge loans at the begging of young life is a drag that could be easily avoided.”
I couldn’t agree more but our kids won’t have loans.
I moved u mich to reach, added a couple of schools and included aggregated naviance statistics. Again, my d won’t apply to all these schools, these are just the schools currently in consideration. She’s visited most of the schools on her list. I’ve added an nv for schools she doesn’t plan to visit.
looks to me like we need more matches though some of the reaches might be matches based on naviance stats and some of the safeties might be matches based on overall selectivity.
basic stats:
caucasian female
4.0 unw, 8aps by the time she graduates, two languages
act - 33, 34 superscore, plans to try one more time
ecs - ok
no hooks
mcgill 14/14 with gpa>=88 and 2075 sat
university of vermont 100/100 with gpa>=88, sat >= 1800
tulane(nv) 33/35 with gpa>=90, sat >= 1900 (denies look like yield protection)
case western 6/6 with gpa>=91, sat >= 1900
rochester 31/33 with gpa>=90, sat >= 1800
colby 5/6 with gpa>=95, sat >= 2000
emory(nv) 6/8 with gpa>=95, sat >= 2075
u mich 20/24 with gpa>=94, sat >= 2000 (reach because our school is 1/12 over last 2 years)
middlebury 8/12 with gpa>=95, sat >= 2150
wash U 5/5 with gpa>=95, sat >= 2200
cmu 8/10 with gpa>=92, sat >= 2150
duke 1/25 with gpa=99, sat = 2200 (*lots of people rejected with much better stats than D)
dartmouth 1/19 with gpa = 98, sat=2275 (one rejection with better stats than D)
williams 1/12 with gpa = 98, sat=2300 (two rejections with better stats than D)
amherst 2/5 with gpa>=95 sat >= 2150 (one rejection with better stats than D)
vanderbilt(nv) 1/4 with gpa=94 sat = 2100 (many rejections with similar stats of D)
Rice(nv) 1/4 with gpa=94 sat = 2050 (many rejections with similar stats of D)
Northwestern 3/7 with gpa=95 sat = 2200 (many rejections with similar stats of D)
*I noted “rejections with similar stats comments” to differentiate schools that have denied kids with similar stats as opposed to schools where we don’t have data with similar kids. I’m thinking she may have a better chance at the latter. Based on this line of thinking, it seems to me she has a better chance with a dartmouth ed app than duke.
Richmond and Wake Forest would likely be matches. Not sure if Wake still has a reputation for grade deflation, which is a consideration for a premed.
Would she consider a women’s college? Good support for women in sciences.
she visited wake and liked it, looks like a match, she may decide to apply but I think she’s a little worried about the prevalence of greek life. She just laughs when I mention a women’s college…not for her. Richmond would be a good safety but at least two of her five best friends are applying and she doesn’t want them to feel like she’s taking a spot. We’re starting to think about kenyon as a potential match.
I think someone noted upthread, but Naviance is pretty useless for CMU. Acceptance rates vary by an order of magnitude depending on which school you apply to. More useful is to look here: https://admission.enrollment.cmu.edu/pages/undergraduate-admission-statistics
My D wouldn’t consider a women’s college, either. The ones that are part of a consortium or that are near coed schools with easy cross-registration offer the best of both worlds, IMHO.
thanks mathmom, very helpful!
Is she really going to apply to 18 colleges?