It’s too late for the OP, but for others…identify your sure thing schools first. In other words, don’t visit all the reach schools, and marches first. Visit those sure thing schools and find an affordable one your kid would like to attend. Or two.
2 things are very real:
Nothing trumps the institutional mission, which is always a moving target.
Gender balancing is real. Your brilliant unhooked daughter could very easily become a causality of it. When you checked Naviance and the records at your school, did you also check by gender. You can go to the CDS to see the number of male vs female applicants and admissions outcomes.
While the article is old, it is still very relevant
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/opinion/to-all-the-girls-ive-rejected.html?_r=0
@NYMomof2 When my son was admitted the admission rate was something like 40%, three years later down to 29% I think I read somewhere that UM’s admitted student profile is looking more and more like an ivy league school. Still, I’ve just provided one data point, perhaps after my son’s first year, they decided to blacklist our school 
As for your suggestions, she visited vassar and u chicago, hated Vassar (not sure why), understood why people loved chicago but decided it wasn’t for her. Barnard is out on the grounds it’s an all-girls school.
@LBowie thanks for that information. that’s a funny theory and I’m certainly not offended, but no, I don’t think it has to the with the name of the school, I’d guess it has to do more with where the school sits on the US News ranking. My middle son didn’t look at the list once but I think my D is caught up in perceived prestige. We did actually suggest clemson, to no avail.
@thumper1 sage advice, wish we’d done that!
@sybbie719 I can’t control shifts in mission, the best I can do is analyze available data. I do agree, as dochicos pointed out a couple of replies ago, that she’s at a gender disadvantage. Naviance (at least the version our school uses), does not differentiate candidates by gender (perhaps that was your point). I did just look at the CDS, it was a very good suggestion, I didn’t realize there was a such a disparity in the gender of the applicants. Still, the rate of admission for men and women are fairly close, 28% and 26% respectively, are you arguing the 2% difference should change my categorization from match to reach?
!. it is not an “all-girls” school, but a Womens college. Your daughter would have the opportunity to cross register at Columbia or even live in the dorms at Columbia. I would not be so quick to have her write it off for being an “all-girls” school.
I know several brilliant young women who went to Barnard fairly recently, in different fields ranging from pre-med to literature. They were all very happy there, said that there was a lot of contact with professors, and all have been very successful after graduation. I would definitely suggest that your D give Barnard another chance. It would be easy to visit if you are in NY.
As for safeties, what about Franklin and Marshall or Skidmore? I would think they’d be safeties for your D.
^thanks, she visited skidmore, didn’t like it, we asked her to look at f&m (a family friend attends), and she passed.
apologies, yes @sybbie719 a women’s school. in any case, she doesn’t want to go to school in nyc. I believe the driver is maintaining enough geographical separation so mom and dad can’t drop in for lunch.
just sat with her and asked for top 15, emory, tulane and vandy are out, wisconsin and cornell are in. our school has a great record of placement at cornell , almost 1/3rd of the 100 or so students that applied over the last 10 years were admitted and that rate has remained steady over the last 5 years. she’ll visit next month and decide if it stays on the list. not sure if wisconsin is a match or a safety, based on naviance, they’ve never denied anyone from our school with a gpa>=90 and an sat >=1800.
she’s really struggling on ed of duke vs. dartmouth.
basic stats:
caucasian female
4.0 unw, 8aps by the time she graduates, two languages
act - 33, 34 superscore, plans to try one more time
sat II bio - 790
languages, spanish and chinese since 8th grade, taught herself latin this past summer
attended Tufts vet summer program, shadowed vets, attended lectures, etc. competitive admittance.
ecs -
since 8th grade worked with partners to help raise money and awareness for girl’s education in developing countries. Chose a different country each year
varsity tennis captain
destination imagination - 4th globally in 10th grade
chinese club vp
mount holyoke book award
no hooks
safety
mcgill 14/14 with gpa>=88 and 2075 sat
university of vermont 100/100 with gpa>=88, sat >= 1800
rochester 31/33 with gpa>=90, sat >= 1800
match
colby 5/6 with gpa>=95, sat >= 2000
wisconsin 9/9 gpa >=90, sat >=1800
reach
u mich 20/24 with gpa>=94, sat >= 2000 (reach because our school is 1/12 over last 2 years)
middlebury 8/12 with gpa>=95, sat >= 2150
wash U 5/5 with gpa>=95, sat >= 2200
cmu 8/10 with gpa>=92, sat >= 2150
cornell
far reach
duke 1/25 with gpa=99, sat = 2200 (*lots of people rejected with much better stats than D)
dartmouth 1/19 with gpa = 98, sat=2275 (one rejection with better stats than D)
williams 1/12 with gpa = 98, sat=2300 (two rejections with better stats than D)
Rice(nv) 1/4 with gpa=94 sat = 2050 (many rejections with similar stats of D)
berkeley 2/4 with gpa>=95, sat>=2200
*I noted “rejections with similar stats comments” to differentiate schools that have denied kids with similar stats as opposed to schools where we don’t have data with similar kids. I’m thinking she may have a better chance at the latter. Based on this line of thinking, it seems to me she has a better chance with a dartmouth ed app than duke.
Yay, I’m glad Wisconsin has been added to the list! I can’t remember: has your daughter said what she might like to major in?
Wisconsin is likely a safety for her. Great school!
Duke vs Dartmouth for ED? Usually ED is for the school that stands out as your number one choice…bar none.
These schools are SOOOO different. Different size, different climate, different type of location, different sports culture.
What exactly is your daughter looking for that these two schools are tied!
However, there are a lot of cross admits between Dartmouth and Duke
"My theory is the name of the school is important. Northwestern just doesn’t sound fancy! It is confused with Northeastern! "
Not out here it ain’t! I would never have heard of Northeastern if it weren’t for CC.
I live in CT. I would NEVER confuse Northwestern with Northeastern.
From my POV, Northwestern has mighty good name recognition!
Honestly, I can see a tossup between Dartmouth and Duke. They both seem – to me – to have a certain kind of traditionalism. And Greek life. Not my cup of tea, but both excellent schools academically as well. It doesn’t surprise me that they’d be a tie for someone.
vermont is off the list, down to 14. Here’s the thing @porcupine98 , she doesn’t like greek life. and she knows greek life is a big component of both places.
One problem I see with her dropping both Vermont and Tulane - she’s not only dropping 2 safeties but she’s dropping to schools that have both merit aid AND of Early Action.
I didn’t think her list was as reachy as other posters before but I feel its getting reachy now.
I believe she did a pre-vet program? And she doesn’t seem averse to large schools. And you are in NY state ? Seems good that Cornell is on the list. Any reason it wasn’t earlier?
@doschicos she has mcgill, rochester and wisconsin as safeties, pretty sure she’ll get money at rochester (my oldest did with weaker stats). Surely three safeties is enough.
@PNWedwonk yes, she did a pre-vet program at tufts this summer. The reason cornell wasn’t on the list was its reputation as a competitive (vs. collaborative) environment. She’s done some research and isn’t sure that’s still true. Anyhow, she’ll visit, talk to a friend or two that attends and then make a decision around applying.