Help with the final list reach/target/safety

Chance Me / Match Me!
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Hi,
Looking for help to finalize the list for my daughter - senior at a large, well ranked public high school in Southern California.
She is leaning towards private, either smaller university or liberal arts college. She has siblings at Brown and Williams and both appeal to her from visits, but she doesn’t quite match her siblings numbers.
She thinks she’d like to go east coast.
Cost is a factor, we are looking for schools that meet close to 100% demonstrated need.
Her stats
Unweighted gpa 3.86
Weighted 4.8
Will have completed 13 AP classes at the end of this year. Has scored six 4s and one 5 so far on AP exams
Other classes were all honors if it was an option

1550 SAT, one sitting, 780 math 770 reading

Letters of rec should be strong

Extracurriculars
Four years cross country, captain of team junior and senior year
Four years track, captain junior year (anticipating captain this year)
TEchnology student association four years, captain of team for last two years, qualified for nationals junior year
Key club (service club) secretary
Worked s last three years as a paid tutor
Volunteer at a summer STEM camp for elementary kids

Interests/intended study - she isn’t 100% sure but is leaning toward chemistry
Unique circumstances she attends high school in a wealthy neighborhood (due to a work permit) but resides in a lower income area, has provided an interesting experience for her, along with a good education

We plan to apply to a large number of schools. I do know how much work it is, she’s my fourth, but I also have seen how random the rejections can be.

We’re struggling with what makes a match versus a safety.

Here’s what we have so far, more ideas are great,
along with “chancing” and placement into categories.

REACHES
Amherst/Williams (she’s picking one)
Princeton
Dartmouth/UPenn (picking one)
Swarthmore
Johns Hopkins
Georgetown
Cornell
UCLA
UC Berkeley

MATCHES
Bowdoin
Colgate
Vassar
Emory
Hamilton
Middlebury
Colby
Haverford
Bates
UC San Diego
UC Irvine

SAFETIES (we’re struggling here, a lot of the financial aide drops away as the school ranking drops)
Reed
UC riverside
UC Davis

Thanks for any input!

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Have you used the net price calculator on each college’s web site? Claims to “meet need” result in different net prices due to each college defining “need” differently.

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No, not yet for every school, but good idea.

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I can only give my opinion about the UC’s but she needs to calculate her 3 UC GPA’s: GPA Calculator for the University of California – RogerHub

I would put UC Davis in the Match category. UCSD/UCI more in the High Match/Low Reach category. All the UC’s have gotten highly competitive especially since going test blind. 2022 admit rates will not be posted until January/February but the majority of the UC’s showed decreased acceptance rates for in-coming Fall 2022 Freshman.

Based on her capped weighted UC GPA, here are the admit rates for 2021 but not major specific.

Campus 4.20+ 3.80-4.19 3.40-3.79 3.00-3.39
Berkeley 30% 11% 2% 1%
Davis 85% 55% 23% 10%
Irvine 60% 31% 14% 1%
Los Angeles 29% 6% 1% 0%
Merced 97% 98% 96% 89%
Riverside 97% 92% 62% 23%
San Diego 72% 25% 2% 0%
Santa Barbara 73% 28% 4% 1%
Santa Cruz 91% 81% 46% 9%

Since she is focused on private and LAC’s, she should be competitive for many on her list.

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Thank you! I need to keep an eye on how the UCs have changed since the testing requirement changed.

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I do not think that Reed is a safety. I might call it a match.

With a 10% acceptance rate, I do not think that Bowdoin is a match. I do not think that Middlebury is a match either. I would call both a reach, or perhaps “reasonable reach”.

She might indeed get accepted to all three of these schools, but I would not count on it.

What is your budget? Some schools that do not meet full need do have merit aid that your daughter might qualify for.

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Thank you for the input on match versus reach, all of these schools have rapidly shrinking acceptance rates and it’s been hard to place them.
Budget is minimal. She has four younger siblings and a limited family income. She has a college saving account that will divide up to about 7,000 a year for her. Scholarships would be of interest to bridge the gap, and federal loans if they aren’t excessive (5 thousand a year or so).

Any thoughts on safeties to add to the list? East coast, liberal arts colleges.

Thank you!

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First off your daughter is AMAZING. Can’t imagine your other two if she can’t keep up. Her #s and overall portfolio are fantastic.

Are the UCs affordable? Obviously you’d get in state tuition but is even that out of budget.

If she wants to be East Coast, why Reed ?

Are you ED’ing? I can see her getting into Bates. Not sure Swarthmore fits with others on the list.

First school I thought of with meets need and a more likely is Franklin & Marshall. Lafayette may be another. Neither is an easy in but they’re a bit easier. Connecticut College, Skidmore, and Union would be good add ins as well. For mid size, Miami meets need as does Rochester. She would find acceptances here.

For publics, UAH is smaller 10k and check out the FAU Wilkes Honors College in Jupiter FL. UAH will be dirt cheap and FAU also should come in at a decent price with merit. The Wilkes Program is small and personalized.

But is your need get your to $40k or do you need to be at $10k?

Good luck.

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Thank you!! You threw out some schools we haven’t yet looked into and definitely will.

UCs are less affordable than the more elite privates, but of course, she may not get in,
so given that she’s a SoCal kid, we’ve kept them on our radar. Her college fund and our contribution will end up being about 10,000 a year and I’d like to see her leave with no more than 30,000 in debt, so loans of about 7,000 a year are tolerable, hoping either grants or scholarships to cover the rest.

She is an amazing kid. A good person, and we’re so proud of her. Hard to watch all these amazing young people go through this process, so different than it was for me 30 years ago! But she has a good perspective on it and I’m confident she’ll end up somewhere great for her.

Your added schools are super helpful! Thanks!

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Check the NPCs on the privates.

UAH - she’d get 19.9k off $23k tuition so $3k tuition plus room and board.

FAU not sure the cost but the experience with only 500 kids on the Honors campus might work for her.

HOpefully the at needs colleges come through. Just see which are need aware. That may cause issue. Add W&L too. My kid got in with way lesser stats. They meet need. .

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I agree with @tsbna44; your daughter sounds amazing! This is how I would sort your current list of schools:

Extremely Likely (80-99+%)

Likely (60-79%)

Toss-Up (40-59%)

  • Reed

Low Probability (20-39%)

Lower Probability (less than 20%)

Has your daughter considered any women’s colleges? Their admissions rates are higher than coed schools with similar applicant profiles. Some schools that meet 100% of need as the school defines it that you may want to consider are:

  • Lafayette (PA ): Likely teetering toward toss-Up
  • College of the Holy Cross (MA): Likely
  • Occidental (CA): Toss-up teetering towards Likely…yes, this is not the NE, but transportation costs should be low
  • Union (NY): Likely
  • Trinity (CT): Toss-up
  • Franklin & Marshall: Toss-up teetering towards likely
  • Smith (MA): Women’s college, Toss-up
  • Wellesley (MA): Women’s college, Low probability
  • Wake Forest (NC): Toss-up
  • Kenyon (OH): Toss-up teetering towards likely
  • Denison (OH): Toss-up teetering towards likely
  • Mount Holyoke (MA): Women’s College, Likely
  • Connecticut College: Likely
  • Davidson (NC): Low Probability teetering towards toss-up
  • Bryn Mawr (PA ): Women’s college, teetering between Likely and Toss-up
  • Oberlin (OH): Toss-up
  • Scripps (CA): Women’s college, Toss-up
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Thank you! Great list and appreciate the likelihood on all of them.
Womens colleges were initially a no for her, but I think it is work that looking into a few, particularly those that look like matches/likely admits, as we are struggling with that part of her list.
Thanks so much!

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You’re welcome! I neglected to mention earlier that I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if your daughter got into any of the schools in the low or lower probability category; she is truly a great applicant. It’s just that there are so many highly-qualified applicants for the spots at those schools that the odds are against all applicants…it is in no way a negative reflection on your daughter. I think she has a very bright future ahead of her!

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You should consider checking out Centre College. Small LAC in Danville, KY. About an hour’s drive to major airport. Very safe small town, about 15,000-ish people. Cool downtown area with shops & restaurants an easy walk from campus, vibrant local community.

According to my DD’s Naviance info, here’s some other facts:

  • 73% acceptance rate, so she’d be a shoe in.
  • residential college - 98% live on campus all 4 years
  • 1450 undergrads
  • merit scholarship info available at Scholarships & Fellowships | Centre College. Your DD has a high enough GPA that she’d probably qualify for their ‘faculty scholarship.’ There are also 3 ‘premier’ scholarships (aka competitive scholarship which is for full tuition+ or full cost of attendance, based on which scholarship it is).

The school has a “Jan term” (which a lot of LACs also have) where you take a 3-week long class in January in just one subject. Options include doing your Jan term course abroad w/a Centre college professor…the topics are pretty cool…lots of interdisciplinary stuff.

Small class sizes. Odds are very high that she’d be able to do research w/a professor as an undergrad. The college guarantees that every student will graduate in 4 years, have an opportunity to do 1 study abroad, and do undergrad research and/or internship while there.

Net price calculator is Centre College - Net Price Calculator.

also, the college has a vibrant fine arts community. There’s a glass blowing studio on campus. Plenty of sports, too, if your kid wants to do athletics in college. The school also requires its students to attend a certain number of cultural events on campus per semester. Greek life is there, but from what I’ve read, it’s no big whoop if you’re not into it. It doesn’t dominate the campus culture like it does at some colleges.

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I love this. It sounds like the experience she’s looking for. Will check out the price calculator and scholarships.
Thanks so much!

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For an east coast likely (is anything really a safety anymore?) I’d suggest Union College. Based on her stats she’d likely get into their Presidential Honors Program which offers $100K (over 4 years), access to certain classes, and guaranteed paying summer internships. Plus - NO SUPPLEMENTS!

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None of the east coast LAC matches are a match unless you show a lot of love, visit, and apply ED. Then many of them are a match.

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I like this and she likes the location! Thank you!

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I worry that you’re correct, she statistically matches a bunch of them re:GPA and SAT but you are absolutely correct that she will likely still get rejections from most. Definitely won’t be able to visit them, we do plan to pick a school for early application, haven’t decided whether to shoot for a far reach with early action (maybe Princeton) or go all in for an LAC (maybe Amherst), her odds are still small, but better than regular decision.
Thank you for your input.

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Princeton doesn’t need to be shown love :-). You just need to show that you are strong. Very strong. They like to use the word exceptional, but I have seen many regular kids. And your school has to write that about your student.

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