How are my chances?

I’m an Asian male from an academically lax military school in a rather low-income neighborhood in the Bay Area, California (Average SAT score is about 900-1000 (1200 is pretty high), not many pass AP exams due to incompetent teachers and/or unmotivated students)I am looking to go to UC Berkeley to study either Applied Math or Statistics, but I do not know whether I am aiming too high or too low. Here is what I can put on my application.

GPA: 4.5 W, 4.0 UW (Class Rank 1 of 100)

Qualified for National Merit Scholarship from PSATs

SAT: 1530 (730 English, 800 Math), 21 essay

SAT II: 800 Math II, 780 Chem

APs: AP Biology (did not take exam), AP Lit (4), AP Lang (4)

Dual Enrollment: Taken Japanese 1A, Calculus I, II, III, Linear Algebra, Differential Equations, Discrete Math, Intro to Statistics, Physics A-B-C, Chemistry A-B, Biology A-B (Physics is taught in 3 semesters here, Chem in 2, and Biology in 2 as well) (A’s in all of them)

TA: TA’d AP Calculus AB and BC, and Pre-Calculus at school

Extra-curriculars: Was a private tutor for $35/hour, Worked 2 jobs since early high school, both of which were tutoring jobs where I tutor a variety of people from children to high school students from simple additions to calculus, Tutored at the Community College for math (Math Lab paid tutor), 300+ volunteer hours accumulated from working at the library, an Asian Cultural Center, and tutoring places, went abroad to Asia to work and tutor over winter break, held leadership positions at military school such as Platoon Leader, Training and Operations Officer, and Executive Officer (2nd in command of an entire company [4 companies in the school]), helped tutor after school at my school for math, and hosted an SAT prep class

Letters of Recommendation: Various Professors, bosses from my jobs- one of which is a Berkeley alum, school principal and counselors (I helped suggest the idea of a dual enrollment program for upperclassmen at my school, and was the first to test said program and reported my results. The program will be offered to all upperclassmen once my class graduate.)

UC GPA? https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/
You look like a qualified and competitive applicant. Best of luck and make sure you apply to a well rounded list of colleges which includes some solid Match and Safety schools.

Weighted GPA is 4.52, Weighted and Capped is 4.19

UCB is definitely within Reach. UCB will look at both UC GPA’s and your fully weighted is very competitive.

The following stats are based on the capped weighted UC GPA and not specific by major and 2016 data. Your test scores are excellent along with HS course rigor and EC’s.

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19:

UCB: 14%
UCLA: 14%
UCSD: 44%
UCSB: 54%
UCD: 58%
UCI: 65%
UCSC: 85%
UCR: 94%
UCM: 96%

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 4.20 or above:

UCB: 42%
UCLA: 54%
UCSD: 87%
UCSB: 85%
UCD: 91%
UCI: 94%
UCR/UCM: 98%

Any other schools within reach I could consider?

Do you want to stay in California? If so, then any of the other UC’s are worth applying. Have you looked at the Claremont Consortium (Pomona/Harvey Mudd/Claremont McKennna)? You are a very qualified and competitive applicant, so you could choose to apply to any top 25 schools. Do some research and visit some schools to help narrow your preferences.

I’m fine with out-of-state. I was looking at MIT but that might be a bit of a stretch to me. I think I’ll apply to Austin if it’s not too much of a stretch. I’ve looked at the Claremont schools, and want to apply to Pomona. Any out of states I should look at?

Try Vanderbilt! They like good stats.

You should get into Berkeley. Very stat-driven from what I understand.