A lot of the discussion here seems to be based on the premise that the OP and her daughter will make a list of colleges, apply to them, and let the chips fall where they may. But that’s not realistic.
First, all the discussion about “hard stats” and being a “top student” vs. being a “top applicant” is of questionable relevance. The student under discussion here already has a major other leg to her presentation – her swimming – in addition to a bunch of other ECs, and really good stats. Assuming she can write competently and present herself at least non-offensively, she will be attractive to many, many colleges, especially those where her swimming times make it look like she will be a team leader.
If the student (a) is willing to pass up on the hyperselective (and hyperprestigious) colleges like Harvard and Stanford, and to focus on DIII swimming prograns, (b) is not especially cost-sensitive, and © is willing to do her research and to make an effective commitment early, I suspect she will have a great outcome. That outcome will arrive via an ED acceptance somewhere with the enthusiastic support of the swim coach. But the process has to be happening now (and apparently it is).
There are many colleges – maybe not dozens, quite, but more than a dozen – that would seem to fit the student’s academic/social interests/needs perfectly and come close, at least, on her athletic goals. They include some schools with extremely low acceptance rates (Chicago, MIT, Pomona, Williams) and some that accept a much higher percentage of applicants (Reed, Smith, Rochester, NYU) and many in between. But overall admissions rates are irrelevant to a recruited athlete applying early decision with the full support of a coach. (Except maybe at MIT. Maybe.) The student’s stats ensure that she no admissions committee is going to deem her unacceptable per se, so if a college is one where the coach’s support is given any meaningful weight, she will be in. A total reach for anyone may be her match. Not every coach will want her, but I bet she will have some great options (and by “great,” I don’t necessarily mean hyperselective).
What’s less likely – although not impossible – is that she can “play the field” through the RD process, asking coaches to support her without committing to them, and still wind up at a high reach kind of college. She should see which coaches want to recruit her, do her homework on her fit with the colleges, coaches, and teams, and then make a decision and stick to it.
If she doesn’t take this advice . . . from a pure admissions standpoint, Berkeley, UCLA, Michigan, and UVa out-of-state certainly qualify as matches – and pretty darn good ones. Most other excellent public universities, with the exception of UNC, will be safeties, and not worse places for her because of that. She won’t have trouble finding her “tribe” at any of them (and she may find that her tastes in tribe get a little broader as she ages). On the private side, look at the ones I listed above – NYU, Reed, Rochester, Smith. Plenty to love there.