My D1 had 35 ACT, 800s on SAT II Math, Physics and Latin, 5s on 5 hard APs by application time, and registered for 5 more APs along with Math and a new foreign language at a college. Her lowest grade was a single A-. She was not Val or Sal because college courses don’t give A+'s, but she didn’t care.
ECs were not spectacular.
I round the probability of admission to the nearest 10th and consider 30% and under to be a reach, 40%-90% to be a match and 100% to be a safety.
We found Naviance to be extremely helpful. The results for her suburban public Boston HS did not correlate exactly with national admissions rates. There were schools that nobody got into (ex UNC). There were schools that were clearly extremely difficult to get into even for the top students. However, there were schools including certain Ivy league schools that anyone would ordinarily consider a reach that were really matches given her stats.
D made a list of 10 schools and ranked them and sent them her transcripts, recommendations, etc. She applied to University of Wisconsin as an OOS public safety in September and was admitted in October. So she had a safety bagged before her early common applications were due.
Her top 2 choices were EA so she applied to those early. She was admitted to both and eliminated all but one Ivy and one top LAC from her list. She then completed those last two applications and got denied by the Ivy and waitlisted by the LAC, but she had done overnight visits to the two EA schools before she heard, and she deposited to her top choice EA school on April 1 when the last rejection came out.
My point is that Naviance was really helpful in distinguishing schools that seem to really like our HS and schools that were just too reachy.
If you are mathematically inclined, and you can use the Naviance data to estimate her probability of admissions, treat them as independent, and can rank the choices. You can then calculate the probability of attending an institution as the product of the probability of getting into that school multiplied by the probability of rejection of more preferable choices. If you do that, you can quickly see that if the 5th choice has a 10% of getting in, then the probability of attending there is infinitesimal and probably not worth the time spent on an application. The key is to identify some schools that may have very low admissions rates, but are matches on your Naviance for your D. It’s also important to find match schools that she likes. Her top 2 or 3 choices she should apply no matter how poorly the predictions look. People do get admitted to these schools.
Your D has a great profile, and you should be proud regardless. Also important is not to make college admissions good or bad into a reflection of her self-worth. She’s worthy of any of them. Are they smart enough to select her? She will have great options.